1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. GB @ BRAD
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Green Bay Phoenix at Bradley Braves

Carver Arena · at Bradley
#225GBGreen Bay
@
#167BRADBradley
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GBThis seasonBRAD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BRAD 77–72 · win probability BRAD 68%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BRAD has more of the edges

GB 3, BRAD 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BRADBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GB 15.9%, BRAD 13.9%. Forced: GB 13.2%, BRAD 18.9%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: GB plays 65.2 a game (339th fastest), BRAD 69.9 (125th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
GB has played the 255th-hardest schedule, BRAD the 155th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GBSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GB 41.6, BRAD 35.9. Allowed: GB 37.4, BRAD 38.2
BRADSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GB 25.1%, BRAD 27.4%. Defensive: GB 70.4%, BRAD 72.2%
GBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GB 54.9 and allows 53.6; BRAD 51.1 and allows 52.8
BRADSmall
BRAD offense vs GB defense
Offense 175th of 366 against a defense 227th, on the model’s ratings
BRADSmall
Home court
BRAD at home. This season: BRAD 0-0 at home, GB 0-0 away
GBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GB 40%, BRAD 16%. Transfers in: GB 3, BRAD 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
GB offense vs BRAD defense
Offense 219th of 366 against a defense 185th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
GB hits 36.4% and allows 36.3%; BRAD hits 36.1% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 37.3% and 40.5% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BRAD -5.3—
Total—148.9—
Projected score—GB 71.8 · BRAD 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBRAD -3.0—
1H total69.6—
1H projected scoreGB 33.3 · BRAD 36.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Green Bay has the better starters

Position by position: Green Bay 1, Bradley 0, even 4
Green BayBetterBradley
G O. Lovejoy TR16 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 85
GBBig
G T. Payton TR9.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 15
G L. Thomas4.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31
Even
G T. van der Knaap6.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 30
G M. Wrecke2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 8
No call
G D. Richardson2.2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
F M. Hall13.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 49
Even
F X. Alarie TR10.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 50
F A. Hadaway TR14.5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 71
No call
F J. Ibukunoluwa TR2.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
Green BayBetterBradley
GB offense219th of 366 · -6.7
Even
BRAD defense185th of 366 · -4.3
GB defense227th of 366 · -6.0
Even
BRAD offense175th of 366 · -5.4
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
GBBig
Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.7 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
Bench-3.9 · 4 players
BRADBig
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestGB betterBRAD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Green Bay
Guards
O. Lovejoy31 min · TRL. Thomas12 minM. Wrecke11 minK. Van Kauwenberg10 minB. Fitzgerald1 minS. ErhartNew
Forwards
M. Hall35 minA. Hadaway33 min · TRI. Sutherland10 min · TRH. GruetzmacherNewT. ColnaricNew
Centers
M. Cicic11 min
Bradley
Guards
T. Payton34 min · TRT. van der Knaap23 minD. Richardson7 minG. Rugaard1 minK. GrillNewG. GerganovNew
Forwards
X. Alarie28 min · TRJ. Ibukunoluwa6 min · TRB. ThornbrueNew
Centers
G. GuimaresNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GBBRAD
Scoring
73.9 #201Points per game77.0 #117
1.13 #83Points per possession1.10 #129
65.2 #339Pace (possessions)69.9 #125
Shooting
54.9 #41Effective FG%51.1 #189
36.4 #423-point %36.1 #53
37.3 #2243-point attempt rate40.5 #161
41.6 #36Free throw rate35.9 #156
Possessions
15.9 #133Turnover rate13.9 #19
25.1 #339Offensive rebound rate27.4 #285
13.7 #172Assists per game13.3 #191
Defense
75.9 #215Points allowed74.2 #162
1.17 #338Points allowed per possession1.06 #109
53.6 #287Opponent effective FG%52.8 #259
36.3 #316Opponent 3-point %36.6 #334
13.2 #350Turnovers forced18.9 #53
70.4 #140Defensive rebound rate72.2 #62
4.2 #361Steals per game7.5 #86
2.7 #282Blocks per game3.2 #192
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Green Bay

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky76–96
  • Wvs Purdue FW64–56
  • Wvs Youngstown St85–63
  • L@ Detroit Mercy70–74
  • W@ Oakland73–68

A week or more of rest.

Bradley

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton66–80
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–73
  • Wvs Valparaiso90–84
  • Wvs Murray St87–78
  • L@ UIC86–93

A week or more of rest.