1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 6
  3. UVM @ FLA
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 6

Vermont Catamounts at Florida Gators

Stephen C. O'Connell Center · at Florida
#186UVMVermont
@
#1FLAFlorida AP #1
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UVMThis seasonFLA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FLA 97–54 · win probability FLA 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 151.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

UVM 1, FLA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UVM has played the 325th-hardest schedule, FLA the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less
FLABig
UVM offense vs FLA defense
Offense 264th of 366 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
FLABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UVM 26.2%, FLA 43.4%. Defensive: UVM 77.0%, FLA 75.2%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UVM plays 65.2 a game (342nd fastest), FLA 72.0 (34th). Faster games mean more points
FLABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UVM 31.1, FLA 39.0. Allowed: UVM 36.4, FLA 34.0
FLABig
FLA offense vs UVM defense
Offense 1st of 366 against a defense 134th, on the model’s ratings
FLASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UVM 31%, FLA 85%. Transfers in: UVM 4, FLA 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
FLASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UVM 53.1 and allows 50.4; FLA 54.1 and allows 46.1
FLASmall
Home court
FLA at home. This season: FLA 0-0 at home, UVM 0-0 away
FLASmall
Three-pointers
UVM hits 33.3% and allows 35.3%; FLA hits 31.2% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 44.6% and 37.0% of their shots
UVMSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UVM 14.3%, FLA 16.4%. Forced: UVM 14.8%, FLA 15.2%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FLA -43.3—
Total—151.0—
Projected score—UVM 53.8 · FLA 97.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFLA -25.6—
1H total70.6—
1H projected scoreUVM 22.5 · FLA 48.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Vermont 0, Florida 4, even 1
VermontBetterFlorida
G D. Yepdo TR10.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 24
FLABig
G D. Aberdeen TR13.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 90
G J. Broom TR2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 14
FLABig
G B. Fland11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 89
G M. Nkugwa2.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
FLABig
F T. Haugh17.1 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 97
F G. Yalden16.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 96
Even
F A. Condon15.1 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98
F N. Barnett5.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 41
FLABig
C R. Chinyelu10.9 pts · 11.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 97
VermontBetterFlorida
UVM offense264th of 366 · -8.1
FLABig
FLA defense4th of 366 · +10.4
UVM defense134th of 366 · -2.5
FLABig
FLA offense1st of 366 · +17.0
Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players
FLABig
Backcourt+5.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players
FLABig
Frontcourt+17.1 · 3 players
Bench-1.4 · 3 players
FLABig
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUVM betterFLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Vermont
Guards
D. Yepdo32 min · TRJ. Broom15 min · TRM. Nkugwa13 minD. Glazkov13 min · TRK. Badru10 min · TRS. Clemons2 min
Forwards
G. Yalden26 minN. Barnett22 minM. BrunettoNewM. MasicNewS. GbiegbaNew
Florida
Guards
D. Aberdeen31 min · TRB. Fland30 minU. Klavzar21 minI. Brown13 minC. Ingram6 minA. Lloyd5 min
Forwards
T. Haugh33 minA. Condon31 minD. PetrovicNewA. ButajevasNew
Centers
R. Chinyelu25 minV. Mikic3 minJ. LayNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UVMFLA
Scoring
72.1 #237Points per game87.1 #5
1.11 #124Points per possession1.21 #7
65.2 #342Pace (possessions)72.0 #34
Shooting
53.1 #95Effective FG%54.1 #63
33.3 #2083-point %31.2 #315
44.6 #773-point attempt rate37.0 #230
31.1 #279Free throw rate39.0 #80
Possessions
14.3 #34Turnover rate16.4 #162
26.2 #318Offensive rebound rate43.4 #2
12.3 #266Assists per game17.0 #26
Defense
68.8 #44Points allowed71.5 #93
1.05 #96Points allowed per possession0.99 #19
50.4 #121Opponent effective FG%46.1 #10
35.3 #267Opponent 3-point %32.1 #66
14.8 #307Turnovers forced15.2 #269
77.0 #2Defensive rebound rate75.2 #7
4.5 #354Steals per game6.6 #158
2.7 #279Blocks per game5.0 #16
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Vermont

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC59–74
  • Wvs NJIT63–54
  • Wvs Bryant77–57
  • Wvs UAlbany69–56
  • Wvs UMass Lowell66–64

A week or more of rest.

Florida

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa72–73
  • Wvs Prairie View114–55
  • Lvs Vanderbilt74–91
  • Wvs Kentucky71–63
  • W@ Kentucky84–77

A week or more of rest.