Texas Southern Tigers at Georgia State Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 12:00 AM ETGSU Convocation Center · at Georgia St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Texas Southern and Georgia St
TXSO	This season	GAST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GAST 79–68 · win probability GAST 82%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GAST has more of the edges

TXSO 2, GAST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GASTSmall

GAST offense vs TXSO defense

Offense 214th of 366 against a defense 323rd, on the model’s ratings

GASTSmall

TXSO offense vs GAST defense

Offense 311th of 366 against a defense 205th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TXSO has played the 329th-hardest schedule, GAST the 232nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

GASTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TXSO 18.5%, GAST 15.9%. Forced: TXSO 16.5%, GAST 16.4%

TXSOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TXSO 28.8%, GAST 27.7%. Defensive: TXSO 68.8%, GAST 66.4%

GASTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TXSO 38.2, GAST 37.2. Allowed: TXSO 44.0, GAST 34.9

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: TXSO plays 71.8 a game (40th fastest), GAST 69.1 (176th). Faster games mean more points

TXSOSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TXSO 37%, GAST 4%. Transfers in: TXSO 4, GAST 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

GASTSmall

Home court

GAST at home. This season: GAST 0-0 at home, TXSO 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

TXSO hits 33.1% and allows 34.1%; GAST hits 30.6% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 32.5% and 42.4% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TXSO 49.7 and allows 52.5; GAST 44.2 and allows 50.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GAST -10.7	—
Total	—	147.4	—
Projected score	—	TXSO 68.4 · GAST 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GAST -6.2	—
1H total	69.0	—
1H projected score	TXSO 31.4 · GAST 37.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXSO LLWLL	9-19	32%	3-12	—
GAST WLLLL	13-17	43%	5-7	—

Venue/role: TXSO away; GAST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXSO UOUUO	14-14	50%	10-18
GAST UOOOO	14-16	47%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSO	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
GAST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas Southern

No more games listed yet.

Georgia St

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas Southern

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

9-19

32% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W W L W W L W L W W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-1932%

L L L L W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

U O O U O U U O O O O U U U O O O O U U O U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GONZ	L 43-98	+29.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 6	@TA&M	L 70-104	+29.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsSAM	L 90-93	+2.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 15	@TXST	L 67-77	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 20	@VAN	L 74-109	+36.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 183
Dec 6	vsSHSU	L 70-82	+7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 152
Dec 14	@MINN	L 53-89	+21.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 17	@NCSU	L 72-108	+34.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 180
Dec 22	vsACU	L 68-75	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 3	@SOU	L 73-84	+6.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 5	@GRAM	L 67-84	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 10	vsUAPB	L 66-74	-1.5	L −9.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 12	vsMVSU	W 84-51	-12.5	W +20.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 17	@ALCN	W 72-71	-1.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 143
Jan 19	@JKST	L 89-94	+2.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	vsAAMU	W 89-74	+1.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 163
Jan 27	vsALST	W 96-64	-2.5	W +29.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 31	@PV	L 78-85	-1.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 163
Feb 7	@FAMU	W 62-57	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 119
Feb 9	@BCU	L 69-79	+7.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 148
Feb 14	vsGRAM	W 82-79	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 161
Feb 16	vsSOU	W 74-73	+4.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 147
Feb 19	@UAPB	W 83-64	+1.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 147
Feb 21	@MVSU	L 71-72	-11.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 26	vsALCN	W 92-87	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 179
Feb 28	vsJKST	W 82-57	-6.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 5	vsPV	L 59-70	-1.5	L −12.5	154.5	U 129
Mar 12	vsAAMU	L 74-85	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−25.5

