Air Force Falcons at Austin Peay Governors: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 10, 8:00 PM ETF&M Bank Arena · at Austin Peay

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Air Force and Austin Peay
AF	This season	APSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects APSU 75–70 · win probability APSU 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: APSU has more of the edges

AF 1, APSU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

APSUBig

Three-pointers

AF hits 30.6% and allows 37.6%; APSU hits 35.3% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 41.8% and 38.0% of their shots

APSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AF 21.9%, APSU 15.4%. Forced: AF 15.1%, APSU 17.9%

Context

Schedule so far

AF has played the 119th-hardest schedule, APSU the 318th. A record against a soft schedule means less

APSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: AF 48.9 and allows 56.4; APSU 53.0 and allows 52.2

APSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AF 21.4%, APSU 29.7%. Defensive: AF 68.7%, APSU 71.1%

AFBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AF 100%, APSU 30%. Transfers in: AF 0, APSU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

APSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: AF 35.1, APSU 37.6. Allowed: AF 36.6, APSU 32.8

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: AF plays 67.4 a game (259th fastest), APSU 70.1 (114th). Faster games mean more points

APSUSmall

Home court

APSU at home. This season: APSU 0-0 at home, AF 0-0 away

APSUSmall

AF offense vs APSU defense

Offense 290th of 366 against a defense 240th, on the model’s ratings

Even

APSU offense vs AF defense

Offense 174th of 366 against a defense 149th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	APSU -5.0	—
Total	—	144.6	—
Projected score	—	AF 69.8 · APSU 74.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	APSU -2.8	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	AF 32.4 · APSU 35.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AF WWLWL	10-22	31%	5-7	—
APSU LLLLL	14-15	48%	7-4	—

Venue/role: AF away; APSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AF OUOUU	18-14	56%	3-29
APSU UOOUO	14-15	48%	20-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AF	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
APSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Air Force

No more games listed yet.

Austin Peay

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ SEA	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

AF 0–1 APSUAPSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · AF 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	APSU 74 @ AF 54	AF +1.5	APSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Air Force

32 games played

Straight up

3-29

9% wins

Against the spread

10-22

31% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-299%

L L L L W W W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

25 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2231%

L L W L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

U U O U U O O U U O U O U U O O O O U O U O O O O O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BEL	L 63-79	+15.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsAPSU	L 54-74	+1.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	vsLIU	L 72-76	+5.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsM-OH	L 61-76	+10.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 19	vsALST	W 66-64	-2.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsSIUE	W 77-63	+2.5	W +16.5	130.5	O 140
Nov 23	vsIUIN	W 98-85	-3.5	W +9.5	175.5	O 183
Nov 26	vsUNCO	L 53-71	+4.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 124
Nov 29	vsSDAK	L 63-80	+3.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsPAC	L 65-80	+5.5	L −9.5	134.5	O 145
Dec 7	@NAVY	L 56-61	+9.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 117
Dec 17	@SDSU	L 58-81	+24.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 139
Dec 30	vsWYO	L 56-68	+14.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 124
Jan 3	@UNLV	L 39-67	+14.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 106
Jan 6	vsUSU	L 62-99	+22.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 10	vsUNM	L 49-91	+16.5	L −25.5	138.5	O 140
Jan 13	@SJSU	L 62-70	+5.5	L −2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsNEV	L 66-81	+14.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 20	@CSU	L 52-81	+19.5	L −9.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 24	@BOIS	L 54-96	+23.5	L −18.5	137.5	O 150
Jan 31	vsFRES	L 62-79	+9.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 3	@GCU	L 57-81	+26.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 138
Feb 7	vsSDSU	L 54-88	+22.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 142
Feb 10	vsCSU	L 74-91	+16.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 165
Feb 14	@FRES	L 63-93	+14.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 156
Feb 17	@UNM	L 61-98	+28.5	L −8.5	148.5	O 159
Feb 21	vsUNLV	L 66-91	+16.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsSJSU	L 80-86	+6.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	@WYO	L 62-66	+20.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 128
Mar 3	vsGCU	L 60-86	+19.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 146
Mar 7	@NEV	L 59-74	+24.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsNEV	L 45-80	+19.5	L −15.5	140.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−0.5

