1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. HAMP @ WAKE
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Hampton Pirates at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

LJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest
#159HAMPHampton
@
#89WAKEWake Forest
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HAMPThis seasonWAKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WAKE 81–68 · win probability WAKE 88%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WAKE has more of the edges

HAMP 1, WAKE 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
HAMP has played the 216th-hardest schedule, WAKE the 64th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WAKEBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: HAMP 45.7 and allows 52.0; WAKE 52.7 and allows 51.8
HAMPBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HAMP 32.9%, WAKE 30.1%. Defensive: HAMP 70.0%, WAKE 67.0%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: HAMP plays 66.5 a game (295th fastest), WAKE 70.2 (112th). Faster games mean more points
WAKESmall
HAMP offense vs WAKE defense
Offense 186th of 366 against a defense 96th, on the model’s ratings
WAKESmall
WAKE offense vs HAMP defense
Offense 80th of 366 against a defense 153rd, on the model’s ratings
WAKESmall
Three-pointers
HAMP hits 28.8% and allows 32.1%; WAKE hits 34.1% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 37.0% and 43.6% of their shots
WAKESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HAMP 17.1%, WAKE 15.5%. Forced: HAMP 17.2%, WAKE 17.7%
WAKESmall
Home court
WAKE at home. This season: WAKE 0-0 at home, HAMP 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: HAMP 39.2, WAKE 35.2. Allowed: HAMP 46.5, WAKE 35.7
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HAMP 18%, WAKE 9%. Transfers in: HAMP 6, WAKE 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WAKE -13.2—
Total—148.6—
Projected score—HAMP 67.7 · WAKE 80.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWAKE -7.7—
1H total69.5—
1H projected scoreHAMP 30.9 · WAKE 38.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Hampton 2, Wake Forest 2, even 1
HamptonBetterWake Forest
G J. Mitchell TR14.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
WAKEBig
G K. Kennedy TR18.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.2 ast Score 91
G S. Hubbard TR16.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 70
Even
G J. Ray TR11.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 56
G A. Davis TR9.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
HAMPSmall
G J. McDowell TR3.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 40
F M. Frazier TR12 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
HAMPBig
F R. Nyeri TR8.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 34
F C. Robinson TR8.2 pts · 4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 25
WAKESmall
F X. Pintelon TR5.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 47
HamptonBetterWake Forest
HAMP offense186th of 366 · -5.7
WAKESmall
WAKE defense96th of 366 · -0.5
HAMP defense153rd of 366 · -3.4
WAKESmall
WAKE offense80th of 366 · +0.5
Backcourt+0.1 · 3 players
WAKESmall
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players
HAMPSmall
Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Bench-2.1 · 5 players
WAKESmall
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestHAMP betterWAKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Hampton
Guards
J. Mitchell33 min · TRS. Hubbard31 min · TRA. Davis24 min · TRE. Strothers19 minT. Jackson17 min · TRA. Haskins10 min
Forwards
M. Frazier29 min · TRC. Robinson26 min · TRP. Da CruzNewW. PrestonNewZ. IbekweNewS. TabeNew
Wake Forest
Guards
K. Kennedy37 min · TRJ. Ray29 min · TRJ. McDowell17 min · TRI. Carr13 minA. Beard2 minW. Underwood2 min
Forwards
R. Nyeri26 min · TRX. Pintelon18 min · TRV. Ricchiuti2 minJ. AbsonNewV. ChaudhriNewG. PlacideNew
Centers
A. Dorn9 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HAMPWAKE
Scoring
68.0 #312Points per game78.8 #83
1.02 #301Points per possession1.12 #94
66.5 #295Pace (possessions)70.2 #112
Shooting
45.7 #356Effective FG%52.7 #117
28.8 #3573-point %34.1 #166
37.0 #2293-point attempt rate43.6 #99
39.2 #73Free throw rate35.2 #170
Possessions
17.1 #205Turnover rate15.5 #107
32.9 #90Offensive rebound rate30.1 #196
11.2 #329Assists per game14.4 #123
Defense
72.1 #108Points allowed76.9 #239
1.08 #176Points allowed per possession1.10 #214
52.0 #212Opponent effective FG%51.8 #202
32.1 #65Opponent 3-point %32.9 #117
17.2 #137Turnovers forced17.7 #114
70.0 #165Defensive rebound rate67.0 #298
6.3 #207Steals per game7.7 #59
3.0 #232Blocks per game3.5 #136
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hampton

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Towson68–74
  • L@ William & Mary85–94
  • Wvs Northeastern76–65
  • Lvs Charleston71–85
  • L@ Stony Brook72–79

A week or more of rest.

Wake Forest

18-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St75–78
  • Wvs Navy82–72
  • Lvs Clemson62–71
  • Wvs Virginia Tech95–89
  • Wvs California80–73

A week or more of rest.