Bryant Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 7:30 PM ETRupp Arena · at Kentucky

#19UKKentucky AP #23

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bryant and Kentucky
BRY	This season	UK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UK 93–58 · win probability UK 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

BRY 0, UK 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UKBig

BRY offense vs UK defense

Offense 306th of 366 against a defense 32nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BRY has played the 261st-hardest schedule, UK the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UKBig

UK offense vs BRY defense

Offense 13th of 366 against a defense 254th, on the model’s ratings

UKBig

Three-pointers

BRY hits 30.0% and allows 36.3%; UK hits 34.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 47.9% and 39.7% of their shots

UKBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BRY 46.9 and allows 52.7; UK 53.4 and allows 48.9

UKBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BRY 20.2%, UK 15.4%. Forced: BRY 14.6%, UK 15.5%

UKBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BRY 27.7%, UK 33.2%. Defensive: BRY 69.0%, UK 70.0%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: BRY plays 65.2 a game (338th fastest), UK 69.9 (123rd). Faster games mean more points

UKSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BRY 29.4, UK 37.4. Allowed: BRY 33.5, UK 36.4

UKSmall

Home court

UK at home. This season: UK 0-0 at home, BRY 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BRY 29%, UK 26%. Transfers in: BRY 3, UK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UK -34.6	—
Total	—	151.0	—
Projected score	—	BRY 58.2 · UK 92.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UK -20.5	—
1H total	70.6	—
1H projected score	BRY 25.1 · UK 45.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BRY LLWLL	11-18	38%	5-13	—
UK LWWWL	18-18	50%	9-9	—

Venue/role: BRY away; UK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BRY OUUOO	13-16	45%	7-22
UK OOUOU	18-18	50%	22-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BRY	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
UK	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bryant

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	@ FOR	L84–86LO

Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs LOU	L88–96LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bryant

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

11-18

38% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L L L W L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1838%

L L W L W W W W L W L L W L L W L L L W L W L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1645%

U U O U U U U O O U O U U U U O O U U O U O O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SIE	L 66-82	+13.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@GT	L 45-74	+15.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 12	vsDART	W 82-75	-1.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 16	@VAL	L 50-68	+6.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 118
Nov 19	@VT	L 61-78	+24.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 23	@CONN	L 49-72	+36.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 121
Nov 29	@HARV	L 53-56	+7.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 109
Dec 2	vsSTO	W 77-65	-6.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 142
Dec 5	@BRWN	L 56-75	+6.5	L −12.5	130.5	O 131
Dec 10	@IONA	L 63-69	+8.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 132
Dec 13	vsMRST	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	131.5	O 156
Dec 22	@HPU	L 47-93	+19.5	L −26.5	153.5	U 140
Jan 3	@ME	W 56-51	-1.5	W +3.5	125.5	U 107
Jan 8	vsUML	L 63-77	-2.5	L −16.5	143.5	U 140
Jan 10	@UALB	L 46-71	+3.5	L −21.5	136.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsUMBC	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 153
Jan 19	@NJIT	L 55-79	+1.5	L −22.5	132.5	O 134
Jan 24	vsUVM	L 52-62	+8.5	L −1.5	133.5	U 114
Jan 29	@BING	L 60-63	-2.5	L −5.5	130.5	U 123
Jan 31	vsUNH	W 92-84	-1.5	W +6.5	131.5	O 176
Feb 5	vsUALB	L 63-65	-1.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 128
Feb 7	vsME	W 73-67	-2.5	W +3.5	128.5	O 140
Feb 12	@UML	L 69-88	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 157
Feb 14	@UVM	L 63-90	+13.5	L −13.5	133.5	O 153
Feb 19	vsBING	L 67-79	-4.5	L −16.5	134.5	O 146
Feb 26	@UMBC	L 58-70	+11.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 128
Feb 28	vsNJIT	W 69-52	+1.5	W +18.5	138.5	U 121
Mar 3	@UNH	L 83-88	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 171
Mar 7	@UVM	L 57-77	+11.5	L −8.5	130.5	O 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 66-82

