Cornell Big Red at Colgate Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETCotterell Court · at Colgate

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cornell and Colgate
COR	This season	COLG
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLG 80–80 · win probability COLG 51%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 159.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COLG has more of the edges

COR 1, COLG 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

COLGBig

COLG offense vs COR defense

Offense 205th of 366 against a defense 319th, on the model’s ratings

CORSmall

COR offense vs COLG defense

Offense 111th of 366 against a defense 214th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: COR plays 72.0 a game (36th fastest), COLG 68.6 (202nd). Faster games mean more points

COLGSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: COR 16.1%, COLG 14.7%. Forced: COR 15.0%, COLG 15.2%

COLGSmall

Home court

COLG at home. This season: COLG 0-0 at home, COR 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: COR 30.2, COLG 29.7. Allowed: COR 37.2, COLG 33.8

Context

Schedule so far

COR has played the 144th-hardest schedule, COLG the 178th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: COR 30.2%, COLG 26.6%. Defensive: COR 69.4%, COLG 70.7%

Even

Three-pointers

COR hits 38.3% and allows 37.5%; COLG hits 35.6% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 51.6% and 35.0% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: COR 58.5 and allows 55.9; COLG 53.3 and allows 52.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: COR 53%, COLG 59%. Transfers in: COR 0, COLG 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	COLG -0.3	—
Total	—	159.8	—
Projected score	—	COR 79.7 · COLG 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLG -0.0	—
1H total	74.6	—
1H projected score	COR 37.3 · COLG 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COR LWLWL	11-15	42%	9-7	—
COLG LLLWL	12-19	39%	4-9	—

Venue/role: COR away; COLG home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
COR UUOOO	14-12	54%	13-13
COLG OUOOU	17-14	55%	16-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COR	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
COLG	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cornell

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs UALB	W83–75WU

Colgate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ SYR	L72–74WU
Dec 12	@ IONA	L73–79LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

COR 5–0 COLGCOR leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · COR has won the last 5 meetings · COR 4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 20, 2025-26	COLG 94 @ COR 95	COR -5.5	COLG W
Dec 4, 2024-25	COR 84 @ COLG 57	COLG +2.5	COR W
Dec 30, 2023-24	COLG 64 @ COR 77	COR -4.5	COR W
Dec 22, 2022-23	COR 91 @ COLG 80	COLG -4.5	COR W
Nov 16, 2021-22	COLG 68 @ COR 78	COR +11.5	COR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cornell

26 games played

Straight up

13-13

50% wins

Against the spread

11-15

42% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-12

54% overs · avg +6.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1350%

L L W W W W L L L W L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-1542%

L L W L L W L L L W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1254%

O U O U O O O O O U O O O U U O U U U U U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@KENT	L 102-110	+6.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 212
Nov 9	@ILST	L 65-76	+6.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 13	@LAF	W 97-78	-4.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 18	vsARMY	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 159
Nov 20	vsCOLG	W 95-94	-5.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 189
Nov 30	@BUCK	W 101-72	-5.5	W +23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 2	@GMU	L 81-99	+10.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 180
Dec 3	@TOW	L 80-93	+6.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 173
Dec 7	@SAM	L 90-93	+2.5	L −0.5	166.5	O 183
Dec 21	@UALB	W 83-75	-6.5	W +1.5	167.5	U 158
Dec 29	@MSU	L 97-114	+23.5	W +6.5	160.5	O 211
Jan 5	vsCOLU	L 99-104	-3.5	L −8.5	170.5	O 203
Jan 10	vsDART	L 91-102	-9.5	L −20.5	175.5	O 193
Jan 17	@YALE	L 68-102	+9.5	L −24.5	174.5	U 170
Jan 19	@BRWN	W 89-67	-2.5	W +19.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	@HARV	W 86-79	+1.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 165
Jan 30	vsPRIN	W 87-64	-7.5	W +15.5	158.5	U 151
Jan 31	vsPENN	L 81-91	-7.5	L −17.5	173.5	U 172
Feb 7	@COLU	W 88-67	-1.5	W +19.5	171.5	U 155
Feb 13	@PRIN	W 89-65	-3.5	W +20.5	155.5	U 154
Feb 14	@PENN	L 76-82	-2.5	L −8.5	169.5	U 158
Feb 21	vsHARV	L 54-73	-4.5	L −23.5	155.5	U 127
Feb 27	vsYALE	W 72-69	+4.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 141
Feb 28	vsBRWN	W 86-80	-9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 166
Mar 7	@DART	W 111-90	-4.5	W +16.5	166.5	O 201
Mar 14	vsYALE	L 76-88	+5.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

