Georgia State Panthers at UL Monroe Warhawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETb1Bank Fant Coliseum · at UL Monroe · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Georgia St and UL Monroe
GAST	This season	ULM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GAST 79–71 · win probability GAST 76%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GAST has more of the edges

GAST 6, ULM 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GASTBig

GAST offense vs ULM defense

Offense 214th of 366 against a defense 361st, on the model’s ratings

GASTBig

ULM offense vs GAST defense

Offense 332nd of 366 against a defense 205th, on the model’s ratings

ULMSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: GAST 37.2, ULM 38.8. Allowed: GAST 34.9, ULM 27.7

GASTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GAST 44.2 and allows 50.6; ULM 47.8 and allows 57.1

GASTSmall

Three-pointers

GAST hits 30.6% and allows 33.1%; ULM hits 32.2% and allows 36.9%. Threes are 42.4% and 41.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: GAST plays 69.1 a game (176th fastest), ULM 71.3 (58th). Faster games mean more points

ULMSmall

Home court

ULM at home. This season: ULM 0-0 at home, GAST 0-0 away

GASTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GAST 15.9%, ULM 16.9%. Forced: GAST 16.4%, ULM 15.7%

GASTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GAST 27.7%, ULM 25.1%. Defensive: GAST 66.4%, ULM 64.6%

Context

Schedule so far

GAST has played the 232nd-hardest schedule, ULM the 216th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GAST 4%, ULM 1%. Transfers in: GAST 10, ULM 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GAST -8.0	—
Total	—	150.3	—
Projected score	—	GAST 79.2 · ULM 71.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GAST -4.9	—
1H total	70.3	—
1H projected score	GAST 37.6 · ULM 32.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WLLLL	13-17	43%	8-7	—
ULM WWLWW	17-12	59%	6-5	—

Venue/role: GAST away; ULM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UOOOO	14-16	47%	8-22
ULM UOUUO	20-9	69%	2-28

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
ULM	1-9 10%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs KENN	L69–92LO
Dec 12	vs TXSO	No recent meeting

UL Monroe

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs MISS	L65–86WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GAST 4–1 ULMGAST leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · GAST has won the last 2 meetings · GAST 3-1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 17, 2025-26	GAST 77 @ ULM 57	ULM +6.5	GAST W
Feb 5, 2024-25	ULM 64 @ GAST 97	GAST -6.5	GAST W
Jan 5, 2022-23	GAST 58 @ ULM 66	ULM +4.5	ULM W
Feb 23, 2021-22	ULM 70 @ GAST 82	GAST -12	P
Jan 29, 2021-22	GAST 73 @ ULM 62	ULM +4.5	GAST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L W L L L L L W L W W W L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U O U U U O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	@MER	L 67-78	+10.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@KENN	L 69-92	+14.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsJXST	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 18	@GASO	L 67-90	+9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	@APP	W 70-63	+7.5	W +14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@MRSH	L 80-84	+13.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 164
Jan 3	@CCU	W 89-71	+6.5	W +24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsAPP	L 50-52	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	vsMRSH	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 154
Jan 17	@ULM	W 77-57	-6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	vsUSM	W 69-62	-1.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsARST	W 82-81	+4.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 29	@UL	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	@USA	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 4	vsTROY	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsNIU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 12	@JMU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ODU	L 55-78	+3.5	L −19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 19	vsGASO	W 66-64	+1.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	vsJMU	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 24	vsCCU	L 71-76	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	vsODU	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsUL	L 75-84	-1.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

MER

L 67-78

−0.5

KENN

L 69-92

−8.5

JXST

W 77-73

+7.5

GASO

L 67-90

−13.5

APP

W 70-63

+14.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+9.5

CCU

W 89-71

+24.5

APP

L 50-52

−0.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+12.5

ULM

W 77-57

+13.5

USM

W 69-62

+5.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

−11.5

USA

L 67-69

+3.5

TROY

L 63-74

−4.5

NIU

L 74-75

−5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+3.5

ODU

L 55-78

−19.5

GASO

W 66-64

+3.5

JMU

L 65-80

−12.5

CCU

L 71-76

−3.5

ODU

L 73-81

−6.5

L 75-84

−10.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

MER

L 67-78

−10.5

KENN

L 69-92

+2.5

JXST

W 77-73

+10.5

GASO

L 67-90

−2.5

APP

W 70-63

−4.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+12.5

CCU

W 89-71

+11.5

APP

L 50-52

−38.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+0.5

ULM

W 77-57

−21.5

USM

W 69-62

−13.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

+24.5

USA

L 67-69

−4.5

TROY

L 63-74

−7.5

NIU

L 74-75

+5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+15.5

ODU

L 55-78

−14.5

GASO

W 66-64

−24.5

JMU

L 65-80

+2.5

CCU

L 71-76

+5.5

ODU

L 73-81

+4.5

L 75-84

+24.5

over 14under 16avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

UL Monroe

30 games played

Straight up

2-28

7% wins

Against the spread

17-12

59% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-9

69% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-287%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L

