Furman Paladins at UNC Greensboro Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETFirst Horizon Coliseum · at UNC Greensboro · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Furman and UNC Greensboro
FUR	This season	UNCG
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FUR 77–72 · win probability FUR 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FUR has more of the edges

FUR 6, UNCG 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FURBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: FUR 54.8 and allows 50.2; UNCG 52.0 and allows 56.2

FURBig

FUR offense vs UNCG defense

Offense 166th of 366 against a defense 299th, on the model’s ratings

FURBig

UNCG offense vs FUR defense

Offense 260th of 366 against a defense 146th, on the model’s ratings

UNCGSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FUR 17.8%, UNCG 15.0%. Forced: FUR 13.7%, UNCG 13.6%

UNCGSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: FUR 32.7, UNCG 42.0. Allowed: FUR 28.9, UNCG 30.6

FURSmall

Three-pointers

FUR hits 33.4% and allows 32.3%; UNCG hits 35.6% and allows 38.0%. Threes are 46.5% and 40.2% of their shots

FURSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FUR 46%, UNCG 5%. Transfers in: FUR 4, UNCG 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: FUR plays 67.2 a game (273rd fastest), UNCG 69.3 (157th). Faster games mean more points

FURSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FUR 30.5%, UNCG 28.1%. Defensive: FUR 71.8%, UNCG 71.0%

UNCGSmall

Home court

UNCG at home. This season: UNCG 0-0 at home, FUR 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

FUR has played the 224th-hardest schedule, UNCG the 256th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FUR -5.2	—
Total	—	148.4	—
Projected score	—	FUR 76.8 · UNCG 71.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FUR -3.2	—
1H total	69.4	—
1H projected score	FUR 36.3 · UNCG 33.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FUR LWWWW	16-16	50%	7-5	—
UNCG WLWWL	13-19	41%	5-7	—

Venue/role: FUR away; UNCG home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FUR OOOUO	16-16	50%	19-13
UNCG OOUUO	22-10	69%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FUR	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
UNCG	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Furman

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs NCAT	No recent meeting

UNC Greensboro

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	@ NCSU	L64–110LO
Dec 15	@ HALL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

FUR 4–7 UNCGUNCG leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · FUR 3-7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2025-26	UNCG 75 vs FUR 81	FUR -5.5	FUR W
Feb 8, 2025-26	UNCG 67 @ FUR 64	FUR -10.5	UNCG W
Jan 23, 2025-26	FUR 89 @ UNCG 66	UNCG +4.5	FUR W
Feb 15, 2024-25	UNCG 58 @ FUR 50	FUR -3.5	UNCG W
Jan 4, 2024-25	FUR 67 @ UNCG 84	UNCG -1.5	UNCG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Furman

32 games played

Straight up

19-13

59% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1359%

L L L W W L W W W W W L W W W L L W W W L L L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L L W W L W W L L L L W W W L L W L L W L L W L W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

O U U O U U O O U O U U U U O U O O O U O U U O O U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHPU	L 71-97	+3.5	L −22.5	153.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsTROY	L 61-64	-2.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 125
Nov 14	@UNI	L 54-70	+9.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 23	vsQUC	W 90-79	-8.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsRICH	W 73-72	+3.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsILST	L 65-72	+3.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 137
Dec 3	@ELON	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 185
Dec 6	vsHARV	W 79-69	-4.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 18	@MAN	W 75-68	-10.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsCHSO	W 84-76	-10.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 31	vsMER	W 74-72	-2.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 3	vsWCU	L 77-80	-8.5	L −11.5	157.5	U 157
Jan 7	@UTC	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 10	vsVMI	W 69-48	-12.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 117
Jan 14	@SAM	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 17	vsWOF	L 70-74	-4.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 144
Jan 21	@CIT	L 75-77	-11.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 23	@UNCG	W 89-66	-4.5	W +18.5	150.5	O 155
Jan 29	vsSAM	W 78-73	-5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 1	vsUTC	W 75-70	-7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 4	@ETSU	L 71-75	+5.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 146
Feb 8	vsUNCG	L 64-67	-10.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 131
Feb 11	@MER	L 64-69	+3.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 133
Feb 14	@VMI	W 90-72	-11.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 18	vsETSU	L 69-78	-1.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@WOF	W 76-67	-1.5	W +7.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 25	vsCIT	W 72-51	-15.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 123
Feb 28	@WCU	L 67-86	-1.5	L −20.5	147.5	O 153
Mar 7	vsSAM	W 86-81	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 167
Mar 8	vsUNCG	W 81-75	-5.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 9	vsETSU	W 76-61	+1.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 137
Mar 20	vsCONN	L 71-82	+20.5	W +9.5	133.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HPU

