Jackson State Tigers at Texas Longhorns: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 8:00 PM ETMoody Center · at Texas

#11TEXTexas AP #7

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jackson St and Texas
JKST	This season	TEX
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TEX 97–60 · win probability TEX 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TEX has more of the edges

JKST 1, TEX 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TEXBig

TEX offense vs JKST defense

Offense 7th of 366 against a defense 325th, on the model’s ratings

TEXBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: JKST 29.7%, TEX 35.4%. Defensive: JKST 62.8%, TEX 73.1%

Context

Schedule so far

JKST has played the 239th-hardest schedule, TEX the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TEXBig

JKST offense vs TEX defense

Offense 229th of 366 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

TEXBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: JKST 45.7 and allows 53.0; TEX 54.1 and allows 50.8

JKSTBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: JKST 76%, TEX 14%. Transfers in: JKST 2, TEX 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

TEXSmall

Three-pointers

JKST hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; TEX hits 35.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 43.3% and 35.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: JKST plays 71.6 a game (50th fastest), TEX 68.7 (199th). Faster games mean more points

TEXSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: JKST 37.4, TEX 44.2. Allowed: JKST 41.9, TEX 39.6

TEXSmall

Home court

TEX at home. This season: TEX 0-0 at home, JKST 0-0 away

TEXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: JKST 19.4%, TEX 15.0%. Forced: JKST 16.5%, TEX 13.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TEX -37.6	—
Total	—	157.2	—
Projected score	—	JKST 59.8 · TEX 97.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TEX -22.3	—
1H total	73.4	—
1H projected score	JKST 25.6 · TEX 47.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JKST LWLWL	14-19	42%	6-13	—
TEX LWWWW	20-15	57%	8-9	—

Venue/role: JKST away; TEX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
JKST UOOUU	16-17	48%	12-21
TEX UUUUO	20-15	57%	20-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JKST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
TEX	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jackson St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ TLSA	L52–72LU

Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs MIA	L81–88LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jackson St

33 games played

Straight up

12-21

36% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2136%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W L W W L W L W W L W W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

O O U O O U U O U U O O O O U O U O U U U O O U U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 21	@ARK	L 61-115	+29.5	L −24.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 23	vsWIN	L 62-80	+10.5	L −7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 28	@UL	W 51-45	+5.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 2	@KENN	L 73-88	+15.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 10	@HOU	L 38-80	+40.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	@NU	L 53-93	+30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsHAMP	L 77-84	+8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 161
Dec 19	vsNORF	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 29	@TCU	L 64-115	+30.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsALCN	W 89-86	-5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@ALST	W 75-64	+7.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 12	@AAMU	L 91-100	+6.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 17	vsPV	W 82-78	-1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 160
Jan 19	vsTXSO	W 94-89	-2.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	@BCU	L 48-85	+8.5	L −28.5	156.5	U 133
Jan 26	@FAMU	W 66-65	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 131
Jan 31	vsGRAM	L 66-69	+2.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 135
Feb 2	vsSOU	L 91-96	+5.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 187
Feb 7	@MVSU	W 97-81	-8.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 178
Feb 9	@UAPB	L 63-84	+7.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 147
Feb 14	vsFAMU	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 16	vsBCU	W 91-86	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 177
Feb 21	@ALCN	L 65-83	-1.5	L −19.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 26	@PV	L 76-85	+3.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 161
Feb 28	@TXSO	L 57-82	+6.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsUAPB	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsMVSU	W 85-77	-11.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 10	vsGRAM	W 68-65	+7.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsFAMU	L 60-70	+6.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

ARK

L 61-115

−24.5

WIN

L 62-80

−7.5

W 51-45

+11.5

KENN

L 73-88

+0.5

HOU

L 38-80

−1.5

L 53-93

−9.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+1.5

NORF

L 72-82

−4.5

TCU

L 64-115

−20.5

ALCN

W 89-86

−2.5

ALST

W 75-64

+18.5

AAMU

L 91-100

−2.5

W 82-78

+2.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+2.5

BCU

L 48-85

−28.5

FAMU

W 66-65

+8.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−0.5

SOU

L 91-96

+0.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+7.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−13.5

FAMU

W 80-60

+22.5

BCU

W 91-86

+9.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−19.5

L 76-85

−5.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−18.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+4.5

MVSU

W 85-77

−3.5

GRAM

W 68-65

+10.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

ARK

L 61-115

+16.5

WIN

L 62-80

−21.5

W 51-45

−40.5

KENN

L 73-88

+3.5

HOU

L 38-80

−19.5

L 53-93

−0.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+25.5

NORF

L 72-82

+13.5

TCU

L 64-115

+35.5

ALCN

W 89-86

+29.5

ALST

W 75-64

−14.5

AAMU

L 91-100

+50.5

W 82-78

−0.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+29.5

BCU

L 48-85

−23.5

FAMU

W 66-65

−19.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−13.5

SOU

L 91-96

+34.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+34.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−8.5

