1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. UVM vs COLG
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Vermont Catamounts vs Colgate Raiders

David S. Mack Sports and Exhibition Complex · Neutral site
#186UVMVermont
vs
#211COLGColgate
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UVMThis seasonCOLG
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVM 73–72 · win probability UVM 51%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UVM 3, COLG 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UVM has played the 325th-hardest schedule, COLG the 178th. A record against a soft schedule means less
COLGSmall
Three-pointers
UVM hits 33.3% and allows 35.3%; COLG hits 35.6% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 44.6% and 35.0% of their shots
UVMSmall
COLG offense vs UVM defense
Offense 205th of 366 against a defense 134th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UVM plays 65.2 a game (342nd fastest), COLG 68.6 (202nd). Faster games mean more points
UVMSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UVM 26.2%, COLG 26.6%. Defensive: UVM 77.0%, COLG 70.7%
COLGSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UVM 31%, COLG 59%. Transfers in: UVM 4, COLG 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
COLGSmall
UVM offense vs COLG defense
Offense 264th of 366 against a defense 214th, on the model’s ratings
UVMSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UVM 53.1 and allows 50.4; COLG 53.3 and allows 52.2
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UVM 31.1, COLG 29.7. Allowed: UVM 36.4, COLG 33.8
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UVM 14.3%, COLG 14.7%. Forced: UVM 14.8%, COLG 15.2%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVM -0.3—
Total—144.7—
Projected score—UVM 72.5 · COLG 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVM -0.3—
1H total67.7—
1H projected scoreUVM 34 · COLG 33.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Vermont 2, Colgate 2, even 1
VermontBetterColgate
G D. Yepdo TR10.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 24
Even
G J. Ahayere7.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 32
G J. Broom TR2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 14
COLGBig
F A. Alekseyenko14.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 75
G M. Nkugwa2.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
COLGSmall
F S. Wright12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 60
F G. Yalden16.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 96
UVMBig
F C. Wright1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8
F N. Barnett5.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 41
UVMSmall
F A. Odetoyinbo1.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 20
VermontBetterColgate
UVM offense264th of 366 · -8.1
Even
COLG defense214th of 366 · -5.5
UVM defense134th of 366 · -2.5
UVMSmall
COLG offense205th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players
COLGBig
Backcourt-1.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players
UVMBig
Frontcourt-0.5 · 4 players
Bench-1.4 · 3 players
Even
Bench-1.1 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUVM betterCOLG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Vermont
Guards
D. Yepdo32 min · TRJ. Broom15 min · TRM. Nkugwa13 minD. Glazkov13 min · TRK. Badru10 min · TRS. Clemons2 min
Forwards
G. Yalden26 minN. Barnett22 minM. BrunettoNewM. MasicNewS. GbiegbaNew
Colgate
Guards
J. Ahayere25 minC. Pugh1 minJ. Niv1 minP. JonesNewB. ForrestNewI. SkinnNew
Forwards
A. Alekseyenko30 minS. Wright26 minC. Wright12 minA. Odetoyinbo11 minE. Brown7 minC. Brennan4 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UVMCOLG
Scoring
72.1 #237Points per game75.6 #154
1.11 #124Points per possession1.11 #121
65.2 #342Pace (possessions)68.6 #202
Shooting
53.1 #95Effective FG%53.3 #91
33.3 #2083-point %35.6 #81
44.6 #773-point attempt rate35.0 #275
31.1 #279Free throw rate29.7 #316
Possessions
14.3 #34Turnover rate14.7 #50
26.2 #318Offensive rebound rate26.6 #309
12.3 #266Assists per game14.2 #130
Defense
68.8 #44Points allowed76.2 #222
1.05 #96Points allowed per possession1.11 #230
50.4 #121Opponent effective FG%52.2 #224
35.3 #267Opponent 3-point %34.8 #238
14.8 #307Turnovers forced15.2 #268
77.0 #2Defensive rebound rate70.7 #125
4.5 #354Steals per game6.1 #230
2.7 #279Blocks per game2.9 #249
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Vermont

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC59–74
  • Wvs NJIT63–54
  • Wvs Bryant77–57
  • Wvs UAlbany69–56
  • Wvs UMass Lowell66–64

A week or more of rest.

Colgate

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Lehigh69–76
  • Wvs Loyola MD90–77
  • L@ Navy69–85
  • Lvs Lafayette69–70
  • Wvs Loyola MD101–98

A week or more of rest.