L 71-97

−22.5

TROY

L 61-64

−5.5

UNI

L 54-70

−6.5

QUC

W 90-79

+2.5

RICH

W 73-72

+4.5

ILST

L 65-72

−3.5

ELON

W 97-88

+7.5

HARV

W 79-69

+5.5

MAN

W 75-68

−3.5

CHSO

W 84-76

−2.5

MER

W 74-72

−0.5

WCU

L 77-80

−11.5

UTC

W 78-67

+8.5

VMI

W 69-48

+8.5

SAM

W 77-73

+2.5

WOF

L 70-74

−8.5

CIT

L 75-77

−13.5

UNCG

W 89-66

+18.5

SAM

W 78-73

−0.5

UTC

W 75-70

−2.5

ETSU

L 71-75

+1.5

UNCG

L 64-67

−13.5

MER

L 64-69

−1.5

VMI

W 90-72

+6.5

ETSU

L 69-78

−10.5

WOF

W 76-67

+7.5

CIT

W 72-51

+5.5

WCU

L 67-86

−20.5

SAM

W 86-81

+6.5

UNCG

W 81-75

+0.5

ETSU

W 76-61

+16.5

CONN

L 71-82

+9.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HPU

L 71-97

+14.5

TROY

L 61-64

−27.5

UNI

L 54-70

−17.5

QUC

W 90-79

+15.5

RICH

W 73-72

−2.5

ILST

L 65-72

−8.5

ELON

W 97-88

+31.5

HARV

W 79-69

+6.5

MAN

W 75-68

−11.5

CHSO

W 84-76

+4.5

MER

W 74-72

−8.5

WCU

L 77-80

−0.5

UTC

W 78-67

−1.5

VMI

W 69-48

−32.5

SAM

W 77-73

+0.5

WOF

L 70-74

−5.5

CIT

L 75-77

+9.5

UNCG

W 89-66

+4.5

SAM

W 78-73

+1.5

UTC

W 75-70

−1.5

ETSU

L 71-75

+4.5

UNCG

L 64-67

−18.5

MER

L 64-69

−18.5

VMI

W 90-72

+13.5

ETSU

L 69-78

+6.5

WOF

W 76-67

−10.5

CIT

W 72-51

−20.5

WCU

L 67-86

+5.5

SAM

W 86-81

+19.5

UNCG

W 81-75

+8.5

ETSU

W 76-61

−2.5

CONN

L 71-82

+19.5

over 16under 16avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Greensboro

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-10

69% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W L L L W W W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L L L W L L L W W W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1069%

