Jackson State Tigers at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 15, 12:00 AM ETReynolds Center · at Tulsa

#108TLSATulsa

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jackson St and Tulsa
JKST	This season	TLSA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TLSA 87–68 · win probability TLSA 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TLSA has more of the edges

JKST 1, TLSA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TLSABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: JKST 45.7 and allows 53.0; TLSA 55.4 and allows 49.5

TLSABig

Three-pointers

JKST hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; TLSA hits 38.5% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 43.3% and 46.7% of their shots

TLSABig

TLSA offense vs JKST defense

Offense 99th of 366 against a defense 325th, on the model’s ratings

TLSABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: JKST 29.7%, TLSA 32.8%. Defensive: JKST 62.8%, TLSA 71.0%

TLSABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: JKST 37.4, TLSA 41.4. Allowed: JKST 41.9, TLSA 32.0

Context

Schedule so far

JKST has played the 239th-hardest schedule, TLSA the 111th. A record against a soft schedule means less

JKSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: JKST 76%, TLSA 18%. Transfers in: JKST 2, TLSA 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

TLSASmall

JKST offense vs TLSA defense

Offense 229th of 366 against a defense 133rd, on the model’s ratings

TLSASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: JKST 19.4%, TLSA 15.6%. Forced: JKST 16.5%, TLSA 15.4%

TLSASmall

Home court

TLSA at home. This season: TLSA 0-0 at home, JKST 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: JKST plays 71.6 a game (50th fastest), TLSA 70.1 (115th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TLSA -18.4	—
Total	—	154.9	—
Projected score	—	JKST 68.3 · TLSA 86.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TLSA -10.8	—
1H total	72.4	—
1H projected score	JKST 30.8 · TLSA 41.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JKST LWLWL	14-19	42%	6-13	—
TLSA LWLWL	19-17	53%	9-7	—

Venue/role: JKST away; TLSA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
JKST UOOUU	16-17	48%	12-21
TLSA OUOUO	24-12	67%	28-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JKST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
TLSA	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jackson St

No more games listed yet.

Tulsa

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

JKST 0–2 TLSATLSA leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · TLSA has won the last 2 meetings · JKST 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2023-24	JKST 52 @ TLSA 72	TLSA -10.5	TLSA W
Nov 12, 2022-23	JKST 79 @ TLSA 85	TLSA -12	JKST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jackson St

33 games played

Straight up

12-21

36% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2136%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W L W W L W L W W L W W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

O O U O O U U O U U O O O O U O U O U U U O O U U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 21	@ARK	L 61-115	+29.5	L −24.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 23	vsWIN	L 62-80	+10.5	L −7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 28	@UL	W 51-45	+5.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 2	@KENN	L 73-88	+15.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 10	@HOU	L 38-80	+40.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	@NU	L 53-93	+30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsHAMP	L 77-84	+8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 161
Dec 19	vsNORF	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 29	@TCU	L 64-115	+30.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsALCN	W 89-86	-5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@ALST	W 75-64	+7.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 12	@AAMU	L 91-100	+6.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 17	vsPV	W 82-78	-1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 160
Jan 19	vsTXSO	W 94-89	-2.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	@BCU	L 48-85	+8.5	L −28.5	156.5	U 133
Jan 26	@FAMU	W 66-65	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 131
Jan 31	vsGRAM	L 66-69	+2.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 135
Feb 2	vsSOU	L 91-96	+5.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 187
Feb 7	@MVSU	W 97-81	-8.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 178
Feb 9	@UAPB	L 63-84	+7.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 147
Feb 14	vsFAMU	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 16	vsBCU	W 91-86	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 177
Feb 21	@ALCN	L 65-83	-1.5	L −19.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 26	@PV	L 76-85	+3.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 161
Feb 28	@TXSO	L 57-82	+6.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsUAPB	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsMVSU	W 85-77	-11.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 10	vsGRAM	W 68-65	+7.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsFAMU	L 60-70	+6.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

