Vermont Catamounts at Hofstra Pride: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 2:30 PM ETDavid S. Mack Sports and Exhibition Complex · at Hofstra

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Vermont and Hofstra
UVM	This season	HOF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOF 73–66 · win probability HOF 72%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOF has more of the edges

UVM 2, HOF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HOFBig

Three-pointers

UVM hits 33.3% and allows 35.3%; HOF hits 37.1% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 44.6% and 42.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

UVM has played the 325th-hardest schedule, HOF the 142nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOFBig

UVM offense vs HOF defense

Offense 264th of 366 against a defense 120th, on the model’s ratings

UVMBig

HOF offense vs UVM defense

Offense 254th of 366 against a defense 134th, on the model’s ratings

HOFSmall

Home court

HOF at home. This season: HOF 0-0 at home, UVM 0-0 away

UVMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UVM 14.3%, HOF 16.1%. Forced: UVM 14.8%, HOF 15.0%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UVM 31%, HOF 12%. Transfers in: UVM 4, HOF 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UVM 26.2%, HOF 34.7%. Defensive: UVM 77.0%, HOF 69.0%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UVM 31.1, HOF 31.6. Allowed: UVM 36.4, HOF 35.1

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UVM 53.1 and allows 50.4; HOF 51.4 and allows 46.3

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: UVM plays 65.2 a game (342nd fastest), HOF 65.9 (319th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HOF -6.8	—
Total	—	138.3	—
Projected score	—	UVM 65.8 · HOF 72.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOF -3.9	—
1H total	64.8	—
1H projected score	UVM 30.4 · HOF 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVM LWWLL	14-18	44%	5-10	—
HOF WWLWL	21-12	64%	6-4	—

Venue/role: UVM away; HOF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVM UUOUU	17-15	53%	20-12
HOF UOOOO	18-15	55%	22-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVM	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
HOF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Vermont

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs PRIN	L69–75LO
Dec 6	@ FLA	No recent meeting
Dec 10	@ MRMK	W66–59WU

Hofstra

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ SMC	L48–76LU
Dec 5	@ LSU	No recent meeting
Dec 8	@ COLU	L70–72WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Vermont

32 games played

Straight up

20-12

63% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1263%

W W L L L W L L W W W L L W W W L W W W L L W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L W L W L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

O O O O O O O U U U O O O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@BRWN	W 89-84	-5.5	L −0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 15	@NE	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 18	@BUF	L 90-94	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsLIB	L 73-79	+8.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsURI	L 65-80	+4.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 26	vsPRIN	W 79-74	-5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsYALE	L 74-77	+6.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 151
Dec 3	@ORST	L 58-80	+3.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	@PEPP	W 65-56	-1.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsMRMK	W 66-59	-6.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 17	vsSIE	W 83-69	-2.5	W +11.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 20	vsIONA	L 78-83	-6.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 161
Dec 30	@PRIN	L 69-75	-3.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 3	@UNH	W 80-61	-7.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsBING	W 60-59	-20.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 15	vsME	W 67-62	-14.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 129
Jan 19	@UALB	L 68-75	-5.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 22	@UML	W 77-68	-4.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 24	@BRY	W 62-52	-8.5	W +1.5	133.5	U 114
Jan 29	vsUMBC	W 64-55	-8.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 119
Jan 31	vsNJIT	L 77-79	-13.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 156
Feb 5	@ME	L 70-76	-8.5	L −14.5	130.5	O 146
Feb 7	vsUNH	W 80-57	-9.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 12	@BING	W 73-65	-11.5	L −3.5	136.5	O 138
Feb 14	vsBRY	W 90-63	-13.5	W +13.5	133.5	O 153
Feb 19	@UMBC	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 137
Feb 21	@NJIT	W 70-64	-6.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 26	vsUML	W 66-64	-9.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 3	vsUALB	W 69-56	-9.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 7	vsBRY	W 77-57	-11.5	W +8.5	130.5	O 134
Mar 10	vsNJIT	W 63-54	-10.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 117
Mar 14	@UMBC	L 59-74	+1.5	L −13.5	134.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

