Milwaukee Panthers at South Dakota State Jackrabbits: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 8:00 PM ETFirst Bank & Trust Arena · at S Dakota St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Milwaukee and S Dakota St
MILW	This season	SDST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDST 78–73 · win probability SDST 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDST has more of the edges

MILW 1, SDST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SDSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5; SDST 52.0 and allows 51.8

SDSTBig

Three-pointers

MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%; SDST hits 34.0% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 38.1% and 38.8% of their shots

SDSTBig

SDST offense vs MILW defense

Offense 185th of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MILW has played the 191st-hardest schedule, SDST the 271st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILWSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MILW 15.3%, SDST 16.2%. Forced: MILW 15.8%, SDST 14.5%

SDSTSmall

Home court

SDST at home. This season: SDST 0-0 at home, MILW 0-0 away

Even

MILW offense vs SDST defense

Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 221st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MILW plays 69.1 a game (174th fastest), SDST 68.2 (220th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MILW 40%, SDST 51%. Transfers in: MILW 3, SDST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MILW 32.1, SDST 29.7. Allowed: MILW 35.9, SDST 34.5

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MILW 33.0%, SDST 30.3%. Defensive: MILW 70.8%, SDST 74.9%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SDST -5.4	—
Total	—	151.4	—
Projected score	—	MILW 73 · SDST 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDST -3.1	—
1H total	70.8	—
1H projected score	MILW 33.9 · SDST 36.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MILW WLLWL	11-20	35%	5-12	—
SDST LLWLL	12-17	41%	4-6	—

Venue/role: MILW away; SDST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MILW OOUUU	14-17	45%	11-20
SDST UOUUU	14-15	48%	11-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILW	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
SDST	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Milwaukee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs UIC	L69–80LO
Dec 15	@ LR	W92–72WO

S Dakota St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs IDHO	L81–84LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MILW 1–0 SDSTMILW leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MILW 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 19, 2025-26	SDST 87 @ MILW 88	MILW +1.5	MILW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Milwaukee

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O U O U O O U U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 1	@WRST	L 70-76	+3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 5	@GB	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsNKU	L 67-85	-1.5	L −19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	vsIUIN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsOAK	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@PFW	L 82-100	+3.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 182
Jan 22	@RMU	L 76-88	+4.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	@YSU	W 65-64	+6.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsWRST	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	vsCLE	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsDETM	L 63-76	-6.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 139
Feb 7	@NKU	L 62-67	+6.5	W +1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 10	@IUIN	W 92-88	-2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 15	vsGB	W 75-72	-2.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@DETM	L 86-91	-1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 22	@OAK	L 70-81	+5.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	vsYSU	W 78-65	+1.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 4	@DETM	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

WRST

L 70-76

−2.5

L 76-79

−6.5

NKU

L 67-85

−19.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+3.5

OAK

L 60-73

−10.5

PFW

L 82-100

−14.5

RMU

L 76-88

−7.5

YSU

W 65-64

+7.5

WRST

L 69-76

−4.5

CLE

L 88-90

−11.5

DETM

L 63-76

−19.5

NKU

L 62-67

+1.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+1.5

W 75-72

+0.5

DETM

L 86-91

−6.5

OAK

L 70-81

−5.5

YSU

W 78-65

+14.5

DETM

L 63-84

−19.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

WRST

L 70-76

−1.5

L 76-79

+10.5

NKU

L 67-85

−5.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+12.5

OAK

L 60-73

−33.5

PFW

L 82-100

+33.5

RMU

L 76-88

+11.5

YSU

W 65-64

−22.5

WRST

L 69-76

−6.5

CLE

L 88-90

+17.5

DETM

L 63-76

−16.5

NKU

L 62-67

−27.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+21.5

W 75-72

+1.5

DETM

L 86-91

+23.5

OAK

L 70-81

−8.5

YSU

W 78-65

−4.5

DETM

L 63-84

−4.5

over 14under 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

S Dakota St

29 games played

Straight up

11-18

38% wins

Against the spread

12-17

41% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1838%

W L L W L L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1741%

W W W W L L W L L L L W W L L L W W L W L L L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U U O O U U U O U O O O O O O U O U O O U U U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRMK	W 75-66	-6.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 9	@UNI	L 58-65	+10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 12	@ORE	L 69-83	+16.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsGAST	W 105-58	-12.5	W +34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsUVU	L 52-75	+1.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsUCI	L 52-64	+2.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 116
Dec 3	@NAU	W 75-62	-2.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsIDHO	L 81-84	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 165
Dec 9	@BALL	W 68-64	-5.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 132
Dec 15	vsWYO	L 72-87	+3.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 19	@MILW	L 87-88	-1.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 29	@ARIZ	L 71-99	+31.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 170
Jan 1	vsOMA	W 84-69	-9.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 3	@UND	L 87-90	-7.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 177
Jan 8	vsDEN	W 87-79	-8.5	L −0.5	162.5	O 166
Jan 14	@NDSU	L 65-76	+5.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsKC	W 90-62	-13.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 22	@STMN	L 69-74	+6.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 28	@OMA	L 71-80	-1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 151
Jan 31	vsORU	W 95-72	-13.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 167
Feb 4	vsSTMN	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsSDAK	L 67-68	-11.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 135
Feb 12	@DEN	L 61-79	-2.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 140
Feb 14	@ORU	W 87-69	-5.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsNDSU	L 66-74	+1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 21	vsUND	W 91-83	-9.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 174
Feb 26	@KC	W 73-59	-12.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	@SDAK	L 70-75	-3.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 5	vsSTMN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

