Kent State Golden Flashes at Central Michigan Chippewas: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 7:00 PM ETMcGuirk Arena · at C Michigan · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kent State and C Michigan
KENT	This season	CMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KENT 78–74 · win probability KENT 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KENT has more of the edges

KENT 5, CMU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

KENTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: KENT 35.3%, CMU 29.2%. Defensive: KENT 70.7%, CMU 65.7%

KENTBig

KENT offense vs CMU defense

Offense 128th of 366 against a defense 287th, on the model’s ratings

KENTBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: KENT 43.5, CMU 31.4. Allowed: KENT 39.5, CMU 39.0

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: KENT plays 73.3 a game (17th fastest), CMU 68.3 (212th). Faster games mean more points

KENTSmall

CMU offense vs KENT defense

Offense 258th of 366 against a defense 196th, on the model’s ratings

CMUSmall

Home court

CMU at home. This season: CMU 0-0 at home, KENT 0-0 away

KENTSmall

Three-pointers

KENT hits 35.0% and allows 35.0%; CMU hits 33.9% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 44.9% and 34.0% of their shots

CMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: KENT 19%, CMU 43%. Transfers in: KENT 5, CMU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: KENT 51.4 and allows 52.1; CMU 51.8 and allows 54.0

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: KENT 17.9%, CMU 18.1%. Forced: KENT 16.1%, CMU 16.9%

Context

Schedule so far

KENT has played the 179th-hardest schedule, CMU the 158th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	KENT -3.7	—
Total	—	151.8	—
Projected score	—	KENT 77.7 · CMU 74

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KENT -2.3	—
1H total	71.0	—
1H projected score	KENT 36.6 · CMU 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT WLWLL	12-20	38%	5-8	—
CMU WWWLL	16-13	55%	8-3	—

Venue/role: KENT away; CMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT OOUUU	17-15	53%	22-10
CMU OOUUO	13-16	45%	8-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
CMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kent State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs MASS	W69–59WU

C Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ EMU	L54–66LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

KENT 5–3 CMUKENT leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · KENT 0-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 24, 2025-26	CMU 81 @ KENT 83	KENT -11.5	CMU W
Jan 10, 2025-26	KENT 85 @ CMU 87	CMU +10.5	CMU W
Feb 11, 2024-25	CMU 83 @ KENT 91	KENT -8.5	CMU W
Mar 2, 2023-24	CMU 73 @ KENT 79	KENT -10.5	CMU W
Jan 13, 2023-24	KENT 62 @ CMU 77	CMU +6.5	CMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kent State

32 games played

Straight up

22-10

69% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1069%

L W W W W W W W L W L W W L W W L W W L W L W W W W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

L W W L L W W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

O O O O U O U O O U O U O O O O O U U U U U O U U O U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTROY	L 97-103	-3.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 200
Nov 7	vsCOR	W 110-102	-6.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 212
Nov 10	vsUNCW	W 86-77	-3.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsCLE	W 102-95	-11.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 197
Nov 16	vsWRST	W 76-72	-4.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 18	vsEKU	W 93-78	-10.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 171
Nov 22	vsCLE	W 91-71	-15.5	W +4.5	172.5	U 162
Dec 3	vsAPSU	W 96-84	-8.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 180
Dec 14	@PORT	L 78-88	-7.5	L −17.5	160.5	O 166
Dec 20	@MASS	W 69-59	-1.5	W +8.5	163.5	U 128
Dec 29	@PUR	L 60-101	+24.5	L −16.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 3	vsNIU	W 77-73	-16.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsBGSU	W 96-93	-3.5	L −0.5	155.5	O 189
Jan 10	@CMU	L 85-87	-10.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 13	@BUF	W 87-81	-2.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 168
Jan 16	vsTOL	W 87-84	-5.5	L −2.5	168.5	O 171
Jan 20	vsM-OH	L 101-107	-1.5	L −7.5	167.5	O 208
Jan 24	@EMU	W 76-75	-4.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 27	vsOHIO	W 72-57	-5.5	W +9.5	162.5	U 129
Jan 30	@AKR	L 52-69	+10.5	L −6.5	166.5	U 121
Feb 3	@TOL	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 7	@USM	L 65-66	-4.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsEMU	W 95-91	-10.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 186
Feb 14	@BALL	W 75-68	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 17	@BGSU	W 78-71	+1.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 149
Feb 24	vsCMU	W 83-81	-11.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 164
Feb 27	vsAKR	L 70-92	+3.5	L −18.5	166.5	U 162
Mar 3	@NIU	W 102-76	-10.5	W +15.5	148.5	O 178
Mar 6	vsWMU	W 86-78	-13.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 164
Mar 12	vsOHIO	W 86-75	-3.5	W +7.5	161.5	U 161
Mar 13	vsAKR	L 68-75	+6.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 143
Mar 18	@ILST	L 58-79	+4.5	L −16.5	154.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TROY