O O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U O O O O U O U O O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@KSU	L 64-93	+18.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsELON	L 90-92	-4.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 182
Nov 12	@NCSU	L 64-110	+30.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsAPSU	L 63-69	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 20	@QUC	L 94-101	+7.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	vsYSU	W 68-62	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsDEL	L 60-73	-1.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsM-OH	L 71-82	+10.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 2	vsUNCA	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 159
Dec 6	@ECU	W 82-78	+7.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 16	vsNCAT	L 65-71	-6.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 1	vsUTC	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSAM	W 89-82	+2.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 7	@WOF	L 85-97	+7.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 182
Jan 10	@ETSU	L 60-86	+11.5	L −14.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 15	vsCIT	W 69-66	-9.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 135
Jan 17	vsMER	L 92-102	+5.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 194
Jan 21	@VMI	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 23	vsFUR	L 66-89	+4.5	L −18.5	150.5	O 155
Jan 29	@MER	L 77-95	+10.5	L −7.5	158.5	O 172
Jan 31	@CIT	L 66-71	-2.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 4	vsWCU	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 159
Feb 8	@FUR	W 67-64	+10.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsVMI	W 92-71	-8.5	W +12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsWOF	W 99-89	+2.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 188
Feb 18	@WCU	L 77-91	+5.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 21	vsETSU	L 75-87	+6.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 26	@UTC	W 85-80	+4.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 165
Feb 28	@SAM	L 78-87	+8.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsVMI	W 84-70	-7.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 154
Mar 7	vsWOF	W 75-72	+4.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 147
Mar 8	vsFUR	L 75-81	+5.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

−10.5

ELON

L 90-92

−6.5

NCSU

L 64-110

−15.5

APSU

L 63-69

−7.5

QUC

L 94-101

+0.5

YSU

W 68-62

+11.5

DEL

L 60-73

−14.5

M-OH

L 71-82

−0.5

UNCA

L 77-82

−0.5

ECU

W 82-78

+11.5

NCAT

L 65-71

−12.5

UTC

W 77-72

+7.5

SAM

W 89-82

+9.5

WOF

L 85-97

−4.5

ETSU

L 60-86

−14.5

CIT

W 69-66

−6.5

MER

L 92-102

−4.5

VMI

W 85-78

+4.5

FUR

L 66-89

−18.5

MER

L 77-95

−7.5

CIT

L 66-71

−7.5

WCU

W 81-78

+4.5

FUR

W 67-64

+13.5

VMI

W 92-71

+12.5

WOF

W 99-89

+12.5

WCU

L 77-91

−8.5

ETSU

L 75-87

−5.5

UTC

W 85-80

+9.5

SAM

L 78-87

−0.5

VMI

W 84-70

+6.5

WOF

W 75-72

+7.5

FUR

L 75-81

−0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

+8.5

ELON

L 90-92

+39.5

NCSU

L 64-110

+20.5

APSU

L 63-69

−13.5

QUC

L 94-101

+44.5

YSU

W 68-62

−22.5

DEL

L 60-73

−9.5

M-OH

L 71-82

+2.5

UNCA

L 77-82

+15.5

ECU

W 82-78

+20.5

NCAT

L 65-71

−11.5

UTC

W 77-72

+1.5

SAM

W 89-82

+19.5

WOF

L 85-97

+28.5

ETSU

L 60-86

−2.5

CIT

W 69-66

−13.5

MER

L 92-102

+38.5

VMI

W 85-78

+11.5

FUR

L 66-89

+4.5

MER

L 77-95

+13.5

CIT

L 66-71

−10.5

WCU

W 81-78

+3.5

FUR

W 67-64

−18.5

VMI

W 92-71

+12.5

WOF

W 99-89

+33.5

WCU

L 77-91

+12.5

ETSU

L 75-87

+13.5

UTC

W 85-80

+7.5

SAM

L 78-87

+8.5

VMI

W 84-70

−0.5

WOF

W 75-72

−8.5

FUR

L 75-81

+8.5

over 22under 10avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Furman has the better starters

Position by position: Furman 2, UNC Greensboro 0, even 3

FurmanBetterUNC Greensboro

G J. Bell TR12.3 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 76

FURSmall

G B. Stacker TR11.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 47

G C. Bowser5.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31

FURSmall

G C. Grant TR2.2 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 9

G L. Toews TR6.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45

Even

F Z. Fitch TR6.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31

F M. Kell TR13.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59

No call

F V. Collins TR1 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

F C. Johnston9.6 pts · 8.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 66