8 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1259%

L W L L W L W L W W L W L W W W L L W–W W L L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-969%

O O U O O O U O O O O O O O O U U O U–O O U O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NIU	L 82-102	+7.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@MISS	L 65-86	+37.5	W +16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 13	@HCU	L 61-72	+8.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 17	vsLAM	L 66-79	+11.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 22	vsMORE	L 80-83	+6.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 23	@ETSU	L 55-97	+19.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 3	vsMVSU	W 66-52	-9.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 7	@SFA	L 76-96	+19.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 13	@MIA	L 79-104	+35.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 183
Dec 17	vsUSA	L 92-96	+9.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 188
Dec 20	vsUL	L 62-76	+1.5	L −12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	@KSU	L 85-94	+32.5	W +23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 1	vsUSM	L 73-87	+9.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	vsTXST	L 79-84	+10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 8	@UL	L 79-85	+7.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 164
Jan 10	@USM	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 17	vsGAST	L 57-77	+6.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	@MRSH	L 60-115	+18.5	L −36.5	160.5	O 175
Jan 23	@APP	L 43-59	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 102
Jan 30	vsGASO	L 76-79	—	—	—	—
Feb 1	vsCCU	L 79-83	+10.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 4	@ODU	W 85-79	+14.5	W +20.5	154.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsBALL	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 141
Feb 11	@ARST	L 70-103	+20.5	L −12.5	162.5	O 173
Feb 14	@TXST	L 84-95	+14.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 179
Feb 18	vsTROY	L 76-77	+17.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 21	vsARST	L 94-102	+15.5	W +7.5	165.5	O 196
Feb 25	@USA	L 54-89	+14.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 27	@TROY	L 65-80	+18.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsODU	L 80-87	+9.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

−12.5

MISS

L 65-86

+16.5

HCU

L 61-72

−2.5

LAM

L 66-79

−1.5

L 80-83

+3.5

ETSU

L 55-97

−22.5

MVSU

W 66-52

+4.5

SFA

L 76-96

−0.5

MIA

L 79-104

+10.5

USA

L 92-96

+5.5

L 62-76

−12.5

KSU

L 85-94

+23.5

USM

L 73-87

−4.5

TXST

L 79-84

+5.5

L 79-85

+1.5

USM

L 60-70

+4.5

GAST

L 57-77

−13.5

MRSH

L 60-115

−36.5

APP

L 43-59

+0.5

CCU

L 79-83

+6.5

ODU

W 85-79

+20.5

BALL

L 68-73

−0.5

ARST

L 70-103

−12.5

TXST

L 84-95

+3.5

TROY

L 76-77

+16.5

ARST

L 94-102

+7.5

USA

L 54-89

−20.5

TROY

L 65-80

+3.5

ODU

L 80-87

+2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 12avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

+36.5

MISS

L 65-86

+1.5

HCU

L 61-72

−10.5

LAM

L 66-79

+4.5

L 80-83

+17.5

ETSU

L 55-97

+5.5

MVSU

W 66-52

−31.5

SFA

L 76-96

+29.5

MIA

L 79-104

+29.5

USA

L 92-96

+39.5

L 62-76

+1.5

KSU

L 85-94

+9.5

USM

L 73-87

+7.5

TXST

L 79-84

+12.5

L 79-85

+24.5

USM

L 60-70

−25.5

GAST

L 57-77

−21.5

MRSH

L 60-115

+14.5

APP

L 43-59

−42.5

CCU

L 79-83

+15.5

ODU

W 85-79

+9.5

BALL

L 68-73

−2.5

ARST

L 70-103

+10.5

TXST

L 84-95

+29.5

TROY

L 76-77

−0.5

ARST

L 94-102

+30.5

USA

L 54-89

−10.5

TROY

L 65-80

−8.5

ODU

L 80-87

+9.5

over 20under 9avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia St has the better starters