−0.5

W 85-74

+12.5

BUF

L 90-94

−5.5

LIB

L 73-79

+2.5

URI

L 65-80

−10.5

PRIN

W 79-74

−0.5

YALE

L 74-77

+3.5

ORST

L 58-80

−18.5

PEPP

W 65-56

+7.5

MRMK

W 66-59

+0.5

SIE

W 83-69

+11.5

IONA

L 78-83

−11.5

PRIN

L 69-75

−9.5

UNH

W 80-61

+11.5

BING

W 60-59

−19.5

W 67-62

−9.5

UALB

L 68-75

−12.5

UML

W 77-68

+4.5

BRY

W 62-52

+1.5

UMBC

W 64-55

+0.5

NJIT

L 77-79

−15.5

L 70-76

−14.5

UNH

W 80-57

+13.5

BING

W 73-65

−3.5

BRY

W 90-63

+13.5

UMBC

L 62-75

−14.5

NJIT

W 70-64

−0.5

UML

W 66-64

−7.5

UALB

W 69-56

+3.5

BRY

W 77-57

+8.5

NJIT

W 63-54

−1.5

UMBC

L 59-74

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

+41.5

W 85-74

+24.5

BUF

L 90-94

+42.5

LIB

L 73-79

+10.5

URI

L 65-80

+0.5

PRIN

W 79-74

+12.5

YALE

L 74-77

+3.5

ORST

L 58-80

−5.5

PEPP

W 65-56

−21.5

MRMK

W 66-59

−11.5

SIE

W 83-69

+17.5

IONA

L 78-83

+8.5

PRIN

L 69-75

+7.5

UNH

W 80-61

+1.5

BING

W 60-59

−21.5

W 67-62

−1.5

UALB

L 68-75

+3.5

UML

W 77-68

−0.5

BRY

W 62-52

−19.5

UMBC

W 64-55

−22.5

NJIT

L 77-79

+16.5

L 70-76

+15.5

UNH

W 80-57

−1.5

BING

W 73-65

+1.5

BRY

W 90-63

+19.5

UMBC

L 62-75

−5.5

NJIT

W 70-64

−8.5

UML

W 66-64

−16.5

UALB

W 69-56

−11.5

BRY

W 77-57

+3.5

NJIT

W 63-54

−17.5

UMBC

L 59-74

−1.5

over 17under 15avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hofstra

33 games played

Straight up

22-11

67% wins

Against the spread

21-12

64% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1167%

L L W L W W W L W W W W W W W L L L L L W W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1264%

W L W W W W W W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W W W L W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1555%

O O O O U O U U O U U O O O U O O O O U U U U U U U O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UCF	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 7	@IONA	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 14	@BUCK	W 83-77	-4.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 19	@TEM	L 76-81	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 157
Nov 28	vsLAS	W 63-58	-3.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsMRMK	W 78-58	-5.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	@PENN	W 77-60	-1.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 3	@COLU	L 70-72	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 7	@PITT	W 80-73	+8.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@SYR	W 70-69	+9.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsQUIN	W 74-66	-7.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 29	vsCAM	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 158
Jan 3	@DREX	W 70-67	-4.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 137
Jan 8	@TOW	W 78-67	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	vsMONM	W 67-64	-7.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 131
Jan 15	@STBK	L 71-76	-6.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 147
Jan 17	vsELON	L 85-89	-5.5	L −9.5	149.5	O 174
Jan 22	@NCAT	L 78-79	-9.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 157
Jan 24	@W&M	L 82-89	+3.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 29	vsCOFC	L 64-66	-2.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 31	@MONM	W 73-57	-1.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 5	vsNE	W 80-63	-8.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 7	vsTOW	W 71-49	-4.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	@COFC	W 66-62	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 14	@UNCW	L 66-70	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsHAMP	W 79-43	-11.5	W +24.5	133.5	U 122
Feb 21	@NE	W 82-68	-6.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsSTBK	W 67-58	-11.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 3	vsDREX	W 62-51	-8.5	W +2.5	133.5	U 113
Mar 8	vsW&M	W 92-61	-2.5	W +28.5	152.5	O 153
Mar 9	vsTOW	W 68-65	-4.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 133
Mar 10	vsMONM	W 75-69	-4.5	W +1.5	133.5	O 144
Mar 20	vsALA	L 70-90	+11.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+4.5

IONA

L 73-81

−9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+1.5

TEM

L 76-81

+0.5

LAS

W 63-58

+1.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+14.5

PENN

W 77-60

+15.5

COLU

L 70-72

+1.5

PITT

W 80-73

+15.5

SYR

W 70-69

+10.5

QUIN

W 74-66

+0.5

CAM

W 86-72

+7.5

DREX

W 70-67

−1.5

TOW

W 78-67

+12.5

MONM

W 67-64

−4.5

STBK

L 71-76

−11.5

ELON

L 85-89

−9.5

NCAT

L 78-79

−10.5

W&M

L 82-89

−3.5

COFC

L 64-66

−4.5

MONM

W 73-57

+14.5

W 80-63

+8.5

TOW

W 71-49

+17.5

COFC

W 66-62

+5.5

UNCW

L 66-70

−1.5

HAMP

W 79-43

+24.5

W 82-68

+7.5

STBK

W 67-58

−2.5

DREX

W 62-51

+2.5

W&M

W 92-61

+28.5

TOW

W 68-65

−1.5

MONM

W 75-69

+1.5

ALA

L 70-90

−8.5

covered 21didn’t cover 12avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+19.5