−2.5

L 45-74

−13.5

DART

W 82-75

+5.5

VAL

L 50-68

−11.5

L 61-78

+7.5

CONN

L 49-72

+13.5

HARV

L 53-56

+4.5

STO

W 77-65

+5.5

BRWN

L 56-75

−12.5

IONA

L 63-69

+2.5

MRST

L 74-82

−6.5

HPU

L 47-93

−26.5

W 56-51

+3.5

UML

L 63-77

−16.5

UALB

L 46-71

−21.5

UMBC

W 79-74

+6.5

NJIT

L 55-79

−22.5

UVM

L 52-62

−1.5

BING

L 60-63

−5.5

UNH

W 92-84

+6.5

UALB

L 63-65

−3.5

W 73-67

+3.5

UML

L 69-88

−14.5

UVM

L 63-90

−13.5

BING

L 67-79

−16.5

UMBC

L 58-70

−0.5

NJIT

W 69-52

+18.5

UNH

L 83-88

−2.5

UVM

L 57-77

−8.5

covered 11didn’t cover 18avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 66-82

−0.5

L 45-74

−19.5

DART

W 82-75

+5.5

VAL

L 50-68

−25.5

L 61-78

−12.5

CONN

L 49-72

−26.5

HARV

L 53-56

−28.5

STO

W 77-65

+7.5

BRWN

L 56-75

+0.5

IONA

L 63-69

−14.5

MRST

L 74-82

+24.5

HPU

L 47-93

−13.5

W 56-51

−18.5

UML

L 63-77

−3.5

UALB

L 46-71

−19.5

UMBC

W 79-74

+17.5

NJIT

L 55-79

+1.5

UVM

L 52-62

−19.5

BING

L 60-63

−7.5

UNH

W 92-84

+44.5

UALB

L 63-65

−5.5

W 73-67

+11.5

UML

L 69-88

+15.5

UVM

L 63-90

+19.5

BING

L 67-79

+11.5

UMBC

L 58-70

−10.5

NJIT

W 69-52

−17.5

UNH

L 83-88

+35.5

UVM

L 57-77

+3.5

over 13under 16avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kentucky

36 games played

Straight up

22-14

61% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-18

50% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1461%

W W L W L W W L L W W W W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

L W L W L W W L L L W W L L L W L W L L L W W W W L W W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1850%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O U O O U U O O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 26	vsTNTC	W 104-54	-37.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsUNC	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 5	vsGONZ	L 59-94	+5.5	L −29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 9	vsNCCU	W 103-67	-42.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 13	vsIU	W 72-60	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsSJU	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsBELL	W 99-85	-34.5	L −20.5	152.5	O 184
Jan 3	@ALA	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 163
Jan 7	vsMIZ	L 68-73	-12.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsMSST	W 92-68	-10.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 14	@LSU	W 75-74	-3.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	@TENN	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsTEX	W 85-80	-7.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsMISS	W 72-63	-11.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 27	@VAN	L 55-80	+5.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 135
Jan 31	@ARK	W 85-77	+6.5	W +14.5	159.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsOU	W 94-78	-8.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	vsTENN	W 74-71	-1.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 14	@FLA	L 83-92	+12.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsUGA	L 78-86	-6.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 21	@AUB	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 149
Feb 24	@SC	W 72-63	-7.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsVAN	W 91-77	-1.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 168
Mar 3	@TA&M	L 85-96	+1.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 181
Mar 7	vsFLA	L 77-84	+5.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 11	vsLSU	W 87-82	-8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsMIZ	W 78-72	-2.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsFLA	L 63-71	+10.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 20	vsSCU	W 89-84	-3.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 22	vsISU	L 63-82	+5.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+12.5

UNC

L 64-67

−10.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−29.5

NCCU

W 103-67

−6.5

W 72-60

+8.5

SJU

W 78-66

+10.5

BELL

W 99-85

−20.5

ALA

L 74-89

−9.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−17.5

MSST

W 92-68

+13.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+8.5

TEX

W 85-80

−2.5

MISS

W 72-63

−2.5

VAN

L 55-80

−19.5

ARK

W 85-77

+14.5

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

W 74-71

+1.5

FLA

L 83-92

+3.5

UGA

L 78-86

−14.5

AUB

L 74-75

+2.5

W 72-63

+1.5

VAN

W 91-77

+12.5

TA&M

L 85-96

−9.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

−3.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+3.5

FLA

L 63-71

+2.5

SCU

W 89-84

+1.5

ISU

L 63-82

−13.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+0.5

UNC

L 64-67

−32.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−6.5

NCCU

W 103-67

+21.5

W 72-60

−24.5

SJU

W 78-66

−10.5

BELL

W 99-85

+31.5

ALA

L 74-89

−10.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−9.5

MSST

W 92-68

+7.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+12.5

TEX

W 85-80

+12.5

MISS

W 72-63

−10.5

VAN

L 55-80

−20.5

ARK

W 85-77

+2.5

W 94-78

+19.5

TENN

W 74-71

−2.5

FLA

L 83-92

+20.5

UGA

L 78-86

+2.5

AUB

L 74-75

−4.5

W 72-63

−16.5

VAN

W 91-77

+10.5

TA&M

L 85-96

+18.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

+17.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+1.5

FLA

L 63-71

−27.5

SCU

W 89-84

+15.5

ISU

L 63-82

−1.5

over 18under 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: Bryant 0, Kentucky 2, even 3

