1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. FAU @ SBU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Florida Atlantic Owls at St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Reilly Center · at St Bonaventure
#109FAUFAU
@
#142SBUSt Bonaventure
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FAUThis seasonSBU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAU 77–76 · win probability FAU 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

FAU 2, SBU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FAUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: FAU 52.2 and allows 49.5; SBU 52.4 and allows 53.3
SBUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FAU 17.6%, SBU 16.8%. Forced: FAU 15.5%, SBU 17.1%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: FAU plays 71.1 a game (71st fastest), SBU 68.0 (228th). Faster games mean more points
SBUSmall
Home court
SBU at home. This season: SBU 0-0 at home, FAU 0-0 away
FAUSmall
FAU offense vs SBU defense
Offense 85th of 366 against a defense 131st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
FAU hits 33.3% and allows 33.8%; SBU hits 37.4% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 38.2% and 31.3% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
FAU has played the 101st-hardest schedule, SBU the 109th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: FAU 33.3, SBU 30.0. Allowed: FAU 36.2, SBU 33.9
Even
SBU offense vs FAU defense
Offense 169th of 366 against a defense 174th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FAU 31.6%, SBU 34.5%. Defensive: FAU 71.7%, SBU 70.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FAU 17%, SBU 18%. Transfers in: FAU 5, SBU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAU -1.1—
Total—152.9—
Projected score—FAU 77 · SBU 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAU -0.8—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreFAU 36.1 · SBU 35.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

FAU has the better starters

Position by position: FAU 3, St Bonaventure 0, even 2
FAUBetterSt Bonaventure
G B. Speed TR15.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 82
FAUSmall
G A. Fulton TR10.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62
G J. Hamilton TR17.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
No call
G I. Ermakov2.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
G K. Carlyle14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.8 ast Score 73
FAUSmall
F R. Kalambay TR4.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40
G M. Charles TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 32
Even
F J. Grahovac4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33
F M. Porter-Brown TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
FAUSmall
F M. Blackwood TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.2 ast Score 22
FAUBetterSt Bonaventure
FAU offense85th of 366 · +0.4
Even
SBU defense131st of 366 · -2.4
FAU defense174th of 366 · -3.9
Even
SBU offense169th of 366 · -5.2
Backcourt+4.0 · 4 players
FAUBig
Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
FAUSmall
Frontcourt-2.4 · 3 players
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.6 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestFAU betterSBU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
FAU
Guards
B. Speed34 min · TRJ. Hamilton32 min · TRK. Carlyle31 minM. Charles30 min · TRL. Dayco-Green2 minL. Smith1 min
Forwards
M. Porter-Brown20 min · TRJ. HarrisNewM. PuodziukaitisNewD. MusisNew
Centers
K. Mullen6 min · TRT. IfaolaNew
St Bonaventure
Guards
A. Fulton29 min · TRI. Ermakov10 minA. Lonati8 minJ. DeRose1 minR. HeathNewZ. PhilipkoskiNew
Forwards
R. Kalambay21 min · TRJ. Grahovac18 minM. Blackwood12 min · TRJ. IkpotokinNewC. BlankenbergNew
Centers
B. BillNewC. DialloNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FAUSBU
Scoring
77.2 #111Points per game76.2 #138
1.09 #170Points per possession1.12 #104
71.1 #71Pace (possessions)68.0 #228
Shooting
52.2 #135Effective FG%52.4 #129
33.3 #2103-point %37.4 #22
38.2 #2083-point attempt rate31.3 #335
33.3 #231Free throw rate30.0 #310
Possessions
17.6 #246Turnover rate16.8 #189
31.6 #140Offensive rebound rate34.5 #60
13.0 #210Assists per game15.4 #73
Defense
75.3 #198Points allowed75.4 #201
1.06 #108Points allowed per possession1.11 #245
49.5 #81Opponent effective FG%53.3 #278
33.8 #169Opponent 3-point %36.0 #299
15.5 #252Turnovers forced17.1 #144
71.7 #78Defensive rebound rate70.2 #150
5.7 #272Steals per game7.5 #80
5.3 #11Blocks per game4.4 #41
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

FAU

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Texas70–74
  • Wvs Temple63–59
  • L@ Wichita St70–88
  • Wvs Charlotte77–76
  • Wvs Temple77–73

A week or more of rest.

St Bonaventure

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton63–68
  • Wvs George Mason63–57
  • Wvs La Salle99–80
  • Lvs Davidson63–68
  • L@ G Washington82–91

A week or more of rest.