Colgate Raiders at Syracuse Orange: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 7:00 PM ETJMA Wireless Dome · at Syracuse

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Colgate and Syracuse
COLG	This season	SYR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SYR 86–66 · win probability SYR 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SYR has more of the edges

COLG 3, SYR 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SYRBig

SYR offense vs COLG defense

Offense 60th of 366 against a defense 214th, on the model’s ratings

SYRBig

COLG offense vs SYR defense

Offense 205th of 366 against a defense 67th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

COLG has played the 178th-hardest schedule, SYR the 67th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SYRSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: COLG 29.7, SYR 35.1. Allowed: COLG 33.8, SYR 32.6

COLGSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: COLG 59%, SYR 19%. Transfers in: COLG 0, SYR 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

COLGSmall

Three-pointers

COLG hits 35.6% and allows 34.8%; SYR hits 32.9% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 35.0% and 37.1% of their shots

COLGSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: COLG 26.6%, SYR 29.2%. Defensive: COLG 70.7%, SYR 66.4%

SYRSmall

Home court

SYR at home. This season: SYR 0-0 at home, COLG 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: COLG 53.3 and allows 52.2; SYR 52.6 and allows 50.3

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: COLG 14.7%, SYR 15.9%. Forced: COLG 15.2%, SYR 17.4%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: COLG plays 68.6 a game (202nd fastest), SYR 69.1 (173rd). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SYR -20.4	—
Total	—	151.8	—
Projected score	—	COLG 65.7 · SYR 86.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SYR -12.0	—
1H total	71.0	—
1H projected score	COLG 29.5 · SYR 41.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLG LLLWL	12-19	39%	7-9	—
SYR LLLLL	14-18	44%	8-10	—

Venue/role: COLG away; SYR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLG OUOOU	17-14	55%	16-15
SYR UOUUO	17-15	53%	15-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLG	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
SYR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Colgate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ IONA	L73–79LO

Syracuse

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs MERC	W76–62LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

COLG 2–2 SYRSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · SYR has won the last 2 meetings · COLG 4-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2024-25	COLG 72 @ SYR 74	SYR -11.5	COLG W
Nov 14, 2023-24	COLG 75 @ SYR 79	SYR -7.5	COLG W
Nov 15, 2022-23	COLG 80 @ SYR 68	SYR -7.5	COLG W
Nov 20, 2021-22	COLG 100 @ SYR 85	SYR -11	COLG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Colgate

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L L W L W L W W L L L W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

W L W W W W L W W L L W L L L L W L L L L W W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O O U O O O U U O O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MSU	L 69-80	+22.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 7	vsNE	L 65-68	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	vsDREX	W 90-83	-3.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 14	@ILL	L 65-84	+30.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 17	@SIE	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 20	@COR	L 94-95	+5.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 189
Nov 28	vsUALB	W 69-67	-7.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsFOR	W 72-62	-1.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 10	@SBU	L 77-85	+9.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 162
Dec 21	@FLA	L 60-90	+27.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 28	vsHARV	L 69-78	-3.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 31	@LAF	W 85-77	-6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@ARMY	W 76-69	-7.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 7	vsAMER	W 64-62	-5.5	L −3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsLEH	L 77-78	-11.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@L-MD	W 86-80	-8.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 17	vsBUCK	W 95-76	-8.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	@AMER	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsBU	W 80-79	-7.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsHC	W 79-74	-10.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 31	@LEH	L 76-77	-3.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 4	vsARMY	W 69-55	-10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Feb 7	@BUCK	W 78-59	-5.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 11	@HC	W 74-70	-8.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 14	vsNAVY	L 80-84	-1.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 16	@BU	L 58-85	-2.5	L −29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 21	vsL-MD	W 101-98	-8.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 199
Feb 25	vsLAF	L 69-70	-8.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	@NAVY	L 69-85	+6.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 154
Mar 5	vsL-MD	W 90-77	-6.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 167
Mar 8	@LEH	L 69-76	-2.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+11.5

