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  2. Sun, Dec 6
  3. MD @ OSU
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 6

Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes

Schottenstein Center · at Ohio State · Conference game
#50MDMaryland
@
#33OSUOhio State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MDThis seasonOSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OSU 79–72 · win probability OSU 72%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OSU has more of the edges

MD 1, OSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OSUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MD 48.1 and allows 54.4; OSU 56.2 and allows 50.2
OSUBig
Three-pointers
MD hits 31.7% and allows 36.3%; OSU hits 35.7% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 46.9% and 40.1% of their shots
OSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MD 18.6%, OSU 15.3%. Forced: MD 14.9%, OSU 15.6%
MDSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MD 33.8%, OSU 30.4%. Defensive: MD 70.9%, OSU 70.0%
OSUSmall
Home court
OSU at home. This season: OSU 0-0 at home, MD 0-0 away
Even
MD offense vs OSU defense
Offense 63rd of 366 against a defense 35th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MD 36.4, OSU 37.2. Allowed: MD 35.8, OSU 34.7
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MD 47%, OSU 37%. Transfers in: MD 5, OSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
MD has played the 28th-hardest schedule, OSU the 33rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MD plays 67.0 a game (281st fastest), OSU 67.2 (275th). Faster games mean more points
Even
OSU offense vs MD defense
Offense 36th of 366 against a defense 34th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OSU -6.7—
Total—151.1—
Projected score—MD 72.2 · OSU 78.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOSU -3.9—
1H total70.6—
1H projected scoreMD 33.4 · OSU 37.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Maryland has the better starters

Position by position: Maryland 2, Ohio State 1, even 2
MarylandBetterOhio State
G M. McNair TR16.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 84
Even
G J. Mobley15.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
G A. Mills12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
Even
G J. Pippen TR13.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.6 ast Score 90
G B. Boswell TR6.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.1 ast Score 70
OSUSmall
G J. Williams TR14.9 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
F P. Payne17.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 100
MDBig
G C. Givens TR9.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 65
F T. Buljan TR13.1 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 97
MDSmall
F A. Bynum9.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73
MarylandBetterOhio State
MD offense63rd of 366 · +2.4
Even
OSU defense35th of 366 · +3.3
MD defense34th of 366 · +3.3
Even
OSU offense36th of 366 · +5.2
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
OSUBig
Backcourt+9.1 · 4 players
Frontcourt+11.4 · 2 players
MDBig
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
OSUBig
Bench+1.0 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestMD betterOSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Maryland
Guards
M. McNair37 min · TRA. Mills27 minB. Boswell27 min · TRD. Wagner24 min · TRM. Jabriel20 minG. Turkson11 min
Forwards
P. Payne27 minT. Buljan26 min · TRR. Jennings13 min · TRA. BrownNewB. OladotunNewA. TambedouNew
Centers
A. K'MedehoutoNew
Ohio State
Guards
J. Mobley32 minJ. Pippen31 min · TRJ. Williams30 min · TRC. Givens26 min · TRB. Nash2 minM. HerroNew
Forwards
A. Bynum29 minA. Jelavic16 min · TRJ. OjianwunaNewA. ThompsonNewA. SmithNewV. LazarevicNew
Centers
I. Njegovan11 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MDOSU
Scoring
69.7 #291Points per game79.3 #76
1.04 #270Points per possession1.18 #31
67.0 #281Pace (possessions)67.2 #275
Shooting
48.1 #311Effective FG%56.2 #19
31.7 #2933-point %35.7 #72
46.9 #353-point attempt rate40.1 #170
36.4 #142Free throw rate37.2 #122
Possessions
18.6 #300Turnover rate15.3 #91
33.8 #73Offensive rebound rate30.4 #185
10.4 #351Assists per game14.5 #117
Defense
76.6 #232Points allowed72.6 #120
1.14 #312Points allowed per possession1.08 #164
54.4 #312Opponent effective FG%50.2 #114
36.3 #317Opponent 3-point %31.9 #57
14.9 #294Turnovers forced15.6 #243
70.9 #111Defensive rebound rate70.0 #160
4.8 #345Steals per game4.8 #340
2.9 #237Blocks per game2.4 #311
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Maryland

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-17 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa64–75
  • Wvs Oregon70–60
  • Lvs Illinois72–78
  • L@ Wisconsin45–78
  • Lvs Rutgers65–69

A week or more of rest.

Ohio State

21-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs TCU64–66
  • Lvs Michigan67–71
  • Wvs Iowa72–69
  • Wvs Indiana91–78
  • W@ Penn State94–62

A week or more of rest.