St. Thomas Tommies at Bucknell Bison: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETSojka Pavilion · at Bucknell

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: St Thomas and Bucknell
STMN	This season	BUCK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STMN 76–71 · win probability STMN 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

STMN 7, BUCK 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STMNBig

Three-pointers

STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%; BUCK hits 30.6% and allows 37.0%. Threes are 46.3% and 42.8% of their shots

STMNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7; BUCK 48.5 and allows 54.7

STMNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STMN 14.4%, BUCK 18.9%. Forced: STMN 17.0%, BUCK 17.9%

Context

Schedule so far

STMN has played the 341st-hardest schedule, BUCK the 227th. A record against a soft schedule means less

STMNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: STMN 33.8, BUCK 29.8. Allowed: STMN 30.7, BUCK 35.3

STMNSmall

BUCK offense vs STMN defense

Offense 317th of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings

STMNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STMN 22.6%, BUCK 27.0%. Defensive: STMN 73.4%, BUCK 68.7%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: STMN plays 69.7 a game (137th fastest), BUCK 67.7 (242nd). Faster games mean more points

BUCKSmall

Home court

BUCK at home. This season: BUCK 0-0 at home, STMN 0-0 away

STMNSmall

STMN offense vs BUCK defense

Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 237th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STMN 35%, BUCK 39%. Transfers in: STMN 3, BUCK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	STMN -5.3	—
Total	—	146.2	—
Projected score	—	STMN 75.8 · BUCK 70.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STMN -3.3	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	STMN 35.8 · BUCK 32.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STMN WWWLL	15-16	48%	8-7	—
BUCK LWLWW	14-19	42%	5-9	—

Venue/role: STMN away; BUCK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STMN UUUUU	16-15	52%	21-10
BUCK UOOUO	13-20	39%	10-23

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STMN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
BUCK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

St Thomas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	vs UNCA	W80–59WU
Dec 12	vs ARST	No recent meeting
Dec 15	vs UCSD	No recent meeting

Bucknell

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ UMBC	L66–73LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Thomas

31 games played

Straight up

21-10

68% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1068%

L W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L W W L L W L W W L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U O U O U U O O O O O U U O O O U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 3	@MTST	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 156
Dec 7	vsWEB	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 13	@UNCA	W 80-59	-3.5	W +17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsUCR	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 4	vsDEN	W 92-88	-11.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 180
Jan 7	vsSDAK	W 99-86	-14.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 10	@ORU	W 82-71	-8.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 15	@UND	W 91-80	-10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 17	@NDSU	L 65-68	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	vsSDST	W 74-69	-6.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	@SDAK	W 90-78	-10.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 29	vsUND	L 80-81	-11.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsKC	W 99-64	-17.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	@SDST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsORU	W 92-75	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 12	@OMA	L 94-98	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 192
Feb 14	@KC	W 104-64	-12.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 21	@DEN	L 80-82	-3.5	L −5.5	168.5	U 162
Feb 26	vsNDSU	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsOMA	W 68-53	-11.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 121
Mar 5	vsSDST	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 7	vsUND	L 66-67	-11.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 133
Mar 17	@SEA	L 52-67	+2.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

MTST

L 74-82

−5.5

WEB

W 88-65

+15.5

UNCA

W 80-59

+17.5

UCR

W 92-78

−0.5

DEN

W 92-88

−7.5

SDAK

W 99-86

−1.5

ORU

W 82-71

+2.5

UND

W 91-80

+0.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−0.5

SDST

W 74-69

−1.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+1.5

UND

L 80-81

−12.5

W 99-64

+17.5

SDST

W 77-62

+16.5

ORU

W 92-75

+1.5

OMA

L 94-98

−8.5

W 104-64

+27.5

DEN

L 80-82

−5.5

NDSU

W 84-62

+18.5

OMA

W 68-53

+3.5

SDST

W 80-67

+8.5

UND

L 66-67

−12.5

SEA

L 52-67

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

MTST

L 74-82

+8.5

WEB

W 88-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-59

−9.5

UCR

W 92-78

+17.5

DEN

W 92-88

+16.5

SDAK

W 99-86

+22.5

ORU

W 82-71

+0.5

UND

W 91-80

+19.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−18.5

SDST

W 74-69

−12.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+6.5

UND

L 80-81

+8.5

W 99-64

+11.5

SDST

W 77-62

−18.5

ORU

W 92-75

+15.5

OMA

L 94-98

+35.5

W 104-64

+13.5

DEN

L 80-82

−6.5

NDSU

W 84-62

−9.5

OMA

W 68-53

−37.5

SDST

W 80-67

−3.5

UND

L 66-67

−20.5

SEA

L 52-67

−26.5

over 16under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucknell

33 games played

Straight up

10-23

30% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2330%

W W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

W W L L L L W W L W L W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

U U U O U U U U O O U U U U U U U O O O U O O U U O O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	@RID	W 51-38	-2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 20	@IOWA	L 39-94	+25.5	L −29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 31	@HC	L 58-65	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsLEH	W 72-65	-4.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	@NAVY	L 55-76	+8.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsL-MD	W 70-67	-6.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsLAF	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	@COLG	L 76-95	+8.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsARMY	L 84-87	-4.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 171
Jan 24	@L-MD	L 62-67	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	@LAF	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBU	W 103-97	+1.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 4	@AMER	W 60-59	+7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsCOLG	L 59-78	+5.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 9	vsNAVY	L 60-76	+6.5	L −9.5	135.5	O 136
Feb 14	@BU	L 69-82	+5.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsAMER	L 57-75	+3.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	vsHC	L 63-72	-2.5	L −11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@ARMY	W 75-73	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 28	@LEH	L 79-89	+5.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsARMY	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NAVY	L 69-74	+15.5	W +10.5	133.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