−1.5

ILST

L 65-76

−4.5

LAF

W 97-78

+14.5

ARMY

W 86-73

−4.5

COLG

W 95-94

−4.5

BUCK

W 101-72

+23.5

GMU

L 81-99

−7.5

TOW

L 80-93

−6.5

SAM

L 90-93

−0.5

UALB

W 83-75

+1.5

MSU

L 97-114

+6.5

COLU

L 99-104

−8.5

DART

L 91-102

−20.5

YALE

L 68-102

−24.5

BRWN

W 89-67

+19.5

HARV

W 86-79

+8.5

PRIN

W 87-64

+15.5

PENN

L 81-91

−17.5

COLU

W 88-67

+19.5

PRIN

W 89-65

+20.5

PENN

L 76-82

−8.5

HARV

L 54-73

−23.5

YALE

W 72-69

+7.5

BRWN

W 86-80

−3.5

DART

W 111-90

+16.5

YALE

L 76-88

−6.5

covered 11didn’t cover 15avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

+47.5

ILST

L 65-76

−23.5

LAF

W 97-78

+14.5

ARMY

W 86-73

−5.5

COLG

W 95-94

+27.5

BUCK

W 101-72

+13.5

GMU

L 81-99

+24.5

TOW

L 80-93

+18.5

SAM

L 90-93

+16.5

UALB

W 83-75

−9.5

MSU

L 97-114

+50.5

COLU

L 99-104

+32.5

DART

L 91-102

+17.5

YALE

L 68-102

−4.5

BRWN

W 89-67

−7.5

HARV

W 86-79

+4.5

PRIN

W 87-64

−7.5

PENN

L 81-91

−1.5

COLU

W 88-67

−16.5

PRIN

W 89-65

−1.5

PENN

L 76-82

−11.5

HARV

L 54-73

−28.5

YALE

W 72-69

−23.5

BRWN

W 86-80

+9.5

DART

W 111-90

+34.5

YALE

L 76-88

+0.5

over 14under 12avg +6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colgate

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L L W L W L W W L L L W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

W L W W W W L W W L L W L L L L W L L L L W W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O O U O O O U U O O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MSU	L 69-80	+22.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 7	vsNE	L 65-68	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	vsDREX	W 90-83	-3.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 14	@ILL	L 65-84	+30.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 17	@SIE	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 20	@COR	L 94-95	+5.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 189
Nov 28	vsUALB	W 69-67	-7.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsFOR	W 72-62	-1.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 10	@SBU	L 77-85	+9.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 162
Dec 21	@FLA	L 60-90	+27.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 28	vsHARV	L 69-78	-3.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 31	@LAF	W 85-77	-6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@ARMY	W 76-69	-7.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 7	vsAMER	W 64-62	-5.5	L −3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsLEH	L 77-78	-11.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@L-MD	W 86-80	-8.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 17	vsBUCK	W 95-76	-8.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	@AMER	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsBU	W 80-79	-7.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsHC	W 79-74	-10.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 31	@LEH	L 76-77	-3.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 4	vsARMY	W 69-55	-10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Feb 7	@BUCK	W 78-59	-5.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 11	@HC	W 74-70	-8.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 14	vsNAVY	L 80-84	-1.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 16	@BU	L 58-85	-2.5	L −29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 21	vsL-MD	W 101-98	-8.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 199
Feb 25	vsLAF	L 69-70	-8.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	@NAVY	L 69-85	+6.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 154
Mar 5	vsL-MD	W 90-77	-6.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 167
Mar 8	@LEH	L 69-76	-2.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+11.5