ARK

L 61-115

−24.5

WIN

L 62-80

−7.5

W 51-45

+11.5

KENN

L 73-88

+0.5

HOU

L 38-80

−1.5

L 53-93

−9.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+1.5

NORF

L 72-82

−4.5

TCU

L 64-115

−20.5

ALCN

W 89-86

−2.5

ALST

W 75-64

+18.5

AAMU

L 91-100

−2.5

W 82-78

+2.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+2.5

BCU

L 48-85

−28.5

FAMU

W 66-65

+8.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−0.5

SOU

L 91-96

+0.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+7.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−13.5

FAMU

W 80-60

+22.5

BCU

W 91-86

+9.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−19.5

L 76-85

−5.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−18.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+4.5

MVSU

W 85-77

−3.5

GRAM

W 68-65

+10.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

ARK

L 61-115

+16.5

WIN

L 62-80

−21.5

W 51-45

−40.5

KENN

L 73-88

+3.5

HOU

L 38-80

−19.5

L 53-93

−0.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+25.5

NORF

L 72-82

+13.5

TCU

L 64-115

+35.5

ALCN

W 89-86

+29.5

ALST

W 75-64

−14.5

AAMU

L 91-100

+50.5

W 82-78

−0.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+29.5

BCU

L 48-85

−23.5

FAMU

W 66-65

−19.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−13.5

SOU

L 91-96

+34.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+34.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−8.5

FAMU

W 80-60

−4.5

BCU

W 91-86

+26.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−1.5

L 76-85

−0.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−13.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+5.5

MVSU

W 85-77

+17.5

GRAM

W 68-65

−6.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−11.5

over 16under 17avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tulsa

36 games played

Straight up

28-8

78% wins

Against the spread

19-17

53% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

24-12

67% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-878%

W W L W W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W W L L L W W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1753%

W L W W W W W W W L L W L L W W W L W W L L L L L W W W L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

24-1267%

U O O O U U O O O O O U O O O O U O O O U U U O O O U O O O U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsURI	W 82-65	+3.5	W +20.5	153.5	U 147
Nov 12	@ORU	W 88-87	-5.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@KSU	L 83-84	+12.5	W +11.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsAPSU	W 84-75	-8.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsSJSU	W 81-51	-5.5	W +24.5	149.5	U 132
Nov 26	vsUNI	W 63-60	+2.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsMOST	W 98-74	-7.5	W +16.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 10	vsUAPB	W 117-84	-25.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 201
Dec 13	vsNMSU	W 83-70	-4.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 153
Dec 19	@WKU	W 82-81	-2.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsDEN	W 90-85	-16.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 175
Dec 31	vsRICE	W 97-48	-12.5	W +36.5	152.5	U 145
Jan 4	@UNT	L 67-72	-2.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 10	vsUSF	L 78-93	-1.5	L −16.5	163.5	O 171
Jan 14	@CLT	W 86-74	-3.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 18	@UAB	W 99-77	+1.5	W +23.5	159.5	O 176
Jan 21	vsMEM	W 83-66	-6.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 149
Jan 24	@RICE	W 87-81	-8.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 168
Jan 28	vsUNT	W 82-66	-8.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 148
Feb 1	vsWICH	W 93-83	-5.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 176
Feb 4	@FAU	W 78-76	-3.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 154
Feb 8	@USF	L 74-80	+4.5	L −1.5	170.5	U 154
Feb 11	vsUAB	L 63-68	-10.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 131
Feb 14	@WICH	L 77-81	+1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 158
Feb 18	vsCLT	W 79-74	-12.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 153
Feb 22	vsUTSA	W 100-74	-21.5	W +4.5	159.5	O 174
Feb 25	@TULN	W 90-56	-5.5	W +28.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 5	@ECU	W 93-66	-8.5	W +18.5	156.5	O 159
Mar 8	vsTEM	W 78-76	-11.5	L −9.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 13	vsUNT	W 90-84	-7.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 174
Mar 14	vsWICH	L 68-81	-1.5	L −14.5	152.5	U 149
Mar 17	vsSFA	W 89-84	-5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 173
Mar 22	vsUNLV	W 77-66	-4.5	W +6.5	161.5	U 143
Mar 24	vsWICH	W 83-79	-4.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 162
Apr 2	vsUNM	W 74-69	+2.5	W +7.5	161.5	U 143
Apr 5	vsAUB	L 86-92	+5.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 178

