1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. FAIR @ PROV
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Fairfield Stags at Providence Friars

Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence
#239FAIRFairfield
@
#52PROVProvidence
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FAIRThis seasonPROV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PROV 88–66 · win probability PROV 97%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PROV has more of the edges

FAIR 3, PROV 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
FAIR has played the 359th-hardest schedule, PROV the 31st. A record against a soft schedule means less
PROVBig
FAIR offense vs PROV defense
Offense 282nd of 366 against a defense 81st, on the model’s ratings
PROVBig
PROV offense vs FAIR defense
Offense 35th of 366 against a defense 195th, on the model’s ratings
FAIRBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FAIR 15.4%, PROV 16.7%. Forced: FAIR 16.8%, PROV 13.1%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: FAIR plays 67.3 a game (263rd fastest), PROV 74.2 (10th). Faster games mean more points
PROVBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: FAIR 48.8 and allows 51.0; PROV 55.0 and allows 51.4
FAIRSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FAIR 35.8%, PROV 31.7%. Defensive: FAIR 70.9%, PROV 69.2%
PROVSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: FAIR 27.7, PROV 36.7. Allowed: FAIR 30.4, PROV 32.7
FAIRSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FAIR 53%, PROV 13%. Transfers in: FAIR 2, PROV 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
PROVSmall
Three-pointers
FAIR hits 33.2% and allows 34.3%; PROV hits 36.4% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 35.4% and 40.5% of their shots
PROVSmall
Home court
PROV at home. This season: PROV 0-0 at home, FAIR 0-0 away
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PROV -22.0—
Total—153.9—
Projected score—FAIR 66 · PROV 88

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPROV -12.9—
1H total72.0—
1H projected scoreFAIR 29.5 · PROV 42.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Providence has the better starters

Position by position: Fairfield 0, Providence 3, even 2
FairfieldBetterProvidence
G D. Wucherpfennig11.8 pts · 8.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 71
Even
G R. Sabol TR18.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
G T. Williams6.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19
PROVBig
G M. Mack TR13.6 pts · 3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 80
G E. Mejia4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 11
PROVBig
G D. Vanterpool TR15.2 pts · 6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
G H. Rawlins3.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 4
PROVBig
G M. Byrd TR10.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 90
F Q. Martin TR12.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
Even
G R. Mela9.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 81
FairfieldBetterProvidence
FAIR offense282nd of 366 · -8.7
PROVBig
PROV defense81st of 366 · +0.3
FAIR defense195th of 366 · -4.8
PROVBig
PROV offense35th of 366 · +5.2
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
PROVBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 5 players
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
PROVBig
Bench+4.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestFAIR betterPROV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Fairfield
Guards
D. Wucherpfennig32 minT. Williams20 minE. Mejia19 minH. Rawlins17 minN. Rodriguez7 minJ. Ganton2 min
Forwards
Q. Martin32 min · TRM. Radunovic9 min · TRI. Munkadi9 minP. SmithNewO. SackoNewB. JonesNew
Providence
Guards
R. Sabol37 min · TRM. Mack32 min · TRD. Vanterpool32 min · TRM. Byrd28 min · TRR. Mela26 minG. Hightower10 min · TR
Forwards
A. Page23 min · TRJ. Bannarbie16 min · TRJ. BardwellNewC. WaltersNewL. MarangonNew
Centers
S. Aletan26 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FAIRPROV
Scoring
72.9 #226Points per game85.3 #15
1.09 #166Points per possession1.15 #58
67.3 #263Pace (possessions)74.2 #10
Shooting
48.8 #294Effective FG%55.0 #37
33.2 #2163-point %36.4 #45
35.4 #2623-point attempt rate40.5 #157
27.7 #346Free throw rate36.7 #138
Possessions
15.4 #96Turnover rate16.7 #174
35.8 #29Offensive rebound rate31.7 #135
12.1 #277Assists per game14.0 #146
Defense
71.9 #104Points allowed84.0 #356
1.06 #118Points allowed per possession1.13 #292
51.0 #159Opponent effective FG%51.4 #179
34.3 #200Opponent 3-point %35.3 #265
16.8 #169Turnovers forced13.1 #352
70.9 #116Defensive rebound rate69.2 #195
6.5 #183Steals per game5.4 #313
3.5 #145Blocks per game3.9 #86
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fairfield

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena61–76
  • Wvs Saint Peter's74–55
  • Wvs Manhattan71–60
  • Lvs Mount St Marys47–69
  • Wvs Siena72–58

A week or more of rest.

Providence

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ St John's72–85
  • Wvs Butler91–81
  • L@ Georgetown79–80
  • Lvs Marquette56–78
  • W@ Creighton79–76

A week or more of rest.