L 65-68

−8.5

DREX

W 90-83

+3.5

ILL

L 65-84

+11.5

SIE

W 72-69

+9.5

COR

L 94-95

+4.5

UALB

W 69-67

−5.5

FOR

W 72-62

+8.5

SBU

L 77-85

+1.5

FLA

L 60-90

−2.5

HARV

L 69-78

−12.5

LAF

W 85-77

+1.5

ARMY

W 76-69

−0.5

AMER

W 64-62

−3.5

LEH

L 77-78

−12.5

L-MD

W 86-80

−2.5

BUCK

W 95-76

+10.5

AMER

L 66-70

−2.5

W 80-79

−6.5

W 79-74

−5.5

LEH

L 76-77

−4.5

ARMY

W 69-55

+3.5

BUCK

W 78-59

+13.5

W 74-70

−4.5

NAVY

L 80-84

−5.5

L 58-85

−29.5

L-MD

W 101-98

−5.5

LAF

L 69-70

−9.5

NAVY

L 69-85

−9.5

L-MD

W 90-77

+6.5

LEH

L 69-76

−9.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+4.5

L 65-68

−14.5

DREX

W 90-83

+29.5

ILL

L 65-84

−15.5

SIE

W 72-69

−5.5

COR

L 94-95

+27.5

UALB

W 69-67

−5.5

FOR

W 72-62

−8.5

SBU

L 77-85

+19.5

FLA

L 60-90

−6.5

HARV

L 69-78

+5.5

LAF

W 85-77

+15.5

ARMY

W 76-69

−2.5

AMER

W 64-62

−22.5

LEH

L 77-78

+12.5

L-MD

W 86-80

+15.5

BUCK

W 95-76

+31.5

AMER

L 66-70

−10.5

W 80-79

+11.5

W 79-74

+8.5

LEH

L 76-77

+6.5

ARMY

W 69-55

−26.5

BUCK

W 78-59

−4.5

W 74-70

+1.5

NAVY

L 80-84

+24.5

L 58-85

−2.5

L-MD

W 101-98

+48.5

LAF

L 69-70

−9.5

NAVY

L 69-85

+12.5

L-MD

W 90-77

+11.5

LEH

L 69-76

−1.5

over 17under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Cornell 1, Colgate 1, even 3

CornellBetterColgate

G J. Beccles7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 37

Even

G J. Ahayere7.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 32

G A. Nimani5.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 30

COLGBig

F A. Alekseyenko14.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 75

G M. Rafiq4.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

F S. Wright12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 60

F K. Sepp4.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 28

CORSmall

F C. Wright1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

F G. Panzini2.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 9

Even

F A. Odetoyinbo1.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 20

CornellBetterColgate

COR offense111th of 366 · -1.8

CORSmall

COLG defense214th of 366 · -5.5

COR defense319th of 366 · -8.3

COLGSmall

COLG offense205th of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-1.6 · 1 player

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

COLGSmall

Frontcourt-0.5 · 4 players

Bench-1.3 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.1 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCOR betterCOLG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cornell

Guards

J. Beccles24 minA. Nimani18 minM. Rafiq8 minD. Fishburn8 minR. Burbach8 minE. GriffinNew

Forwards

K. Sepp19 minG. Panzini10 minI. Imegwu5 minJ. Abalos5 minT. Iwanonkiw3 minB. LecklitnerNew

Colgate

Guards

J. Ahayere25 minC. Pugh1 minJ. Niv1 minP. JonesNewB. ForrestNewI. SkinnNew

Forwards

A. Alekseyenko30 minS. Wright26 minC. Wright12 minA. Odetoyinbo11 minE. Brown7 minC. Brennan4 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

COR85.8 #13

COLG75.6 #154

Points per possession

COR1.20 #17

COLG1.11 #121

Pace (possessions)

COR72.0 #36

COLG68.6 #202

Shooting

Effective FG%

COR58.5 #7

COLG53.3 #91

3-point %

COR38.3 #14

COLG35.6 #81

3-point attempt rate

COR51.6 #8

COLG35.0 #275

Free throw rate

COR30.2 #304

COLG29.7 #316

Possessions

Turnover rate

COR16.1 #144

COLG14.7 #50

Offensive rebound rate

COR30.2 #193

COLG26.6 #309

Assists per game

COR20.0 #1

COLG14.2 #130

Defense

Points allowed

COR84.6 #358

COLG76.2 #222

Points allowed per possession

COR1.17 #343

COLG1.11 #230

Opponent effective FG%

COR55.9 #343

COLG52.2 #224

Opponent 3-point %

COR37.5 #349

COLG34.8 #238

Turnovers forced

COR15.0 #287

COLG15.2 #268

Defensive rebound rate

COR69.4 #187

COLG70.7 #125

Steals per game

COR5.8 #263

COLG6.1 #230

Blocks per game

COR2.8 #267

COLG2.9 #249

COR		COLG
Scoring
85.8 #13	Points per game	75.6 #154
1.20 #17	Points per possession	1.11 #121
72.0 #36	Pace (possessions)	68.6 #202
Shooting
58.5 #7	Effective FG%	53.3 #91
38.3 #14	3-point %	35.6 #81
51.6 #8	3-point attempt rate	35.0 #275
30.2 #304	Free throw rate	29.7 #316
Possessions
16.1 #144	Turnover rate	14.7 #50
30.2 #193	Offensive rebound rate	26.6 #309
20.0 #1	Assists per game	14.2 #130
Defense
84.6 #358	Points allowed	76.2 #222
1.17 #343	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #230
55.9 #343	Opponent effective FG%	52.2 #224
37.5 #349	Opponent 3-point %	34.8 #238
15.0 #287	Turnovers forced	15.2 #268
69.4 #187	Defensive rebound rate	70.7 #125
5.8 #263	Steals per game	6.1 #230
2.8 #267	Blocks per game	2.9 #249

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cornell

13-13 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Yale76–88
W@ Dartmouth111–90
Wvs Brown86–80
Wvs Yale72–69
Lvs Harvard54–73

A week or more of rest.

Colgate

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh69–76
Wvs Loyola MD90–77
L@ Navy69–85
Lvs Lafayette69–70
Wvs Loyola MD101–98

A week or more of rest.

Cornell Big Red at Colgate Raiders

What could decide it: COLG has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Cornell

Colgate

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cornell

Colgate