1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. ODU @ GMU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Old Dominion Monarchs at George Mason Patriots

EagleBank Arena · at George Mason
#233ODUOld Dominion
@
#93GMUGeorge Mason
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ODUThis seasonGMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GMU 81–64 · win probability GMU 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

ODU 1, GMU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GMUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ODU 34.7, GMU 41.1. Allowed: ODU 42.0, GMU 28.9
GMUBig
ODU offense vs GMU defense
Offense 240th of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings
GMUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ODU 26.0%, GMU 31.3%. Defensive: ODU 69.7%, GMU 71.7%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: ODU plays 70.8 a game (81st fastest), GMU 64.7 (351st). Faster games mean more points
GMUBig
GMU offense vs ODU defense
Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 222nd, on the model’s ratings
ODUSmall
Three-pointers
ODU hits 36.0% and allows 32.0%; GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 36.2% and 35.2% of their shots
GMUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ODU 50.6 and allows 50.8; GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5
Context
Schedule so far
ODU has played the 188th-hardest schedule, GMU the 118th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GMUSmall
Home court
GMU at home. This season: GMU 0-0 at home, ODU 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ODU 15.4%, GMU 15.8%. Forced: ODU 14.5%, GMU 15.5%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ODU 34%, GMU 24%. Transfers in: ODU 4, GMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GMU -16.7—
Total—145.2—
Projected score—ODU 64.2 · GMU 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGMU -9.8—
1H total67.9—
1H projected scoreODU 29 · GMU 38.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

George Mason has the better starters

Position by position: Old Dominion 0, George Mason 5, even 0
Old DominionBetterGeorge Mason
G B. Benjamin TR5.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
GMUBig
G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91
G Z. Wiggins6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 46
GMUSmall
G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71
G S. Hubbard3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 10
GMUSmall
G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39
F Z. Weluche-Ume TR11.1 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29
GMUBig
F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
F J. Turner6.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30
GMUBig
F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74
Old DominionBetterGeorge Mason
ODU offense240th of 366 · -7.3
GMUBig
GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1
ODU defense222nd of 366 · -5.8
GMUSmall
GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5
Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players
GMUBig
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.9 · 2 players
GMUBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
Bench-3.2 · 5 players
GMUSmall
Bench-1.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestODU betterGMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Old Dominion
Guards
B. Benjamin20 min · TRZ. Wiggins18 minS. Hubbard16 minK. Thurmon11 min · TRC. Parker3 minR. Hellams2 min
Forwards
Z. Weluche-Ume31 min · TRJ. Turner21 minK. Howze10 min · TRB. Nacey8 minJ. NwekeNewL. MartiniNew
George Mason
Guards
B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min
Forwards
E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew
Centers
J. Nnaji8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ODUGMU
Scoring
75.7 #150Points per game72.9 #227
1.06 #217Points per possession1.13 #93
70.8 #81Pace (possessions)64.7 #351
Shooting
50.6 #203Effective FG%52.7 #113
36.0 #603-point %33.3 #214
36.2 #2453-point attempt rate35.2 #270
34.7 #189Free throw rate41.1 #44
Possessions
15.4 #95Turnover rate15.8 #121
26.0 #323Offensive rebound rate31.3 #149
12.9 #218Assists per game12.6 #243
Defense
78.7 #283Points allowed68.0 #31
1.12 #263Points allowed per possession1.05 #89
50.8 #145Opponent effective FG%49.5 #83
32.0 #62Opponent 3-point %32.6 #91
14.5 #321Turnovers forced15.5 #254
69.7 #176Defensive rebound rate71.7 #79
5.7 #275Steals per game5.0 #334
3.1 #208Blocks per game3.0 #228
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Old Dominion

11-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern84–88
  • Wvs UL Monroe87–80
  • W@ Georgia St81–73
  • L@ Marshall88–97
  • L@ Southern Miss81–86

A week or more of rest.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Liberty71–77
  • Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
  • Wvs Saint Louis86–57
  • L@ VCU65–70
  • Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.