L 97-103

−9.5

COR

W 110-102

+1.5

UNCW

W 86-77

+5.5

CLE

W 102-95

−4.5

WRST

W 76-72

−0.5

EKU

W 93-78

+4.5

CLE

W 91-71

+4.5

APSU

W 96-84

+3.5

PORT

L 78-88

−17.5

MASS

W 69-59

+8.5

PUR

L 60-101

−16.5

NIU

W 77-73

−12.5

BGSU

W 96-93

−0.5

CMU

L 85-87

−12.5

BUF

W 87-81

+3.5

TOL

W 87-84

−2.5

M-OH

L 101-107

−7.5

EMU

W 76-75

−3.5

OHIO

W 72-57

+9.5

AKR

L 52-69

−6.5

TOL

W 75-72

+1.5

USM

L 65-66

−5.5

EMU

W 95-91

−6.5

BALL

W 75-68

−0.5

BGSU

W 78-71

+8.5

CMU

W 83-81

−9.5

AKR

L 70-92

−18.5

NIU

W 102-76

+15.5

WMU

W 86-78

−5.5

OHIO

W 86-75

+7.5

AKR

L 68-75

−0.5

ILST

L 58-79

−16.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TROY

L 97-103

+57.5

COR

W 110-102

+47.5

UNCW

W 86-77

+6.5

CLE

W 102-95

+31.5

WRST

W 76-72

−9.5

EKU

W 93-78

+9.5

CLE

W 91-71

−10.5

APSU

W 96-84

+26.5

PORT

L 78-88

+5.5

MASS

W 69-59

−35.5

PUR

L 60-101

+5.5

NIU

W 77-73

−7.5

BGSU

W 96-93

+33.5

CMU

L 85-87

+15.5

BUF

W 87-81

+2.5

TOL

W 87-84

+2.5

M-OH

L 101-107

+40.5

EMU

W 76-75

−3.5

OHIO

W 72-57

−33.5

AKR

L 52-69

−45.5

TOL

W 75-72

−14.5

USM

L 65-66

−19.5

EMU

W 95-91

+40.5

BALL

W 75-68

−0.5

BGSU

W 78-71

−2.5

CMU

W 83-81

+7.5

AKR

L 70-92

−4.5

NIU

W 102-76

+29.5

WMU

W 86-78

+6.5

OHIO

W 86-75

−0.5

AKR

L 68-75

−20.5

ILST

L 58-79

−17.5

over 17under 15avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

C Michigan

29 games played

Straight up

8-21

28% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2128%

W L L W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W W L L W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1355%

W L W W L W L L L W L L W W W L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1645%

O U U U O O O O U U U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAPP	W 82-66	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 8	@BRAD	L 54-85	+9.5	L −21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 13	vsUSA	L 64-66	+5.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsCOPP	W 82-59	-10.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 20	vsNKU	L 66-90	-4.5	L −28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 22	@MARQ	L 71-85	+25.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 2	@LUC	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 7	@SLU	L 65-107	+24.5	L −17.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@STBK	L 55-78	+7.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 20	@NIU	L 73-74	+2.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 22	@WIS	L 61-88	+26.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 149
Dec 30	vsOHIO	L 64-80	+6.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 3	vsTOL	L 75-78	+7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@AKR	L 69-82	+23.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsKENT	W 87-85	+10.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 13	@M-OH	L 61-100	+15.5	L −23.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 20	vsBALL	L 67-68	+1.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 24	@WMU	L 65-77	+5.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 142
Jan 27	vsEMU	W 100-65	+2.5	W +37.5	139.5	O 165
Jan 31	vsBGSU	W 62-59	+8.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 3	@MASS	L 89-95	+11.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 184
Feb 7	@UL	L 80-85	+2.5	L −2.5	134.5	O 165
Feb 14	vsNIU	W 88-46	-4.5	W +37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@EMU	L 54-66	+4.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 120
Feb 21	vsWMU	W 83-70	-3.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 24	@KENT	L 81-83	+11.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 164
Feb 28	@BUF	W 75-70	+5.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsAKR	L 64-77	+11.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 141
Mar 6	@BALL	L 69-85	+2.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+14.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−21.5

USA

L 64-66

+3.5

COPP

W 82-59

+12.5

NKU

L 66-90

−28.5

MARQ

L 71-85

+11.5

LUC

L 72-83

−4.5

SLU

L 65-107

−17.5

STBK

L 55-78

−15.5

NIU

L 73-74

+1.5

WIS

L 61-88

−0.5

OHIO

L 64-80

−9.5

TOL

L 75-78

+4.5

AKR

L 69-82

+10.5

KENT

W 87-85

+12.5

M-OH

L 61-100

−23.5

BALL

L 67-68

+0.5

WMU

L 65-77

−6.5

EMU

W 100-65

+37.5

BGSU

W 62-59

+11.5

MASS

L 89-95

+5.5

L 80-85

−2.5

NIU

W 88-46

+37.5

EMU

L 54-66

−7.5

WMU

W 83-70

+9.5

KENT

L 81-83

+9.5

BUF

W 75-70

+10.5

AKR

L 64-77

−1.5

BALL

L 69-85

−13.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+5.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−8.5