TA&M

L 70-104

−4.5

SAM

L 90-93

−0.5

TXST

L 67-77

−5.5

VAN

L 74-109

+1.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−4.5

MINN

L 53-89

−14.5

NCSU

L 72-108

−1.5

ACU

L 68-75

−2.5

SOU

L 73-84

−4.5

GRAM

L 67-84

−11.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−9.5

MVSU

W 84-51

+20.5

ALCN

W 72-71

−0.5

JKST

L 89-94

−2.5

AAMU

W 89-74

+16.5

ALST

W 96-64

+29.5

L 78-85

−8.5

FAMU

W 62-57

+6.5

BCU

L 69-79

−2.5

GRAM

W 82-79

+1.5

SOU

W 74-73

+5.5

UAPB

W 83-64

+20.5

MVSU

L 71-72

−12.5

ALCN

W 92-87

−0.5

JKST

W 82-57

+18.5

L 59-70

−12.5

AAMU

L 74-85

−9.5

covered 9didn’t cover 19avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−16.5

TA&M

L 70-104

+12.5

SAM

L 90-93

+29.5

TXST

L 67-77

−0.5

VAN

L 74-109

+18.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−6.5

MINN

L 53-89

−2.5

NCSU

L 72-108

+27.5

ACU

L 68-75

+4.5

SOU

L 73-84

+3.5

GRAM

L 67-84

+4.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−22.5

MVSU

W 84-51

−7.5

ALCN

W 72-71

−3.5

JKST

L 89-94

+29.5

AAMU

W 89-74

+17.5

ALST

W 96-64

+4.5

L 78-85

+5.5

FAMU

W 62-57

−27.5

BCU

L 69-79

−4.5

GRAM

W 82-79

+21.5

SOU

W 74-73

−4.5

UAPB

W 83-64

−5.5

MVSU

L 71-72

−0.5

ALCN

W 92-87

+33.5

JKST

W 82-57

−13.5

L 59-70

−25.5

AAMU

L 74-85

+16.5

over 14under 14avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L W L L L L L W L W W W L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U O U U U O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	@MER	L 67-78	+10.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@KENN	L 69-92	+14.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsJXST	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 18	@GASO	L 67-90	+9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	@APP	W 70-63	+7.5	W +14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@MRSH	L 80-84	+13.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 164
Jan 3	@CCU	W 89-71	+6.5	W +24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsAPP	L 50-52	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	vsMRSH	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 154
Jan 17	@ULM	W 77-57	-6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	vsUSM	W 69-62	-1.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsARST	W 82-81	+4.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 29	@UL	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	@USA	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 4	vsTROY	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsNIU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 12	@JMU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ODU	L 55-78	+3.5	L −19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 19	vsGASO	W 66-64	+1.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	vsJMU	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 24	vsCCU	L 71-76	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	vsODU	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsUL	L 75-84	-1.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

MER

L 67-78

−0.5

KENN

L 69-92

−8.5

JXST

W 77-73

+7.5

GASO

L 67-90

−13.5

APP

W 70-63

+14.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+9.5

CCU

W 89-71

+24.5

APP

L 50-52

−0.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+12.5

ULM

W 77-57

+13.5

USM

W 69-62

+5.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

−11.5

USA

L 67-69

+3.5

TROY

L 63-74

−4.5

NIU

L 74-75

−5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+3.5

ODU

L 55-78

−19.5

GASO

W 66-64

+3.5

JMU

L 65-80

−12.5

CCU

L 71-76

−3.5

ODU

L 73-81

−6.5

L 75-84

−10.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

MER

L 67-78

−10.5

KENN

L 69-92

+2.5

JXST

W 77-73

+10.5

GASO

L 67-90

−2.5

APP

W 70-63

−4.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+12.5

CCU

W 89-71

+11.5

APP

L 50-52

−38.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+0.5

ULM

W 77-57

−21.5

USM

W 69-62

−13.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

+24.5

USA

L 67-69

−4.5

TROY

L 63-74

−7.5

NIU

L 74-75

+5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+15.5

ODU

L 55-78

−14.5

GASO

W 66-64

−24.5

JMU

L 65-80

+2.5

CCU

L 71-76

+5.5

ODU

L 73-81

+4.5

L 75-84

+24.5

over 14under 16avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia St has the better starters

Position by position: Texas Southern 0, Georgia St 3, even 2

Texas SouthernBetterGeorgia St

G K. Bilal TR5.6 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 23

GASTSmall

G J. Jackson TR12.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 51

G C. Patterson6.4 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Meyer TR12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 51