IONA

L 73-81

+9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+20.5

TEM

L 76-81

+11.5

LAS

W 63-58

−17.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+0.5

PENN

W 77-60

−12.5

COLU

L 70-72

−2.5

PITT

W 80-73

+18.5

SYR

W 70-69

−0.5

QUIN

W 74-66

−7.5

CAM

W 86-72

+8.5

DREX

W 70-67

+5.5

TOW

W 78-67

+10.5

MONM

W 67-64

−8.5

STBK

L 71-76

+10.5

ELON

L 85-89

+24.5

NCAT

L 78-79

+10.5

W&M

L 82-89

+13.5

COFC

L 64-66

−18.5

MONM

W 73-57

−10.5

W 80-63

−10.5

TOW

W 71-49

−17.5

COFC

W 66-62

−18.5

UNCW

L 66-70

−1.5

HAMP

W 79-43

−11.5

W 82-68

+5.5

STBK

W 67-58

−15.5

DREX

W 62-51

−20.5

W&M

W 92-61

+0.5

TOW

W 68-65

+0.5

MONM

W 75-69

+10.5

ALA

L 70-90

+1.5

over 18under 15avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hofstra has the better starters

Position by position: Vermont 1, Hofstra 3, even 1

VermontBetterHofstra

G D. Yepdo TR10.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 24

HOFSmall

G J. Moore TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 46

G J. Broom TR2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 14

HOFSmall

G D. Tavarez TR8.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 47

G M. Nkugwa2.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31

Even

F J. DeCady6.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 17

F G. Yalden16.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 96

UVMBig

F S. Wewe TR2.4 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 17

F N. Barnett5.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 41

HOFSmall

F I. Zorgvol TR5.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 62

VermontBetterHofstra

UVM offense264th of 366 · -8.1

HOFBig

HOF defense120th of 366 · -1.9

UVM defense134th of 366 · -2.5

UVMSmall

HOF offense254th of 366 · -7.7

Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players

HOFBig

Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players

UVMBig

Frontcourt-3.3 · 3 players

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestUVM betterHOF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Vermont

Guards

D. Yepdo32 min · TRJ. Broom15 min · TRM. Nkugwa13 minD. Glazkov13 min · TRK. Badru10 min · TRS. Clemons2 min

Forwards

G. Yalden26 minN. Barnett22 minM. BrunettoNewM. MasicNewS. GbiegbaNew

Hofstra

Guards

J. Moore30 min · TRD. Tavarez23 min · TRT. ThomasNewC. LopezNewT. BoydNewN. JeffersonNew

Forwards

J. DeCady25 minS. Wewe16 min · TRI. Zorgvol15 min · TRR. DunnNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UVM72.1 #237

HOF74.4 #184

Points per possession

UVM1.11 #124

HOF1.13 #86

Pace (possessions)

UVM65.2 #342

HOF65.9 #319

Shooting

Effective FG%

UVM53.1 #95

HOF51.4 #178

3-point %

UVM33.3 #208

HOF37.1 #26

3-point attempt rate

UVM44.6 #77

HOF42.9 #119

Free throw rate

UVM31.1 #279

HOF31.6 #264

Possessions

Turnover rate

UVM14.3 #34

HOF16.1 #148

Offensive rebound rate

UVM26.2 #318

HOF34.7 #54

Assists per game

UVM12.3 #266

HOF12.3 #263

Defense

Points allowed

UVM68.8 #44

HOF68.2 #36

Points allowed per possession

UVM1.05 #96

HOF1.04 #69

Opponent effective FG%

UVM50.4 #121

HOF46.3 #14

Opponent 3-point %

UVM35.3 #267

HOF32.3 #78

Turnovers forced

UVM14.8 #307

HOF15.0 #292

Defensive rebound rate

UVM77.0 #2

HOF69.0 #201

Steals per game

UVM4.5 #354

HOF4.8 #343

Blocks per game

UVM2.7 #279

HOF3.5 #135

UVM		HOF
Scoring
72.1 #237	Points per game	74.4 #184
1.11 #124	Points per possession	1.13 #86
65.2 #342	Pace (possessions)	65.9 #319
Shooting
53.1 #95	Effective FG%	51.4 #178
33.3 #208	3-point %	37.1 #26
44.6 #77	3-point attempt rate	42.9 #119
31.1 #279	Free throw rate	31.6 #264
Possessions
14.3 #34	Turnover rate	16.1 #148
26.2 #318	Offensive rebound rate	34.7 #54
12.3 #266	Assists per game	12.3 #263
Defense
68.8 #44	Points allowed	68.2 #36
1.05 #96	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #69
50.4 #121	Opponent effective FG%	46.3 #14
35.3 #267	Opponent 3-point %	32.3 #78
14.8 #307	Turnovers forced	15.0 #292
77.0 #2	Defensive rebound rate	69.0 #201
4.5 #354	Steals per game	4.8 #343
2.7 #279	Blocks per game	3.5 #135

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Vermont

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMBC59–74
Wvs NJIT63–54
Wvs Bryant77–57
Wvs UAlbany69–56
Wvs UMass Lowell66–64

A week or more of rest.

Hofstra

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama70–90
Wvs Monmouth75–69
Wvs Towson68–65
Wvs William & Mary92–61
Wvs Drexel62–51

A week or more of rest.

Vermont Catamounts at Hofstra Pride

What could decide it: HOF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

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Hofstra

Hofstra has the better starters

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Hofstra