No call

F A. Beljan TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

FurmanBetterUNC Greensboro

FUR offense166th of 366 · -5.1

FURBig

UNCG defense299th of 366 · -7.7

FUR defense146th of 366 · -3.2

FURSmall

UNCG offense260th of 366 · -8.0

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-2.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

FURSmall

Frontcourt-1.9 · 3 players

Bench-2.5 · 5 players

UNCGSmall

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestFUR betterUNCG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Furman

Guards

J. Bell26 min · TRC. Bowser23 minL. Toews21 min · TRA. Franklin11 minC. O'Neal11 minG. LewisNew

Forwards

M. Kell30 min · TRC. Johnston29 minM. Smith12 minJ. Butler9 min · TRO. Ritger7 minD. MolnarNew

UNC Greensboro

Guards

B. Stacker29 min · TRC. Grant11 min · TRC. Bailey6 minR. Greer6 min · TRB. MishakNewJ. ManiNew

Forwards

Z. Fitch23 min · TRV. Collins7 min · TRA. Beljan7 min · TRC. Bynum4 minC. LaFrentzNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FUR74.9 #164

UNCG76.6 #128

Points per possession

FUR1.11 #114

UNCG1.11 #125

Pace (possessions)

FUR67.2 #273

UNCG69.3 #157

Shooting

Effective FG%

FUR54.8 #43

UNCG52.0 #146

3-point %

FUR33.4 #204

UNCG35.6 #80

3-point attempt rate

FUR46.5 #40

UNCG40.2 #165

Free throw rate

FUR32.7 #246

UNCG42.0 #31

Possessions

Turnover rate

FUR17.8 #260

UNCG15.0 #63

Offensive rebound rate

FUR30.5 #180

UNCG28.1 #259

Assists per game

FUR14.9 #91

UNCG12.1 #283

Defense

Points allowed

FUR72.5 #116

UNCG81.9 #341

Points allowed per possession

FUR1.08 #163

UNCG1.18 #347

Opponent effective FG%

FUR50.2 #112

UNCG56.2 #347

Opponent 3-point %

FUR32.3 #75

UNCG38.0 #357

Turnovers forced

FUR13.7 #342

UNCG13.6 #343

Defensive rebound rate

FUR71.8 #72

UNCG71.0 #104

Steals per game

FUR4.4 #357

UNCG5.5 #301

Blocks per game

FUR3.3 #183

UNCG1.9 #350

FUR		UNCG
Scoring
74.9 #164	Points per game	76.6 #128
1.11 #114	Points per possession	1.11 #125
67.2 #273	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #157
Shooting
54.8 #43	Effective FG%	52.0 #146
33.4 #204	3-point %	35.6 #80
46.5 #40	3-point attempt rate	40.2 #165
32.7 #246	Free throw rate	42.0 #31
Possessions
17.8 #260	Turnover rate	15.0 #63
30.5 #180	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #259
14.9 #91	Assists per game	12.1 #283
Defense
72.5 #116	Points allowed	81.9 #341
1.08 #163	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #347
50.2 #112	Opponent effective FG%	56.2 #347
32.3 #75	Opponent 3-point %	38.0 #357
13.7 #342	Turnovers forced	13.6 #343
71.8 #72	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #104
4.4 #357	Steals per game	5.5 #301
3.3 #183	Blocks per game	1.9 #350

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Furman

19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn71–82
Wvs ETSU76–61
Wvs UNC Greensboro81–75
Wvs Samford86–81
L@ W Carolina67–86

A week or more of rest.

UNC Greensboro

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Furman75–81
Wvs Wofford75–72
Wvs VMI84–70
L@ Samford78–87
W@ Chattanooga85–80

A week or more of rest.

Furman Paladins at UNC Greensboro Spartans

What could decide it: FUR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Furman

UNC Greensboro

Furman has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Furman

UNC Greensboro