G B. Vungo TR3.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G E. Parnell TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F A. Andrews2.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 7

GASTBig

F T. Dixon TR9.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 75

C J. Gorecki2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5

GASTSmall

F J. Sirtautas TR5.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

Texas SouthernBetterGeorgia St

TXSO offense311th of 366 · -9.7

GASTSmall

GAST defense205th of 366 · -5.0

TXSO defense323rd of 366 · -8.4

GASTSmall

GAST offense214th of 366 · -6.5

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.1 · 2 players

GASTBig

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

Bench-4.2 · 5 players

Even

Bench-3.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTXSO betterGAST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Texas Southern

Guards

K. Bilal21 min · TRC. Patterson16 minB. Vungo12 min · TRA. Nedal12 minJ. Hamilton7 minJ. Kimbrough4 min · TR

Forwards

A. Andrews13 minJ. Akpovwa9 minX. Wedlow3 min · TRJ. FarmerNew

Centers

J. Gorecki17 min

Georgia St

Guards

J. Jackson33 min · TRJ. Meyer29 min · TRE. Parnell26 min · TRZ. Wilburn17 min · TRA. Smith15 min · TRD. Thomas14 min · TR

Forwards

T. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Sirtautas20 min · TRJ. Fredson-Cole19 min · TRO. WilsonNewK. JacksonNew

Centers

M. Nicholson4 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TXSO73.9 #204

GAST68.4 #307

Points per possession

TXSO1.03 #293

GAST0.99 #335

Pace (possessions)

TXSO71.8 #40

GAST69.1 #176

Shooting

Effective FG%

TXSO49.7 #251

GAST44.2 #362

3-point %

TXSO33.1 #224

GAST30.6 #329

3-point attempt rate

TXSO32.5 #324

GAST42.4 #129

Free throw rate

TXSO38.2 #96

GAST37.2 #124

Possessions

Turnover rate

TXSO18.5 #297

GAST15.9 #132

Offensive rebound rate

TXSO28.8 #237

GAST27.7 #278

Assists per game

TXSO11.1 #332

GAST11.1 #334

Defense

Points allowed

TXSO80.0 #318

GAST75.4 #203

Points allowed per possession

TXSO1.12 #260

GAST1.09 #202

Opponent effective FG%

TXSO52.5 #240

GAST50.6 #135

Opponent 3-point %

TXSO34.1 #190

GAST33.1 #132

Turnovers forced

TXSO16.5 #188

GAST16.4 #197

Defensive rebound rate

TXSO68.8 #211

GAST66.4 #312

Steals per game

TXSO6.6 #167

GAST6.7 #149

Blocks per game

TXSO3.3 #173

GAST3.0 #212

TXSO		GAST
Scoring
73.9 #204	Points per game	68.4 #307
1.03 #293	Points per possession	0.99 #335
71.8 #40	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #176
Shooting
49.7 #251	Effective FG%	44.2 #362
33.1 #224	3-point %	30.6 #329
32.5 #324	3-point attempt rate	42.4 #129
38.2 #96	Free throw rate	37.2 #124
Possessions
18.5 #297	Turnover rate	15.9 #132
28.8 #237	Offensive rebound rate	27.7 #278
11.1 #332	Assists per game	11.1 #334
Defense
80.0 #318	Points allowed	75.4 #203
1.12 #260	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #202
52.5 #240	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #135
34.1 #190	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #132
16.5 #188	Turnovers forced	16.4 #197
68.8 #211	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #312
6.6 #167	Steals per game	6.7 #149
3.3 #173	Blocks per game	3.0 #212

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas Southern

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama A&M74–85
Lvs Prairie View59–70
Wvs Jackson St82–57
Wvs Alcorn St92–87
L@ Miss Valley St71–72

A week or more of rest.

Georgia St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana75–84
Lvs Old Dominion73–81
Lvs Coastal71–76
Lvs James Madison65–80
Wvs GA Southern66–64

A week or more of rest.

Texas Southern Tigers at Georgia State Panthers

What could decide it: GAST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas Southern

Georgia St

Georgia St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Texas Southern

Georgia St