L 65-68

−8.5

DREX

W 90-83

+3.5

ILL

L 65-84

+11.5

SIE

W 72-69

+9.5

COR

L 94-95

+4.5

UALB

W 69-67

−5.5

FOR

W 72-62

+8.5

SBU

L 77-85

+1.5

FLA

L 60-90

−2.5

HARV

L 69-78

−12.5

LAF

W 85-77

+1.5

ARMY

W 76-69

−0.5

AMER

W 64-62

−3.5

LEH

L 77-78

−12.5

L-MD

W 86-80

−2.5

BUCK

W 95-76

+10.5

AMER

L 66-70

−2.5

W 80-79

−6.5

W 79-74

−5.5

LEH

L 76-77

−4.5

ARMY

W 69-55

+3.5

BUCK

W 78-59

+13.5

W 74-70

−4.5

NAVY

L 80-84

−5.5

L 58-85

−29.5

L-MD

W 101-98

−5.5

LAF

L 69-70

−9.5

NAVY

L 69-85

−9.5

L-MD

W 90-77

+6.5

LEH

L 69-76

−9.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+4.5

L 65-68

−14.5

DREX

W 90-83

+29.5

ILL

L 65-84

−15.5

SIE

W 72-69

−5.5

COR

L 94-95

+27.5

UALB

W 69-67

−5.5

FOR

W 72-62

−8.5

SBU

L 77-85

+19.5

FLA

L 60-90

−6.5

HARV

L 69-78

+5.5

LAF

W 85-77

+15.5

ARMY

W 76-69

−2.5

AMER

W 64-62

−22.5

LEH

L 77-78

+12.5

L-MD

W 86-80

+15.5

BUCK

W 95-76

+31.5

AMER

L 66-70

−10.5

W 80-79

+11.5

W 79-74

+8.5

LEH

L 76-77

+6.5

ARMY

W 69-55

−26.5

BUCK

W 78-59

−4.5

W 74-70

+1.5

NAVY

L 80-84

+24.5

L 58-85

−2.5

L-MD

W 101-98

+48.5

LAF

L 69-70

−9.5

NAVY

L 69-85

+12.5

L-MD

W 90-77

+11.5

LEH

L 69-76

−1.5

over 17under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Syracuse

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W L L L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L W L L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U U O O U U O O O O U O O O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBING	W 85-47	-21.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsDSU	W 83-43	-26.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 15	vsDREX	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsMONM	W 78-73	-21.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 24	vsHOU	L 74-78	+14.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsKU	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsISU	L 64-95	+10.5	L −20.5	145.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsTENN	W 62-60	+7.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 11	vsJOES	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 13	vsHOF	L 69-70	-9.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 17	vsMERC	W 76-62	-24.5	L −10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsNE	W 91-83	-14.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	vsSTO	W 77-48	-22.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsCLEM	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 125
Jan 6	@GT	W 82-72	-2.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@PITT	W 83-72	+1.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 13	vsFSU	W 94-86	-4.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 180
Jan 17	@BC	L 73-81	-5.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 21	vsVT	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 24	vsMIA	L 76-85	+1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 161
Jan 27	@NCSU	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsND	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 2	@UNC	L 77-87	+11.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 164
Feb 7	@UVA	L 59-72	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsCAL	W 107-100	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 207
Feb 14	vsSMU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 16	@DUKE	L 64-101	+20.5	L −16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 21	vsUNC	L 64-77	-2.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Feb 28	@WAKE	L 83-88	+3.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 3	@LOU	L 62-77	+14.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Mar 7	vsPITT	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSMU	L 69-86	+3.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BING

W 85-47

+16.5

DSU

W 83-43

+13.5

DREX

W 80-50

+18.5

MONM

W 78-73

−16.5

HOU

L 74-78

+10.5

L 60-71

−6.5

ISU

L 64-95

−20.5

TENN

W 62-60

+9.5

JOES

W 71-63

−3.5

HOF

L 69-70

−10.5

MERC

W 76-62

−10.5

W 91-83

−6.5

STO

W 77-48

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−1.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+3.5

L 73-81

−13.5

L 74-76

−5.5

MIA

L 76-85

−7.5

NCSU

L 68-88

−9.5

W 86-72

+7.5

UNC

L 77-87

+1.5

UVA

L 59-72

+0.5

CAL

W 107-100

+0.5

SMU

W 79-78

+2.5

DUKE

L 64-101

−16.5

UNC

L 64-77

−15.5

WAKE

L 83-88

−1.5

LOU

L 62-77

−0.5

PITT

L 69-71

−7.5

SMU

L 69-86

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BING

W 85-47

−21.5

DSU

W 83-43

−31.5

DREX

W 80-50

−13.5

MONM

W 78-73

+5.5

HOU

L 74-78

+11.5

L 60-71

−13.5

ISU

L 64-95

+13.5

TENN

W 62-60

−25.5

JOES

W 71-63

−12.5

HOF

L 69-70

−0.5

MERC

W 76-62

+6.5

W 91-83

+33.5

STO

W 77-48

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−15.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+19.5