Position by position: Georgia St 2, UL Monroe 1, even 2

Georgia StBetterUL Monroe

G J. Jackson TR12.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 51

GASTSmall

G D. Anderson TR5.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23

G J. Meyer TR12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 51

GASTBig

G K. London TR5.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1 ast Score 5

G E. Parnell TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

ULMSmall

G Q. McPherson TR4.4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 60

F T. Dixon TR9.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 75

No call

G R. Cowherd TR0.9 pts · 0 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

F J. Sirtautas TR5.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

No call

C J. Lafleur TR1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

Georgia StBetterUL Monroe

GAST offense214th of 366 · -6.5

GASTBig

ULM defense361st of 366 · -11.5

GAST defense205th of 366 · -5.0

GASTBig

ULM offense332nd of 366 · -10.8

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

GASTSmall

Backcourt-4.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

Bench-3.7 · 5 players

ULMBig

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestGAST betterULM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Georgia St

Guards

J. Jackson33 min · TRJ. Meyer29 min · TRE. Parnell26 min · TRZ. Wilburn17 min · TRA. Smith15 min · TRD. Thomas14 min · TR

Forwards

T. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Sirtautas20 min · TRJ. Fredson-Cole19 min · TRO. WilsonNewK. JacksonNew

Centers

M. Nicholson4 min · TR

UL Monroe

Guards

D. Anderson16 min · TRK. London14 min · TRQ. McPherson11 min · TRR. Cowherd5 min · TRC. Campbell1 minP. TillmanNew

Forwards

L. Carr2 min · TRG. ChamberlainNewJ. RegisteNewG. SchoentgenNew

Centers

J. Lafleur6 min · TRM. AdonryNewZ. NdanckyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GAST68.4 #307

ULM71.7 #255

Points per possession

GAST0.99 #335

ULM1.00 #321

Pace (possessions)

GAST69.1 #176

ULM71.3 #58

Shooting

Effective FG%

GAST44.2 #362

ULM47.8 #316

3-point %

GAST30.6 #329

ULM32.2 #270

3-point attempt rate

GAST42.4 #129

ULM41.9 #135

Free throw rate

GAST37.2 #124

ULM38.8 #85

Possessions

Turnover rate

GAST15.9 #132

ULM16.9 #196

Offensive rebound rate

GAST27.7 #278

ULM25.1 #338

Assists per game

GAST11.1 #334

ULM11.9 #288

Defense

Points allowed

GAST75.4 #203

ULM85.4 #361

Points allowed per possession

GAST1.09 #202

ULM1.20 #358

Opponent effective FG%

GAST50.6 #135

ULM57.1 #358

Opponent 3-point %

GAST33.1 #132

ULM36.9 #343

Turnovers forced

GAST16.4 #197

ULM15.7 #235

Defensive rebound rate

GAST66.4 #312

ULM64.6 #345

Steals per game

GAST6.7 #149

ULM6.0 #237

Blocks per game

GAST3.0 #212

ULM3.2 #189

GAST		ULM
Scoring
68.4 #307	Points per game	71.7 #255
0.99 #335	Points per possession	1.00 #321
69.1 #176	Pace (possessions)	71.3 #58
Shooting
44.2 #362	Effective FG%	47.8 #316
30.6 #329	3-point %	32.2 #270
42.4 #129	3-point attempt rate	41.9 #135
37.2 #124	Free throw rate	38.8 #85
Possessions
15.9 #132	Turnover rate	16.9 #196
27.7 #278	Offensive rebound rate	25.1 #338
11.1 #334	Assists per game	11.9 #288
Defense
75.4 #203	Points allowed	85.4 #361
1.09 #202	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #358
50.6 #135	Opponent effective FG%	57.1 #358
33.1 #132	Opponent 3-point %	36.9 #343
16.4 #197	Turnovers forced	15.7 #235
66.4 #312	Defensive rebound rate	64.6 #345
6.7 #149	Steals per game	6.0 #237
3.0 #212	Blocks per game	3.2 #189

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana75–84
Lvs Old Dominion73–81
Lvs Coastal71–76
Lvs James Madison65–80
Wvs GA Southern66–64

A week or more of rest.

UL Monroe

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Old Dominion80–87
L@ Troy65–80
L@ South Alabama54–89
Lvs Arkansas St94–102
Lvs Troy76–77

A week or more of rest.

Georgia State Panthers at UL Monroe Warhawks

What could decide it: GAST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia St

UL Monroe

Georgia St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Georgia St

UL Monroe