RID

W 51-38

+10.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−29.5

L 58-65

−8.5

LEH

W 72-65

+2.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−12.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−3.5

LAF

W 76-69

+4.5

COLG

L 76-95

−10.5

ARMY

L 84-87

−7.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−2.5

LAF

L 79-81

+2.5

W 103-97

+7.5

AMER

W 60-59

+8.5

COLG

L 59-78

−13.5

NAVY

L 60-76

−9.5

L 69-82

−7.5

AMER

L 57-75

−14.5

L 63-72

−11.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+4.5

LEH

L 79-89

−4.5

ARMY

W 65-55

+8.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

RID

W 51-38

−46.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−0.5

L 58-65

−10.5

LEH

W 72-65

−0.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−6.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−6.5

LAF

W 76-69

+7.5

COLG

L 76-95

+31.5

ARMY

L 84-87

+26.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−18.5

LAF

L 79-81

+21.5

W 103-97

+61.5

AMER

W 60-59

−22.5

COLG

L 59-78

−4.5

NAVY

L 60-76

+0.5

L 69-82

+13.5

AMER

L 57-75

−8.5

L 63-72

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+5.5

LEH

L 79-89

+29.5

ARMY

W 65-55

−24.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+9.5

over 13under 20avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St Thomas has the better starters

Position by position: St Thomas 1, Bucknell 0, even 4

St ThomasBetterBucknell

G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57

STMNSmall

G J. Williams7.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 23

G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24

Even

G A. Pachucki5.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 25

F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25

No call

G K. Marshall TR3.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9

Even

G J. Meachem1.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 2

F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

F L. Soroa Schaller TR5.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 13

St ThomasBetterBucknell

STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9

Even

BUCK defense237th of 366 · -6.2

STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8

STMNSmall

BUCK offense317th of 366 · -10.4

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

STMNBig

Backcourt-6.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players

BUCKSmall

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestSTMN betterBUCK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

St Thomas

Guards

A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min

Forwards

C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew

Bucknell

Guards

J. Williams33 minA. Pachucki21 minK. Marshall17 min · TRJ. Meachem10 minM. Lange3 minR. LamunoNew

Forwards

L. Soroa Schaller21 min · TRP. O'Brien10 minK. Welch2 minE. Marten-ConeyNewL. BergsengNewA. RousseauNew

Centers

D. KennardNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STMN80.9 #48

BUCK67.4 #327

Points per possession

STMN1.16 #45

BUCK0.99 #332

Pace (possessions)

STMN69.7 #137

BUCK67.7 #242

Shooting

Effective FG%

STMN58.9 #5

BUCK48.5 #304

3-point %

STMN36.0 #57

BUCK30.6 #328

3-point attempt rate

STMN46.3 #41

BUCK42.8 #123

Free throw rate

STMN33.8 #220

BUCK29.8 #314

Possessions

Turnover rate

STMN14.4 #37

BUCK18.9 #319

Offensive rebound rate

STMN22.6 #353

BUCK27.0 #295

Assists per game

STMN16.4 #37

BUCK12.7 #235

Defense

Points allowed

STMN73.1 #135

BUCK76.3 #226

Points allowed per possession

STMN1.05 #82

BUCK1.13 #289

Opponent effective FG%

STMN50.7 #139

BUCK54.7 #323

Opponent 3-point %

STMN31.7 #52

BUCK37.0 #344

Turnovers forced

STMN17.0 #152

BUCK17.9 #100

Defensive rebound rate

STMN73.4 #25

BUCK68.7 #216

Steals per game

STMN7.5 #87

BUCK7.2 #105

Blocks per game

STMN2.6 #296

BUCK1.8 #354

STMN		BUCK
Scoring
80.9 #48	Points per game	67.4 #327
1.16 #45	Points per possession	0.99 #332
69.7 #137	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #242
Shooting
58.9 #5	Effective FG%	48.5 #304
36.0 #57	3-point %	30.6 #328
46.3 #41	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #123
33.8 #220	Free throw rate	29.8 #314
Possessions
14.4 #37	Turnover rate	18.9 #319
22.6 #353	Offensive rebound rate	27.0 #295
16.4 #37	Assists per game	12.7 #235
Defense
73.1 #135	Points allowed	76.3 #226
1.05 #82	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #289
50.7 #139	Opponent effective FG%	54.7 #323
31.7 #52	Opponent 3-point %	37.0 #344
17.0 #152	Turnovers forced	17.9 #100
73.4 #25	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #216
7.5 #87	Steals per game	7.2 #105
2.6 #296	Blocks per game	1.8 #354

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Seattle U52–67
Lvs North Dakota66–67
Wvs S Dakota St80–67
Wvs Omaha68–53
Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.

Bucknell

10-23 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Navy69–74
Wvs Army65–55
L@ Lehigh79–89
W@ Army75–73
Lvs Holy Cross63–72

A week or more of rest.

St. Thomas Tommies at Bucknell Bison

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

St Thomas

Bucknell

St Thomas has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

St Thomas

Bucknell