1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 10
  3. UNCA @ STMN
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 10

UNC Asheville Bulldogs at St. Thomas Tommies

Lee & Penny Anderson Arena · at St Thomas
#271UNCAUNC Asheville
@
#212STMNSt Thomas
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCAThis seasonSTMN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STMN 77–69 · win probability STMN 77%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

UNCA 0, STMN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
STMNBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNCA 17.4%, STMN 14.4%. Forced: UNCA 15.5%, STMN 17.0%
Context
Schedule so far
UNCA has played the 214th-hardest schedule, STMN the 341st. A record against a soft schedule means less
STMNBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNCA 51.0 and allows 51.3; STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7
STMNSmall
UNCA offense vs STMN defense
Offense 294th of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings
STMNSmall
Home court
STMN at home. This season: STMN 0-0 at home, UNCA 0-0 away
STMNSmall
Three-pointers
UNCA hits 35.1% and allows 32.6%; STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 33.6% and 46.3% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UNCA plays 68.0 a game (230th fastest), STMN 69.7 (137th). Faster games mean more points
Even
STMN offense vs UNCA defense
Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 230th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNCA 29.8%, STMN 22.6%. Defensive: UNCA 68.7%, STMN 73.4%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNCA 40.0, STMN 33.8. Allowed: UNCA 38.7, STMN 30.7
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNCA 30%, STMN 35%. Transfers in: UNCA 4, STMN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—STMN -8.3—
Total—145.6—
Projected score—UNCA 68.7 · STMN 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSTMN -4.8—
1H total68.1—
1H projected scoreUNCA 31.6 · STMN 36.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

St Thomas has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Asheville 0, St Thomas 2, even 3
UNC AshevilleBetterSt Thomas
G K. Phipps TR4.1 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 15
STMNBig
G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57
G K. Dunn TR7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 9
STMNSmall
G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24
G J. Anderson TR1.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25
F M. Mayfield4 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 5
Even
F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9
F D. Thomas2.6 pts · 5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5
No call
F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
UNC AshevilleBetterSt Thomas
UNCA offense294th of 366 · -9.1
STMNSmall
STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8
UNCA defense230th of 366 · -6.1
Even
STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9
Backcourt-4.7 · 3 players
STMNBig
Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-5.8 · 2 players
STMNSmall
Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players
Bench-2.6 · 3 players
STMNSmall
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNCA betterSTMN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UNC Asheville
Guards
K. Phipps18 min · TRK. Dunn17 min · TRJ. Anderson17 min · TRC. Jones7 minT. ChatmanNewC. DubskyNew
Forwards
M. Mayfield23 minD. Thomas21 minA. Magassa10 min · TRS. Tolentino8 minB. RiversNewQ. MansfieldNew
St Thomas
Guards
A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min
Forwards
C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCASTMN
Scoring
71.9 #248Points per game80.9 #48
1.06 #236Points per possession1.16 #45
68.0 #230Pace (possessions)69.7 #137
Shooting
51.0 #194Effective FG%58.9 #5
35.1 #1103-point %36.0 #57
33.6 #3073-point attempt rate46.3 #41
40.0 #60Free throw rate33.8 #220
Possessions
17.4 #230Turnover rate14.4 #37
29.8 #211Offensive rebound rate22.6 #353
10.1 #358Assists per game16.4 #37
Defense
74.2 #161Points allowed73.1 #135
1.09 #203Points allowed per possession1.05 #82
51.3 #175Opponent effective FG%50.7 #139
32.6 #93Opponent 3-point %31.7 #52
15.5 #251Turnovers forced17.0 #152
68.7 #218Defensive rebound rate73.4 #25
5.1 #324Steals per game7.5 #87
3.5 #133Blocks per game2.6 #296
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Asheville

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point71–75
  • Wvs Longwood85–82
  • Lvs Charleston So75–92
  • W@ Gardner-Webb77–71
  • Wvs Radford74–73

A week or more of rest.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Seattle U52–67
  • Lvs North Dakota66–67
  • Wvs S Dakota St80–67
  • Wvs Omaha68–53
  • Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.