St. Bonaventure Bonnies at Siena Saints: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 7:00 PM ETMVP Arena · at Siena

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: St Bonaventure and Siena
SBU	This season	SIE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SBU 73–70 · win probability SBU 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SIE has more of the edges

SBU 2, SIE 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

SBU has played the 109th-hardest schedule, SIE the 320th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SBUBig

SIE offense vs SBU defense

Offense 309th of 366 against a defense 131st, on the model’s ratings

SIESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SBU 30.0, SIE 33.4. Allowed: SBU 33.9, SIE 27.5

SIESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SBU 52.4 and allows 53.3; SIE 50.4 and allows 48.5

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: SBU plays 68.0 a game (228th fastest), SIE 64.4 (354th). Faster games mean more points

SIESmall

Home court

SIE at home. This season: SIE 0-0 at home, SBU 0-0 away

SBUSmall

Three-pointers

SBU hits 37.4% and allows 36.0%; SIE hits 30.6% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 31.3% and 32.2% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SBU 34.5%, SIE 31.8%. Defensive: SBU 70.2%, SIE 70.5%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SBU 16.8%, SIE 15.8%. Forced: SBU 17.1%, SIE 17.0%

Even

SBU offense vs SIE defense

Offense 169th of 366 against a defense 194th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SBU 18%, SIE 28%. Transfers in: SBU 3, SIE 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SBU -3.4	—
Total	—	142.6	—
Projected score	—	SBU 73 · SIE 69.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SBU -2.1	—
1H total	66.7	—
1H projected score	SBU 34.4 · SIE 32.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SBU LLWWW	13-20	39%	6-5	—
SIE WWWWW	21-14	60%	7-6	—

Venue/role: SBU away; SIE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SBU OUOUU	19-14	58%	16-17
SIE UUUUU	11-24	31%	23-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SBU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
SIE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

St Bonaventure

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs TEM	No recent meeting

Siena

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ UALB	W73–63LU
Dec 15	@ MONM	W70–59WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SBU 4–1 SIESBU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · SBU has won the last 3 meetings · SBU 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2025-26	SIE 66 @ SBU 75	SBU -9.5	SIE W
Dec 17, 2024-25	SBU 65 @ SIE 48	SIE +6.5	SBU W
Dec 9, 2023-24	SIE 56 @ SBU 89	SBU -20.5	SBU W
Dec 19, 2022-23	SBU 70 @ SIE 76	SIE +1.5	SIE W
Nov 9, 2021-22	SIE 47 @ SBU 75	SBU -19	SBU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Bonaventure

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W W W W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L W L L W L L L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

W L L L W L L W W L L L W L L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1458%

U O O O U O U U O O O O O O O U O O U O O U U U U O O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRAD	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCAN	W 89-70	-21.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsSIE	W 75-66	-9.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 15	vsYSU	W 84-80	-9.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 20	vsRMU	W 75-61	-11.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsUNC	L 70-85	+10.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsECU	W 67-58	-10.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 30	@FAU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 135
Dec 6	@BUF	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 10	vsCOLG	W 85-77	-9.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 162
Dec 13	vsOHIO	L 83-88	-6.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsLEM	W 92-81	-21.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 31	@VCU	L 82-89	+9.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 7	vsRICH	L 80-89	-6.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsFOR	L 77-81	-8.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 14	@JOES	L 64-68	-1.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 132
Jan 17	@LAS	L 74-78	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 20	vsLUC	W 84-70	-10.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 23	vsSLU	L 62-97	+8.5	L −26.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 28	@DUQ	W 87-79	+3.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 31	vsGMU	L 73-77	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 150
Feb 3	@DAY	L 70-72	+7.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 7	@FOR	W 70-67	-1.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsDUQ	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 151
Feb 18	vsJOES	L 65-71	-5.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Feb 21	@RICH	L 94-99	+1.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 26	vsURI	W 94-76	-2.5	W +15.5	144.5	O 170
Feb 28	@GMU	L 58-71	+3.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 129
Mar 4	@GW	L 82-91	+7.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	vsDAV	L 63-68	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 11	vsLAS	W 99-80	-7.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 179
Mar 12	vsGMU	W 63-57	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 120
Mar 13	vsDAY	L 63-68	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