APSU

L 54-74

−18.5

LIU

L 72-76

+1.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−4.5

ALST

W 66-64

−0.5

SIUE

W 77-63

+16.5

IUIN

W 98-85

+9.5

UNCO

L 53-71

−13.5

SDAK

L 63-80

−13.5

PAC

L 65-80

−9.5

NAVY

L 56-61

+4.5

SDSU

L 58-81

+1.5

WYO

L 56-68

+2.5

UNLV

L 39-67

−13.5

USU

L 62-99

−14.5

UNM

L 49-91

−25.5

SJSU

L 62-70

−2.5

NEV

L 66-81

−0.5

CSU

L 52-81

−9.5

BOIS

L 54-96

−18.5

FRES

L 62-79

−7.5

GCU

L 57-81

+2.5

SDSU

L 54-88

−11.5

CSU

L 74-91

−0.5

FRES

L 63-93

−15.5

UNM

L 61-98

−8.5

UNLV

L 66-91

−8.5

SJSU

L 80-86

+0.5

WYO

L 62-66

+16.5

GCU

L 60-86

−6.5

NEV

L 59-74

+9.5

NEV

L 45-80

−15.5

covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−2.5

APSU

L 54-74

−8.5

LIU

L 72-76

+10.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−6.5

ALST

W 66-64

−8.5

SIUE

W 77-63

+9.5

IUIN

W 98-85

+7.5

UNCO

L 53-71

−22.5

SDAK

L 63-80

−4.5

PAC

L 65-80

+10.5

NAVY

L 56-61

−16.5

SDSU

L 58-81

+3.5

WYO

L 56-68

−22.5

UNLV

L 39-67

−36.5

USU

L 62-99

+21.5

UNM

L 49-91

+1.5

SJSU

L 62-70

+3.5

NEV

L 66-81

+12.5

CSU

L 52-81

−0.5

BOIS

L 54-96

+12.5

FRES

L 62-79

−0.5

GCU

L 57-81

+0.5

SDSU

L 54-88

+2.5

CSU

L 74-91

+27.5

FRES

L 63-93

+13.5

UNM

L 61-98

+10.5

UNLV

L 66-91

+3.5

SJSU

L 80-86

+20.5

WYO

L 62-66

−17.5

GCU

L 60-86

+2.5

NEV

L 59-74

−11.5

NEV

L 45-80

−15.5

over 18under 14avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Austin Peay

29 games played

Straight up

20-9

69% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-969%

W L W L L W L L W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

W L W W L W L L W W L W W L L W L W L W W W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U U U U O U O U O O U U U U O U U O O O O O O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AF	W 74-54	-1.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	@WYO	L 65-79	+5.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	@UNCG	W 69-63	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 18	@MISS	L 65-72	+20.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@TLSA	L 75-84	+8.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsNIU	W 77-59	-6.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 3	@KENT	L 84-96	+8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 180
Dec 7	@RGV	L 50-63	+2.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 113
Dec 12	vsETSU	W 76-75	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 151
Jan 1	vsUNF	W 102-83	-15.5	W +3.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 3	vsJAX	W 71-68	-10.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 139
Jan 8	@FGCU	W 82-71	+3.5	W +14.5	153.5	U 153
Jan 10	@STET	W 81-69	-9.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 150
Jan 15	vsEKU	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 146
Jan 17	@LIP	L 78-82	+2.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 22	vsFGCU	W 83-62	-6.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 23	vsSTET	W 73-65	-16.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 138
Jan 28	@EKU	W 90-82	-2.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 172
Jan 31	@WGA	W 81-78	-7.5	L −4.5	150.5	O 159
Feb 4	vsLIP	W 87-76	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsUNA	W 91-62	-12.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 11	@QUC	W 95-87	+2.5	W +10.5	161.5	O 182
Feb 14	vsBELL	W 90-70	-9.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 160
Feb 19	@UNF	W 77-76	-11.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 153
Feb 21	@JAX	W 65-61	-6.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 126
Feb 25	vsCARK	L 88-93	-4.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 28	@BELL	L 97-111	-5.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 208
Mar 6	vsSTET	W 69-60	-11.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 129
Mar 7	vsQUC	L 83-90	-2.5	L −9.5	161.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 74-54