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

URI

W 82-65

+20.5

ORU

W 88-87

−4.5

KSU

L 83-84

+11.5

APSU

W 84-75

+0.5

SJSU

W 81-51

+24.5

UNI

W 63-60

+5.5

MOST

W 98-74

+16.5

UAPB

W 117-84

+7.5

NMSU

W 83-70

+8.5

WKU

W 82-81

−1.5

DEN

W 90-85

−11.5

RICE

W 97-48

+36.5

UNT

L 67-72

−7.5

USF

L 78-93

−16.5

CLT

W 86-74

+8.5

UAB

W 99-77

+23.5

MEM

W 83-66

+10.5

RICE

W 87-81

−2.5

UNT

W 82-66

+7.5

WICH

W 93-83

+4.5

FAU

W 78-76

−1.5

USF

L 74-80

−1.5

UAB

L 63-68

−15.5

WICH

L 77-81

−2.5

CLT

W 79-74

−7.5

UTSA

W 100-74

+4.5

TULN

W 90-56

+28.5

ECU

W 93-66

+18.5

TEM

W 78-76

−9.5

UNT

W 90-84

−1.5

WICH

L 68-81

−14.5

SFA

W 89-84

−0.5

UNLV

W 77-66

+6.5

WICH

W 83-79

−0.5

UNM

W 74-69

+7.5

AUB

L 86-92

−0.5

covered 19didn’t cover 17avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

URI

W 82-65

−6.5

ORU

W 88-87

+14.5

KSU

L 83-84

+6.5

APSU

W 84-75

+10.5

SJSU

W 81-51

−17.5

UNI

W 63-60

−14.5

MOST

W 98-74

+29.5

UAPB

W 117-84

+45.5

NMSU

W 83-70

+6.5

WKU

W 82-81

+4.5

DEN

W 90-85

+14.5

RICE

W 97-48

−7.5

UNT

L 67-72

+0.5

USF

L 78-93

+7.5

CLT

W 86-74

+13.5

UAB

W 99-77

+16.5

MEM

W 83-66

−4.5

RICE

W 87-81

+15.5

UNT

W 82-66

+6.5

WICH

W 93-83

+21.5

FAU

W 78-76

−8.5

USF

L 74-80

−16.5

UAB

L 63-68

−30.5

WICH

L 77-81

+5.5

CLT

W 79-74

+1.5

UTSA

W 100-74

+14.5

TULN

W 90-56

−10.5

ECU

W 93-66

+2.5

TEM

W 78-76

+4.5

UNT

W 90-84

+32.5

WICH

L 68-81

−3.5

SFA

W 89-84

+23.5

UNLV

W 77-66

−18.5

WICH

W 83-79

+7.5

UNM

W 74-69

−18.5

AUB

L 86-92

+19.5

over 24under 12avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tulsa has the better starters

Position by position: Jackson St 1, Tulsa 2, even 2

Jackson StBetterTulsa

G D. Ruffin23.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 98

JKSTBig

G K. Williams TR14.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 46

G D. McMillian11.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 37

TLSASmall

G J. Johnson TR15 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 69

G M. Williams5.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Moss TR9.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 54