+4.5

CAN

W 89-70

−2.5

SIE

W 75-66

−0.5

YSU

W 84-80

−5.5

RMU

W 75-61

+2.5

UNC

L 70-85

−4.5

ECU

W 67-58

−1.5

FAU

W 70-65

+6.5

BUF

W 77-69

+2.5

COLG

W 85-77

−1.5

OHIO

L 83-88

−11.5

LEM

W 92-81

−10.5

VCU

L 82-89

+2.5

RICH

L 80-89

−15.5

FOR

L 77-81

−12.5

JOES

L 64-68

−5.5

LAS

L 74-78

−9.5

LUC

W 84-70

+3.5

SLU

L 62-97

−26.5

DUQ

W 87-79

+11.5

GMU

L 73-77

−2.5

DAY

L 70-72

+5.5

FOR

W 70-67

+1.5

DUQ

L 73-78

−6.5

JOES

L 65-71

−11.5

RICH

L 94-99

−3.5

URI

W 94-76

+15.5

GMU

L 58-71

−9.5

L 82-91

−1.5

DAV

L 63-68

−9.5

LAS

W 99-80

+11.5

GMU

W 63-57

+8.5

DAY

L 63-68

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

−7.5

CAN

W 89-70

+22.5

SIE

W 75-66

+0.5

YSU

W 84-80

+17.5

RMU

W 75-61

−10.5

UNC

L 70-85

+2.5

ECU

W 67-58

−19.5

FAU

W 70-65

−11.5

BUF

W 77-69

+1.5

COLG

W 85-77

+19.5

OHIO

L 83-88

+20.5

LEM

W 92-81

+21.5

VCU

L 82-89

+13.5

RICH

L 80-89

+15.5

FOR

L 77-81

+15.5

JOES

L 64-68

−15.5

LAS

L 74-78

+10.5

LUC

W 84-70

+6.5

SLU

L 62-97

−0.5

DUQ

W 87-79

+15.5

GMU

L 73-77

+7.5

DAY

L 70-72

−2.5

FOR

W 70-67

−4.5

DUQ

L 73-78

−1.5

JOES

L 65-71

−11.5

RICH

L 94-99

+45.5

URI

W 94-76

+25.5

GMU

L 58-71

−17.5

L 82-91

+15.5

DAV

L 63-68

−10.5

LAS

W 99-80

+32.5

GMU

W 63-57

−23.5

DAY

L 63-68

−10.5

over 19under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Siena

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

21-14

60% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

W W L L W W W W W W W L L L W L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1460%

W W W L L L W W L W W L W L W L W L W W W L W L L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2431%

U U O U U O U U U O U O U U O U U O U O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U

7 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRY	W 82-66	-13.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@BRWN	W 62-46	-3.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 12	@SBU	L 66-75	+9.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 17	vsCOLG	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsUALB	W 73-63	-10.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 24	@HC	W 73-69	-9.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 28	vsLONG	W 70-63	-5.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AMER	W 59-55	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsME	W 64-60	-9.5	L −5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 5	vsNIA	W 83-54	-12.5	W +16.5	129.5	O 137
Dec 7	vsCAN	W 74-52	-17.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 126
Dec 17	@UVM	L 69-83	+2.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 22	@IU	L 60-81	+21.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 2	@IONA	L 72-75	-1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 147
Jan 4	@RID	W 74-65	-8.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 9	vsMRMK	L 59-63	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@MSM	W 67-50	-2.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 14	vsSHU	L 80-86	-8.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 166
Jan 17	@MAN	W 74-59	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 133
Jan 19	vsFAIR	W 85-77	-6.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 162
Jan 22	vsMRST	W 69-50	-1.5	W +17.5	133.5	U 119
Jan 30	@NIA	W 82-79	-9.5	L −6.5	128.5	O 161
Feb 1	@CAN	W 78-63	-8.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 5	vsIONA	W 79-72	-8.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 7	@SPU	L 65-70	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 13	vsQUIN	L 62-74	-3.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 136
Feb 15	@MRST	W 67-63	+2.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 130
Feb 20	@MRMK	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 151
Feb 22	vsSPU	W 72-63	-5.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 27	@FAIR	L 58-72	-1.5	L −15.5	142.5	U 130
Mar 1	vsRID	W 76-61	-14.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsMSM	W 63-58	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 121
Mar 8	vsFAIR	W 76-61	-1.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 10	vsMRMK	W 64-54	+2.5	W +12.5	128.5	U 118
Mar 19	vsDUKE	L 65-71	+28.5	W +22.5	137.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