FAMU

W 80-60

−4.5

BCU

W 91-86

+26.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−1.5

L 76-85

−0.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−13.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+5.5

MVSU

W 85-77

+17.5

GRAM

W 68-65

−6.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−11.5

over 16under 17avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas

35 games played

Straight up

20-15

57% wins

Against the spread

20-15

57% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-15

57% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1557%

L W W W W L W L W L W W L L W W L L W L W W W W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1557%

L W W L W L W L W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W W L L L W L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1557%

U O U U O O O O O U U O O O O U U O U O U O O O O O U U O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsDUKE	L 60-75	+10.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsLAF	W 97-60	-25.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 12	vsFDU	W 93-58	-31.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsKC	W 71-55	-31.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 18	vsRID	W 99-65	-30.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 24	vsASU	L 86-87	-6.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 173
Nov 26	vsNCSU	W 102-97	+1.5	W +6.5	161.5	O 199
Dec 3	vsUVA	L 69-88	-3.5	L −22.5	154.5	O 157
Dec 8	vsSOU	W 95-69	-22.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 164
Dec 12	@CONN	L 63-71	+11.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 134
Dec 16	vsLEM	W 95-53	-29.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 22	vsUMES	W 94-71	-33.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 165
Jan 3	vsMSST	L 98-101	-9.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 199
Jan 6	@TENN	L 71-85	+12.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 156
Jan 10	@ALA	W 92-88	+11.5	W +15.5	177.5	O 180
Jan 14	vsVAN	W 80-64	+3.5	W +19.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsTA&M	L 70-74	-4.5	L −8.5	166.5	U 144
Jan 21	@UK	L 80-85	+7.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsUGA	W 87-67	-3.5	W +16.5	168.5	U 154
Jan 28	@AUB	L 82-88	+6.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 170
Jan 31	@OU	W 79-69	-1.5	W +8.5	155.5	U 148
Feb 3	vsSC	W 84-75	-13.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsMISS	W 79-68	-9.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 14	@MIZ	W 85-68	+2.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 17	vsLSU	W 88-85	-10.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 173
Feb 21	@UGA	L 80-91	+2.5	L −8.5	162.5	O 171
Feb 25	vsFLA	L 71-84	+6.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 28	@TA&M	W 76-70	+2.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 146
Mar 4	@ARK	L 85-105	+6.5	L −13.5	163.5	O 190
Mar 7	vsOU	L 85-88	-6.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 173
Mar 11	vsMISS	L 66-76	-5.5	L −15.5	147.5	U 142
Mar 17	vsNCSU	W 68-66	+1.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 134
Mar 19	vsBYU	W 79-71	+2.5	W +10.5	156.5	U 150
Mar 21	vsGONZ	W 74-68	+5.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 142
Mar 26	vsPUR	L 77-79	+8.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−4.5

LAF

W 97-60

+11.5

FDU

W 93-58

+3.5

W 71-55

−15.5

RID

W 99-65

+3.5

ASU

L 86-87

−7.5

NCSU

W 102-97

+6.5

UVA

L 69-88

−22.5

SOU

W 95-69

+3.5

CONN

L 63-71

+3.5

LEM

W 95-53

+12.5

UMES

W 94-71

−10.5

MSST

L 98-101

−12.5

TENN

L 71-85

−1.5

ALA

W 92-88

+15.5

VAN

W 80-64

+19.5

TA&M

L 70-74

−8.5

L 80-85

+2.5

UGA

W 87-67

+16.5

AUB

L 82-88

+0.5

W 79-69

+8.5

W 84-75

−4.5

MISS

W 79-68

+1.5

MIZ

W 85-68

+19.5

LSU

W 88-85

−7.5

UGA

L 80-91

−8.5

FLA

L 71-84

−6.5

TA&M

W 76-70

+8.5

ARK

L 85-105

−13.5

L 85-88

−9.5

MISS

L 66-76

−15.5

NCSU

W 68-66

+3.5

BYU

W 79-71

+10.5

GONZ

W 74-68

+11.5

PUR

L 77-79

+6.5

covered 20didn’t cover 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−18.5

LAF

W 97-60

+3.5

FDU

W 93-58

−7.5

W 71-55

−33.5

RID

W 99-65

+20.5

ASU

L 86-87

+19.5

NCSU

W 102-97

+37.5

UVA

L 69-88

+2.5

SOU

W 95-69

+5.5

CONN

L 63-71

−11.5

LEM

W 95-53

−4.5

UMES

W 94-71

+26.5

MSST

L 98-101

+41.5

TENN

L 71-85

+2.5

ALA

W 92-88

+2.5

VAN

W 80-64

−19.5

TA&M

L 70-74

−22.5

L 80-85

+12.5

UGA

W 87-67

−14.5

AUB

L 82-88

+15.5

W 79-69

−7.5

W 84-75

+9.5

MISS

W 79-68

+1.5

MIZ

W 85-68

+2.5

LSU

W 88-85

+22.5

UGA

L 80-91

+8.5

FLA

L 71-84

−2.5

TA&M

W 76-70

−13.5

ARK

L 85-105

+26.5

L 85-88

+18.5

MISS

L 66-76

−5.5

NCSU

W 68-66

−23.5

BYU

W 79-71

−6.5

GONZ

W 74-68

−4.5

PUR

L 77-79

+9.5

over 20under 15avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Jackson St 0, Texas 3, even 2