USA

L 64-66

−12.5

COPP

W 82-59

−1.5

NKU

L 66-90

+9.5

MARQ

L 71-85

+3.5

LUC

L 72-83

+14.5

SLU

L 65-107

+11.5

STBK

L 55-78

−12.5

NIU

L 73-74

−2.5

WIS

L 61-88

−3.5

OHIO

L 64-80

−7.5

TOL

L 75-78

−5.5

AKR

L 69-82

−13.5

KENT

W 87-85

+15.5

M-OH

L 61-100

+2.5

BALL

L 67-68

−7.5

WMU

L 65-77

−6.5

EMU

W 100-65

+25.5

BGSU

W 62-59

−28.5

MASS

L 89-95

+31.5

L 80-85

+30.5

NIU

W 88-46

−12.5

EMU

L 54-66

−20.5

WMU

W 83-70

+2.5

KENT

L 81-83

+7.5

BUF

W 75-70

−6.5

AKR

L 64-77

−17.5

BALL

L 69-85

+19.5

over 13under 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kent State has the better starters

Position by position: Kent State 4, C Michigan 0, even 1

Kent StateBetterC Michigan

G C. Henry TR11.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.1 ast Score 66

KENTSmall

G J. Petty TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

G C. Willis TR6.3 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G P. Phat Brooks11.1 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 46

G Q. Woidke9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 69

KENTBig

G J. Whitaker5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 11

F C. Williams TR9.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 52

KENTBig

G J. Kampen4.1 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

F G. Nwabude TR5.1 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 57

KENTSmall

F K. Garner7.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35

Kent StateBetterC Michigan

KENT offense128th of 366 · -3.5

KENTBig

CMU defense287th of 366 · -7.2

KENT defense196th of 366 · -4.8

KENTSmall

CMU offense258th of 366 · -8.0

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

KENTBig

Backcourt-6.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.1 · 1 player

Bench-2.3 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestKENT betterCMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kent State

Guards

C. Henry29 min · TRC. Willis27 min · TRQ. Woidke20 minB. Moss5 minD. Lakatos1 minJ. SumlinNew

Forwards

C. Williams24 min · TRG. Nwabude19 min · TRL. Diouf13 min · TRD. Briscoe8 minL. Vanderwarker4 minJ. TownsendNew

C Michigan

Guards

J. Petty31 min · TRP. Phat Brooks29 minJ. Whitaker18 minJ. Kampen14 minJ. HackettNewU. AmeneNew

Forwards

K. Garner25 minT. AmbroseNewN. UsenNewJ. BascomNew

Centers

C. LuczynskiNewK. AburashedNewB. MendozaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

KENT82.3 #31

CMU71.7 #256

Points per possession

KENT1.12 #102

CMU1.05 #248

Pace (possessions)

KENT73.3 #17

CMU68.3 #212

Shooting

Effective FG%

KENT51.4 #175

CMU51.8 #158

3-point %

KENT35.0 #118

CMU33.9 #181

3-point attempt rate

KENT44.9 #69

CMU34.0 #293

Free throw rate

KENT43.5 #15

CMU31.4 #269

Possessions

Turnover rate

KENT17.9 #268

CMU18.1 #279

Offensive rebound rate

KENT35.3 #39

CMU29.2 #230

Assists per game

KENT15.1 #81

CMU14.4 #120

Defense

Points allowed

KENT80.6 #328

CMU77.7 #258

Points allowed per possession

KENT1.10 #221

CMU1.14 #301

Opponent effective FG%

KENT52.1 #219

CMU54.0 #299

Opponent 3-point %

KENT35.0 #246

CMU35.5 #282

Turnovers forced

KENT16.1 #219

CMU16.9 #157

Defensive rebound rate

KENT70.7 #124

CMU65.7 #323

Steals per game

KENT6.5 #174

CMU6.1 #219

Blocks per game

KENT3.3 #184

CMU4.1 #64

KENT		CMU
Scoring
82.3 #31	Points per game	71.7 #256
1.12 #102	Points per possession	1.05 #248
73.3 #17	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #212
Shooting
51.4 #175	Effective FG%	51.8 #158
35.0 #118	3-point %	33.9 #181
44.9 #69	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #293
43.5 #15	Free throw rate	31.4 #269
Possessions
17.9 #268	Turnover rate	18.1 #279
35.3 #39	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #230
15.1 #81	Assists per game	14.4 #120
Defense
80.6 #328	Points allowed	77.7 #258
1.10 #221	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #301
52.1 #219	Opponent effective FG%	54.0 #299
35.0 #246	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #282
16.1 #219	Turnovers forced	16.9 #157
70.7 #124	Defensive rebound rate	65.7 #323
6.5 #174	Steals per game	6.1 #219
3.3 #184	Blocks per game	4.1 #64

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kent State

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Illinois St58–79
Lvs Akron68–75
Wvs Ohio86–75
Wvs W Michigan86–78
W@ N Illinois102–76

A week or more of rest.

C Michigan

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Ball State69–85
Lvs Akron64–77
W@ Buffalo75–70
L@ Kent State81–83
Wvs W Michigan83–70

A week or more of rest.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Central Michigan Chippewas

What could decide it: KENT has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kent State

C Michigan

Kent State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kent State

C Michigan