+2.5

BRWN

W 62-46

+12.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−9.5

UALB

W 73-63

−0.5

W 73-69

−5.5

LONG

W 70-63

+1.5

AMER

W 59-55

+1.5

W 64-60

−5.5

NIA

W 83-54

+16.5

CAN

W 74-52

+4.5

UVM

L 69-83

−11.5

L 60-81

+0.5

IONA

L 72-75

−4.5

RID

W 74-65

+0.5

MRMK

L 59-63

−9.5

MSM

W 67-50

+14.5

SHU

L 80-86

−14.5

MAN

W 74-59

+8.5

FAIR

W 85-77

+1.5

MRST

W 69-50

+17.5

NIA

W 82-79

−6.5

CAN

W 78-63

+6.5

IONA

W 79-72

−1.5

SPU

L 65-70

−6.5

QUIN

L 62-74

−15.5

MRST

W 67-63

+6.5

MRMK

L 72-79

−4.5

SPU

W 72-63

+3.5

FAIR

L 58-72

−15.5

RID

W 76-61

+0.5

MSM

W 63-58

+2.5

FAIR

W 76-61

+13.5

MRMK

W 64-54

+12.5

DUKE

L 65-71

+22.5

covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

−0.5

BRWN

W 62-46

−34.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−5.5

UALB

W 73-63

−4.5

W 73-69

+4.5

LONG

W 70-63

−12.5

AMER

W 59-55

−23.5

W 64-60

−3.5

NIA

W 83-54

+7.5

CAN

W 74-52

−5.5

UVM

L 69-83

+17.5

L 60-81

−4.5

IONA

L 72-75

−2.5

RID

W 74-65

+3.5

MRMK

L 59-63

−10.5

MSM

W 67-50

−22.5

SHU

L 80-86

+26.5

MAN

W 74-59

−11.5

FAIR

W 85-77

+19.5

MRST

W 69-50

−14.5

NIA

W 82-79

+32.5

CAN

W 78-63

+5.5

IONA

W 79-72

+10.5

SPU

L 65-70

−0.5

QUIN

L 62-74

−8.5

MRST

W 67-63

−3.5

MRMK

L 72-79

+17.5

SPU

W 72-63

−0.5

FAIR

L 58-72

−12.5

RID

W 76-61

−0.5

MSM

W 63-58

−14.5

FAIR

W 76-61

−1.5

MRMK

W 64-54

−10.5

DUKE

L 65-71

−1.5

over 11under 24avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St Bonaventure has the better starters

Position by position: St Bonaventure 2, Siena 0, even 3

St BonaventureBetterSiena

G A. Fulton TR10.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

SBUSmall

G T. Yildizoglu TR10.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 30

G I. Ermakov2.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Coyle8.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17

F R. Kalambay TR4.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

SBUSmall

G I. Henderson3.8 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12

F J. Grahovac4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

No call

G O. Schlager2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

F M. Blackwood TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.2 ast Score 22

No call

G C. Torres0.5 pts · 0 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

St BonaventureBetterSiena

SBU offense169th of 366 · -5.2

Even

SIE defense194th of 366 · -4.7

SBU defense131st of 366 · -2.4

SBUBig

SIE offense309th of 366 · -9.6

Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players

SBUBig

Backcourt-7.7 · 5 players

Frontcourt-2.4 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.6 · 2 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestSBU betterSIE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

St Bonaventure

Guards

A. Fulton29 min · TRI. Ermakov10 minA. Lonati8 minJ. DeRose1 minR. HeathNewZ. PhilipkoskiNew

Forwards

R. Kalambay21 min · TRJ. Grahovac18 minM. Blackwood12 min · TRJ. IkpotokinNewC. BlankenbergNew

Centers

B. BillNewC. DialloNew

Siena

Guards

T. Yildizoglu32 min · TRB. Coyle31 minI. Henderson14 minO. Schlager10 minC. Torres3 minR. DucharmeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SBU76.2 #138

SIE70.4 #276

Points per possession

SBU1.12 #104

SIE1.09 #154

Pace (possessions)

SBU68.0 #228

SIE64.4 #354

Shooting

Effective FG%

SBU52.4 #129

SIE50.4 #222

3-point %

SBU37.4 #22

SIE30.6 #330

3-point attempt rate

SBU31.3 #335

SIE32.2 #327

Free throw rate

SBU30.0 #310

SIE33.4 #226

Possessions

Turnover rate

SBU16.8 #189

SIE15.8 #126

Offensive rebound rate

SBU34.5 #60

SIE31.8 #133

Assists per game

SBU15.4 #73

SIE13.5 #182

Defense

Points allowed

SBU75.4 #201

SIE65.8 #12

Points allowed per possession

SBU1.11 #245

SIE1.02 #44

Opponent effective FG%

SBU53.3 #278

SIE48.5 #48

Opponent 3-point %

SBU36.0 #299

SIE32.4 #82

Turnovers forced

SBU17.1 #144

SIE17.0 #154

Defensive rebound rate

SBU70.2 #150

SIE70.5 #133

Steals per game

SBU7.5 #80

SIE5.8 #262

Blocks per game

SBU4.4 #41

SIE3.1 #205

SBU		SIE
Scoring
76.2 #138	Points per game	70.4 #276
1.12 #104	Points per possession	1.09 #154
68.0 #228	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #354
Shooting
52.4 #129	Effective FG%	50.4 #222
37.4 #22	3-point %	30.6 #330
31.3 #335	3-point attempt rate	32.2 #327
30.0 #310	Free throw rate	33.4 #226
Possessions
16.8 #189	Turnover rate	15.8 #126
34.5 #60	Offensive rebound rate	31.8 #133
15.4 #73	Assists per game	13.5 #182
Defense
75.4 #201	Points allowed	65.8 #12
1.11 #245	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #44
53.3 #278	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #48
36.0 #299	Opponent 3-point %	32.4 #82
17.1 #144	Turnovers forced	17.0 #154
70.2 #150	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #133
7.5 #80	Steals per game	5.8 #262
4.4 #41	Blocks per game	3.1 #205

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St Bonaventure

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton63–68
Wvs George Mason63–57
Wvs La Salle99–80
Lvs Davidson63–68
L@ G Washington82–91

A week or more of rest.

Siena

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duke65–71
Wvs Merrimack64–54
Wvs Fairfield76–61
Wvs Mount St Marys63–58
Wvs Rider76–61

A week or more of rest.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies at Siena Saints

What could decide it: SIE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

St Bonaventure

Siena

St Bonaventure has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

St Bonaventure

Siena