Jackson StBetterTexas

G D. Ruffin23.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 98

Even

G I. Johnson TR16.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 3 ast Score 98

G D. McMillian11.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 37

TEXBig

G E. Freeman TR9.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85

G M. Williams5.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Lewis TR14 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 86

G T. Hoover5.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 23

TEXBig

F D. Punch TR14.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 96

G D. Williams2.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 5

TEXBig

C M. Vokietaitis15.5 pts · 7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 95

Jackson StBetterTexas

JKST offense229th of 366 · -7.0

TEXBig

TEX defense17th of 366 · +6.2

JKST defense325th of 366 · -8.4

TEXBig

TEX offense7th of 366 · +10.5

Backcourt-2.6 · 5 players

TEXBig

Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+9.8 · 2 players

Bench-5.7 · 5 players

TEXBig

Bench+0.9 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestJKST betterTEX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jackson St

Guards

D. Ruffin34 minD. McMillian30 minM. Williams20 minT. Hoover20 minD. Williams17 minC. Brunt11 min · TR

Forwards

K. Butler10 minD. Kolev8 minN. WilliamsNewT. LawsonNew

Centers

E. Wilson11 minJ. Williams8 min · TR

Texas

Guards

I. Johnson31 min · TRE. Freeman27 min · TRM. Lewis27 min · TRA. Evans14 min · TRA. McDermott3 minB. OgdenNew

Forwards

D. Punch30 min · TRJ. ClarkNewM. SpearsNewC. ElkinsNew

Centers

M. Vokietaitis26 minL. ObiorahNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

JKST70.2 #281

TEX81.7 #34

Points per possession

JKST0.98 #341

TEX1.19 #22

Pace (possessions)

JKST71.6 #50

TEX68.7 #199

Shooting

Effective FG%

JKST45.7 #354

TEX54.1 #65

3-point %

JKST31.4 #311

TEX35.1 #107

3-point attempt rate

JKST43.3 #105

TEX35.8 #254

Free throw rate

JKST37.4 #117

TEX44.2 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

JKST19.4 #337

TEX15.0 #68

Offensive rebound rate

JKST29.7 #215

TEX35.4 #35

Assists per game

JKST10.4 #352

TEX12.1 #278

Defense

Points allowed

JKST83.8 #354

TEX76.1 #220

Points allowed per possession

JKST1.17 #344

TEX1.11 #235

Opponent effective FG%

JKST53.0 #267

TEX50.8 #144

Opponent 3-point %

JKST34.8 #236

TEX34.7 #230

Turnovers forced

JKST16.5 #189

TEX13.0 #356

Defensive rebound rate

JKST62.8 #359

TEX73.1 #35

Steals per game

JKST6.3 #205

TEX5.5 #298

Blocks per game

JKST3.0 #226

TEX2.9 #239

JKST		TEX
Scoring
70.2 #281	Points per game	81.7 #34
0.98 #341	Points per possession	1.19 #22
71.6 #50	Pace (possessions)	68.7 #199
Shooting
45.7 #354	Effective FG%	54.1 #65
31.4 #311	3-point %	35.1 #107
43.3 #105	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #254
37.4 #117	Free throw rate	44.2 #7
Possessions
19.4 #337	Turnover rate	15.0 #68
29.7 #215	Offensive rebound rate	35.4 #35
10.4 #352	Assists per game	12.1 #278
Defense
83.8 #354	Points allowed	76.1 #220
1.17 #344	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #235
53.0 #267	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #144
34.8 #236	Opponent 3-point %	34.7 #230
16.5 #189	Turnovers forced	13.0 #356
62.8 #359	Defensive rebound rate	73.1 #35
6.3 #205	Steals per game	5.5 #298
3.0 #226	Blocks per game	2.9 #239

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jackson St

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Florida A&M60–70
Wvs Grambling68–65
Wvs Miss Valley St85–77
Wvs AR-Pine Bluff81–78
L@ Texas Southern57–82

A week or more of rest.

Texas

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue77–79
Wvs Gonzaga74–68
Wvs BYU79–71
Wvs NC State68–66
Lvs Ole Miss66–76

A week or more of rest.

Jackson State Tigers at Texas Longhorns

What could decide it: TEX has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Jackson St

Texas

Texas has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jackson St

Texas