+18.5

WYO

L 65-79

−8.5

UNCG

W 69-63

+7.5

MISS

L 65-72

+13.5

TLSA

L 75-84

−0.5

NIU

W 77-59

+11.5

KENT

L 84-96

−3.5

RGV

L 50-63

−10.5

ETSU

W 76-75

+4.5

UNF

W 102-83

+3.5

JAX

W 71-68

−7.5

FGCU

W 82-71

+14.5

STET

W 81-69

+2.5

EKU

W 74-72

−5.5

LIP

L 78-82

−1.5

FGCU

W 83-62

+14.5

STET

W 73-65

−8.5

EKU

W 90-82

+5.5

WGA

W 81-78

−4.5

LIP

W 87-76

+6.5

UNA

W 91-62

+16.5

QUC

W 95-87

+10.5

BELL

W 90-70

+10.5

UNF

W 77-76

−10.5

JAX

W 65-61

−2.5

CARK

L 88-93

−9.5

BELL

L 97-111

−19.5

STET

W 69-60

−2.5

QUC

L 83-90

−9.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 74-54

−8.5

WYO

L 65-79

−9.5

UNCG

W 69-63

−13.5

MISS

L 65-72

−8.5

TLSA

L 75-84

+10.5

NIU

W 77-59

−11.5

KENT

L 84-96

+26.5

RGV

L 50-63

−38.5

ETSU

W 76-75

+7.5

UNF

W 102-83

+22.5

JAX

W 71-68

−1.5

FGCU

W 82-71

−0.5

STET

W 81-69

−0.5

EKU

W 74-72

−7.5

LIP

L 78-82

+4.5

FGCU

W 83-62

−10.5

STET

W 73-65

−10.5

EKU

W 90-82

+20.5

WGA

W 81-78

+8.5

LIP

W 87-76

+6.5

UNA

W 91-62

+7.5

QUC

W 95-87

+20.5

BELL

W 90-70

+6.5

UNF

W 77-76

−13.5

JAX

W 65-61

−16.5

CARK

L 88-93

+28.5

BELL

L 97-111

+54.5

STET

W 69-60

−24.5

QUC

L 83-90

+11.5

over 14under 15avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Air Force 1, Austin Peay 1, even 3

Air ForceBetterAustin Peay

G K. Sanders12.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 77

AFSmall

G Z. Collins13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 60

G E. Greenberg6.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 18

APSUSmall

G C. Love TR7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 44

F L. Hobin11.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26

Even

G S. Hugie TR4.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 32

F E. Robinson7.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 39

No call

G C. Ryans NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F C. Walker10.4 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 82

Even

F R. Marshall16.3 pts · 7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 92

Air ForceBetterAustin Peay

AF offense290th of 366 · -8.9

Even

APSU defense240th of 366 · -6.3

AF defense149th of 366 · -3.3

Even

APSU offense174th of 366 · -5.4

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 3 players

APSUBig

Frontcourt+3.8 · 1 player

Bench-7.9 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestAF betterAPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Air Force

Guards

K. Sanders30 minE. Greenberg27 minA. Patterson14 minJ. Hinds12 minE. Taite2 minT. KeeneNew

Forwards

L. Hobin29 minE. Robinson28 minC. Walker22 minR. Dering14 minK. Gilles13 minB. Martin5 min

Centers

W. Celichowski21 minM. CaslaruNew

Austin Peay

Guards

Z. Collins30 minC. Love25 min · TRS. Hugie12 min · TRC. RyansNewP. SingletonNewT. ToddNew

Forwards

R. Marshall30 minD. BoldenNewA. DavisNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AF61.5 #362

APSU79.0 #79

Points per possession

AF0.91 #363

APSU1.13 #91

Pace (possessions)

AF67.4 #259

APSU70.1 #114

Shooting

Effective FG%

AF48.9 #292

APSU53.0 #105

3-point %

AF30.6 #332

APSU35.3 #99

3-point attempt rate

AF41.8 #139

APSU38.0 #215

Free throw rate

AF35.1 #174

APSU37.6 #110

Possessions

Turnover rate

AF21.9 #362

APSU15.4 #94

Offensive rebound rate

AF21.4 #360

APSU29.7 #214

Assists per game

AF12.2 #273

APSU15.3 #76

Defense

Points allowed

AF79.9 #316

APSU74.6 #179

Points allowed per possession

AF1.19 #352

APSU1.06 #119

Opponent effective FG%

AF56.4 #350

APSU52.2 #227

Opponent 3-point %

AF37.6 #352

APSU33.2 #137

Turnovers forced

AF15.1 #280

APSU17.9 #103

Defensive rebound rate

AF68.7 #215

APSU71.1 #100

Steals per game

AF5.6 #281

APSU8.4 #22

Blocks per game

AF2.4 #316

APSU2.2 #329

AF		APSU
Scoring
61.5 #362	Points per game	79.0 #79
0.91 #363	Points per possession	1.13 #91
67.4 #259	Pace (possessions)	70.1 #114
Shooting
48.9 #292	Effective FG%	53.0 #105
30.6 #332	3-point %	35.3 #99
41.8 #139	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #215
35.1 #174	Free throw rate	37.6 #110
Possessions
21.9 #362	Turnover rate	15.4 #94
21.4 #360	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #214
12.2 #273	Assists per game	15.3 #76
Defense
79.9 #316	Points allowed	74.6 #179
1.19 #352	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #119
56.4 #350	Opponent effective FG%	52.2 #227
37.6 #352	Opponent 3-point %	33.2 #137
15.1 #280	Turnovers forced	17.9 #103
68.7 #215	Defensive rebound rate	71.1 #100
5.6 #281	Steals per game	8.4 #22
2.4 #316	Blocks per game	2.2 #329

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Air Force

3-29 in 2025-26 overall · 0-21 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nevada45–80
L@ Nevada59–74
Lvs Grand Canyon60–86
L@ Wyoming62–66
Lvs San José St80–86

A week or more of rest.

Austin Peay

20-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Queens University Royals83–90
Wvs Stetson69–60
L@ Bellarmine97–111
Lvs C Arkansas88–93
W@ Jacksonville65–61

A week or more of rest.

Air Force Falcons at Austin Peay Governors

What could decide it: APSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Air Force

Austin Peay

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Air Force

Austin Peay