L 73-81

+12.5

L 74-76

−2.5

MIA

L 76-85

+11.5

NCSU

L 68-88

+4.5

W 86-72

+10.5

UNC

L 77-87

+5.5

UVA

L 59-72

−16.5

CAL

W 107-100

+58.5

SMU

W 79-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 64-101

+20.5

UNC

L 64-77

−13.5

WAKE

L 83-88

+18.5

LOU

L 62-77

−20.5

PITT

L 69-71

−1.5

SMU

L 69-86

+0.5

over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Syracuse has the better starters

Position by position: Colgate 0, Syracuse 3, even 2

ColgateBetterSyracuse

G J. Ahayere7.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 32

SYRBig

G G. Doty TR18 pts · 6.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 94

F A. Alekseyenko14.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 75

Even

G A. Tobiason TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 2 ast Score 82

F S. Wright12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 60

Even

G G. Dual TR8.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 66

F C. Wright1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

SYRBig

F F. Folefac TR11.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 73

F A. Odetoyinbo1.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 20

SYRBig

C L. Wilson TR10.4 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 75

ColgateBetterSyracuse

COLG offense205th of 366 · -6.3

SYRBig

SYR defense67th of 366 · +0.9

COLG defense214th of 366 · -5.5

SYRBig

SYR offense60th of 366 · +2.7

Backcourt-1.6 · 1 player

SYRBig

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 4 players

SYRBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-1.1 · 4 players

SYRBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCOLG betterSYR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Colgate

Guards

J. Ahayere25 minC. Pugh1 minJ. Niv1 minP. JonesNewB. ForrestNewI. SkinnNew

Forwards

A. Alekseyenko30 minS. Wright26 minC. Wright12 minA. Odetoyinbo11 minE. Brown7 minC. Brennan4 min

Syracuse

Guards

G. Doty37 min · TRA. Tobiason36 min · TRG. Dual27 min · TRK. Anthony19 minC. Russell2 minN. Lobdell1 min

Forwards

F. Folefac28 min · TRT. Goodrick23 min · TRS. White15 minM. MoranoNew

Centers

L. Wilson29 min · TRI. MartinezNewA. SibyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

COLG75.6 #154

SYR75.0 #163

Points per possession

COLG1.11 #121

SYR1.08 #174

Pace (possessions)

COLG68.6 #202

SYR69.1 #173

Shooting

Effective FG%

COLG53.3 #91

SYR52.6 #122

3-point %

COLG35.6 #81

SYR32.9 #239

3-point attempt rate

COLG35.0 #275

SYR37.1 #226

Free throw rate

COLG29.7 #316

SYR35.1 #171

Possessions

Turnover rate

COLG14.7 #50

SYR15.9 #134

Offensive rebound rate

COLG26.6 #309

SYR29.2 #228

Assists per game

COLG14.2 #130

SYR12.8 #225

Defense

Points allowed

COLG76.2 #222

SYR74.3 #163

Points allowed per possession

COLG1.11 #230

SYR1.07 #144

Opponent effective FG%

COLG52.2 #224

SYR50.3 #116

Opponent 3-point %

COLG34.8 #238

SYR34.1 #186

Turnovers forced

COLG15.2 #268

SYR17.4 #125

Defensive rebound rate

COLG70.7 #125

SYR66.4 #310

Steals per game

COLG6.1 #230

SYR6.2 #214

Blocks per game

COLG2.9 #249

SYR5.9 #4

COLG		SYR
Scoring
75.6 #154	Points per game	75.0 #163
1.11 #121	Points per possession	1.08 #174
68.6 #202	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #173
Shooting
53.3 #91	Effective FG%	52.6 #122
35.6 #81	3-point %	32.9 #239
35.0 #275	3-point attempt rate	37.1 #226
29.7 #316	Free throw rate	35.1 #171
Possessions
14.7 #50	Turnover rate	15.9 #134
26.6 #309	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #228
14.2 #130	Assists per game	12.8 #225
Defense
76.2 #222	Points allowed	74.3 #163
1.11 #230	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #144
52.2 #224	Opponent effective FG%	50.3 #116
34.8 #238	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #186
15.2 #268	Turnovers forced	17.4 #125
70.7 #125	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #310
6.1 #230	Steals per game	6.2 #214
2.9 #249	Blocks per game	5.9 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Colgate

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh69–76
Wvs Loyola MD90–77
L@ Navy69–85
Lvs Lafayette69–70
Wvs Loyola MD101–98

A week or more of rest.

Syracuse

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SMU69–86
Lvs Pitt69–71
L@ Louisville62–77
L@ Wake Forest83–88
Lvs North Carolina64–77

A week or more of rest.

Colgate Raiders at Syracuse Orange

What could decide it: SYR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Colgate

Syracuse

Syracuse has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Colgate

Syracuse