G T. Hoover5.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 23

Even

F M. Emory TR11.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 27

G D. Williams2.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 5

TLSASmall

F C. Loofe TR7.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26

Jackson StBetterTulsa

JKST offense229th of 366 · -7.0

TLSASmall

TLSA defense133rd of 366 · -2.5

JKST defense325th of 366 · -8.4

TLSABig

TLSA offense99th of 366 · -0.8

Backcourt-2.6 · 5 players

TLSASmall

Backcourt-0.9 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-3.8 · 2 players

Bench-5.7 · 5 players

TLSABig

Bench+1.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestJKST betterTLSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jackson St

Guards

D. Ruffin34 minD. McMillian30 minM. Williams20 minT. Hoover20 minD. Williams17 minC. Brunt11 min · TR

Forwards

K. Butler10 minD. Kolev8 minN. WilliamsNewT. LawsonNew

Centers

E. Wilson11 minJ. Williams8 min · TR

Tulsa

Guards

K. Williams36 min · TRJ. Johnson33 min · TRB. Moss27 min · TRM. Williams21 min · TRM. Rigsby19 minJ. Lawal13 min

Forwards

M. Emory37 min · TRC. Loofe26 min · TRK. Banks16 min · TRD. DesireNewA. DimitrijevicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

JKST70.2 #281

TLSA83.9 #20

Points per possession

JKST0.98 #341

TLSA1.20 #16

Pace (possessions)

JKST71.6 #50

TLSA70.1 #115

Shooting

Effective FG%

JKST45.7 #354

TLSA55.4 #29

3-point %

JKST31.4 #311

TLSA38.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

JKST43.3 #105

TLSA46.7 #37

Free throw rate

JKST37.4 #117

TLSA41.4 #39

Possessions

Turnover rate

JKST19.4 #337

TLSA15.6 #109

Offensive rebound rate

JKST29.7 #215

TLSA32.8 #95

Assists per game

JKST10.4 #352

TLSA15.1 #79

Defense

Points allowed

JKST83.8 #354

TLSA74.4 #172

Points allowed per possession

JKST1.17 #344

TLSA1.06 #111

Opponent effective FG%

JKST53.0 #267

TLSA49.5 #82

Opponent 3-point %

JKST34.8 #236

TLSA32.4 #85

Turnovers forced

JKST16.5 #189

TLSA15.4 #260

Defensive rebound rate

JKST62.8 #359

TLSA71.0 #108

Steals per game

JKST6.3 #205

TLSA6.6 #170

Blocks per game

JKST3.0 #226

TLSA2.5 #306

JKST		TLSA
Scoring
70.2 #281	Points per game	83.9 #20
0.98 #341	Points per possession	1.20 #16
71.6 #50	Pace (possessions)	70.1 #115
Shooting
45.7 #354	Effective FG%	55.4 #29
31.4 #311	3-point %	38.5 #10
43.3 #105	3-point attempt rate	46.7 #37
37.4 #117	Free throw rate	41.4 #39
Possessions
19.4 #337	Turnover rate	15.6 #109
29.7 #215	Offensive rebound rate	32.8 #95
10.4 #352	Assists per game	15.1 #79
Defense
83.8 #354	Points allowed	74.4 #172
1.17 #344	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #111
53.0 #267	Opponent effective FG%	49.5 #82
34.8 #236	Opponent 3-point %	32.4 #85
16.5 #189	Turnovers forced	15.4 #260
62.8 #359	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #108
6.3 #205	Steals per game	6.6 #170
3.0 #226	Blocks per game	2.5 #306

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jackson St

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Florida A&M60–70
Wvs Grambling68–65
Wvs Miss Valley St85–77
Wvs AR-Pine Bluff81–78
L@ Texas Southern57–82

A week or more of rest.

Tulsa

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn86–92
Wvs New Mexico74–69
Wvs Wichita St83–79
Wvs UNLV77–66
Wvs SF Austin89–84

A week or more of rest.

Jackson State Tigers at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

What could decide it: TLSA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Jackson St

Tulsa

Tulsa has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jackson St

Tulsa