+2.5

UNI

L 58-65

+3.5

ORE

L 69-83

+2.5

GAST

W 105-58

+34.5

UVU

L 52-75

−21.5

UCI

L 52-64

−9.5

NAU

W 75-62

+10.5

IDHO

L 81-84

−8.5

BALL

W 68-64

−1.5

WYO

L 72-87

−11.5

MILW

L 87-88

−2.5

ARIZ

L 71-99

+3.5

OMA

W 84-69

+5.5

UND

L 87-90

−10.5

DEN

W 87-79

−0.5

NDSU

L 65-76

−5.5

W 90-62

+14.5

STMN

L 69-74

+1.5

OMA

L 71-80

−10.5

ORU

W 95-72

+9.5

STMN

L 62-77

−16.5

SDAK

L 67-68

−12.5

DEN

L 61-79

−20.5

ORU

W 87-69

+12.5

NDSU

L 66-74

−6.5

UND

W 91-83

−1.5

W 73-59

+1.5

SDAK

L 70-75

−8.5

STMN

L 67-80

−8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 17avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

−2.5

UNI

L 58-65

−27.5

ORE

L 69-83

+6.5

GAST

W 105-58

+19.5

UVU

L 52-75

−24.5

UCI

L 52-64

−28.5

NAU

W 75-62

−11.5

IDHO

L 81-84

+17.5

BALL

W 68-64

−10.5

WYO

L 72-87

+9.5

MILW

L 87-88

+23.5

ARIZ

L 71-99

+10.5

OMA

W 84-69

+0.5

UND

L 87-90

+24.5

DEN

W 87-79

+3.5

NDSU

L 65-76

−10.5

W 90-62

+0.5

STMN

L 69-74

−12.5

OMA

L 71-80

+0.5

ORU

W 95-72

+16.5

STMN

L 62-77

−18.5

SDAK

L 67-68

−24.5

DEN

L 61-79

−20.5

ORU

W 87-69

+8.5

NDSU

L 66-74

−6.5

UND

W 91-83

+22.5

W 73-59

−20.5

SDAK

L 70-75

−6.5

STMN

L 67-80

−3.5

over 14under 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Milwaukee has the better starters

Position by position: Milwaukee 2, S Dakota St 1, even 2

MilwaukeeBetterS Dakota St

G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14

SDSTBig

G J. Sayler14.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 54

G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

Even

G K. Garry10.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 49

F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78

MILWBig

G E. Ryans TR7.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 12

F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

MILWSmall

F M. Thompson TR10.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 38

F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

C A. Squires4.4 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 29

MilwaukeeBetterS Dakota St

MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5

Even

SDST defense221st of 366 · -5.7

MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6

SDSTSmall

SDST offense185th of 366 · -5.7

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

MILWSmall

Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players

MILWBig

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

MILWSmall

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestMILW betterSDST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Milwaukee

Guards

I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew

Forwards

D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew

S Dakota St

Guards

J. Sayler33 minK. Garry30 minE. Ryans27 min · TRT. Buchanan13 minJ. Rogers9 minJ. Cascio Jensen2 min

Forwards

M. Thompson29 min · TRJ. Mekonnen4 min · TRJ. Van KalsbeekNewD. KernNewY. YatabareNewB. EllweinNew

Centers

A. Squires14 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MILW74.7 #173

SDST74.4 #182

Points per possession

MILW1.09 #172

SDST1.09 #150

Pace (possessions)

MILW69.1 #174

SDST68.2 #220

Shooting

Effective FG%

MILW49.9 #242

SDST52.0 #143

3-point %

MILW32.3 #266

SDST34.0 #174

3-point attempt rate

MILW38.1 #212

SDST38.8 #193

Free throw rate

MILW32.1 #256

SDST29.7 #317

Possessions

Turnover rate

MILW15.3 #85

SDST16.2 #150

Offensive rebound rate

MILW33.0 #88

SDST30.3 #186

Assists per game

MILW12.9 #220

SDST13.8 #160

Defense

Points allowed

MILW79.9 #317

SDST74.5 #177

Points allowed per possession

MILW1.15 #328

SDST1.09 #198

Opponent effective FG%

MILW55.5 #340

SDST51.8 #204

Opponent 3-point %

MILW36.5 #329

SDST34.1 #191

Turnovers forced

MILW15.8 #232

SDST14.5 #323

Defensive rebound rate

MILW70.8 #121

SDST74.9 #9

Steals per game

MILW6.5 #176

SDST5.5 #291

Blocks per game

MILW3.0 #230

SDST2.2 #336

MILW		SDST
Scoring
74.7 #173	Points per game	74.4 #182
1.09 #172	Points per possession	1.09 #150
69.1 #174	Pace (possessions)	68.2 #220
Shooting
49.9 #242	Effective FG%	52.0 #143
32.3 #266	3-point %	34.0 #174
38.1 #212	3-point attempt rate	38.8 #193
32.1 #256	Free throw rate	29.7 #317
Possessions
15.3 #85	Turnover rate	16.2 #150
33.0 #88	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #186
12.9 #220	Assists per game	13.8 #160
Defense
79.9 #317	Points allowed	74.5 #177
1.15 #328	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #198
55.5 #340	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #204
36.5 #329	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #191
15.8 #232	Turnovers forced	14.5 #323
70.8 #121	Defensive rebound rate	74.9 #9
6.5 #176	Steals per game	5.5 #291
3.0 #230	Blocks per game	2.2 #336

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
Wvs Youngstown St78–65
L@ Oakland70–81
L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.

S Dakota St

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St Thomas67–80
L@ South Dakota70–75
W@ Kansas City73–59
Wvs North Dakota91–83
Lvs N Dakota St66–74

A week or more of rest.

Milwaukee Panthers at South Dakota State Jackrabbits

What could decide it: SDST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Milwaukee

S Dakota St

Milwaukee has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Milwaukee

S Dakota St