BryantBetterKentucky

G T. Tabales9 pts · 2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 20

UKBig

G A. Wilkins TR18.2 pts · 2 reb · 4.7 ast Score 81

G F. Vassalluzzo0 pts · 0.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G Z. Diallo TR15.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96

F A. Pasha TR10.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 39

Even

G J. Morton TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 48

F K. Harvey10.9 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 64

UKSmall

F M. Momcilovic TR16.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 97

F E. Chatfield TR2.6 pts · 1 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. McBride TR15.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 87

BryantBetterKentucky

BRY offense306th of 366 · -9.5

UKBig

UK defense32nd of 366 · +3.5

BRY defense254th of 366 · -6.6

UKBig

UK offense13th of 366 · +9.5

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

UKBig

Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players

UKBig

Frontcourt+8.1 · 2 players

Bench-0.0 · 3 players

UKBig

Bench+5.1 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestBRY betterUK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bryant

Guards

T. Tabales28 minF. Vassalluzzo1 minJ. Sepe1 minM. DeOrsey1 minR. WoernerNew

Forwards

A. Pasha33 min · TRK. Harvey27 minE. Chatfield13 min · TRO. Nnani1 min · TRD. ThompsonNewC. LyonsNew

Kentucky

Guards

A. Wilkins30 min · TRZ. Diallo30 min · TRJ. Morton25 min · TRK. Williams19 minM. WilliamsNewZ. HawthorneNew

Forwards

M. Momcilovic30 min · TRJ. McBride27 min · TRT. Noah11 minR. PotterNewO. N'DiayeNewB. HawthorneNew

Centers

F. Kepnang23 min · TRM. Moreno23 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BRY63.0 #358

UK80.5 #55

Points per possession

BRY0.96 #351

UK1.15 #57

Pace (possessions)

BRY65.2 #338

UK69.9 #123

Shooting

Effective FG%

BRY46.9 #340

UK53.4 #87

3-point %

BRY30.0 #343

UK34.2 #158

3-point attempt rate

BRY47.9 #25

UK39.7 #180

Free throw rate

BRY29.4 #322

UK37.4 #119

Possessions

Turnover rate

BRY20.2 #351

UK15.4 #98

Offensive rebound rate

BRY27.7 #276

UK33.2 #84

Assists per game

BRY11.4 #314

UK15.9 #50

Defense

Points allowed

BRY73.3 #138

UK74.3 #167

Points allowed per possession

BRY1.13 #283

UK1.06 #115

Opponent effective FG%

BRY52.7 #257

UK48.9 #63

Opponent 3-point %

BRY36.3 #320

UK31.8 #55

Turnovers forced

BRY14.6 #313

UK15.5 #248

Defensive rebound rate

BRY69.0 #203

UK70.0 #158

Steals per game

BRY5.9 #250

UK7.0 #123

Blocks per game

BRY3.9 #88

UK4.6 #33

BRY		UK
Scoring
63.0 #358	Points per game	80.5 #55
0.96 #351	Points per possession	1.15 #57
65.2 #338	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #123
Shooting
46.9 #340	Effective FG%	53.4 #87
30.0 #343	3-point %	34.2 #158
47.9 #25	3-point attempt rate	39.7 #180
29.4 #322	Free throw rate	37.4 #119
Possessions
20.2 #351	Turnover rate	15.4 #98
27.7 #276	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #84
11.4 #314	Assists per game	15.9 #50
Defense
73.3 #138	Points allowed	74.3 #167
1.13 #283	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #115
52.7 #257	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #63
36.3 #320	Opponent 3-point %	31.8 #55
14.6 #313	Turnovers forced	15.5 #248
69.0 #203	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #158
5.9 #250	Steals per game	7.0 #123
3.9 #88	Blocks per game	4.6 #33

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bryant

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Vermont57–77
L@ New Hampshire83–88
Wvs NJIT69–52
L@ UMBC58–70
Lvs Binghamton67–79

A week or more of rest.

Kentucky

22-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State63–82
Wvs Santa Clara89–84
Lvs Florida63–71
Wvs Missouri78–72
Wvs LSU87–82

A week or more of rest.

Bryant Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bryant

Kentucky

Kentucky has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bryant

Kentucky