Hofstra Pride at Saint Mary's Gaels: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 12:00 AM ETUniversity Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hofstra and Saint Mary's
HOF	This season	SMC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMC 75–62 · win probability SMC 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 137.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

HOF 0, SMC 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SMCBig

HOF offense vs SMC defense

Offense 254th of 366 against a defense 44th, on the model’s ratings

SMCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOF 31.6, SMC 35.5. Allowed: HOF 35.1, SMC 25.7

SMCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOF 34.7%, SMC 37.5%. Defensive: HOF 69.0%, SMC 76.1%

SMCSmall

Home court

SMC at home. This season: SMC 0-0 at home, HOF 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

HOF has played the 142nd-hardest schedule, SMC the 93rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOF 12%, SMC 32%. Transfers in: HOF 4, SMC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOF 51.4 and allows 46.3; SMC 52.8 and allows 46.8

Even

Three-pointers

HOF hits 37.1% and allows 32.3%; SMC hits 38.7% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 42.9% and 36.4% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOF 16.1%, SMC 16.9%. Forced: HOF 15.0%, SMC 15.1%

Even

SMC offense vs HOF defense

Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 120th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: HOF plays 65.9 a game (319th fastest), SMC 66.2 (305th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SMC -12.9	—
Total	—	137.1	—
Projected score	—	HOF 62.1 · SMC 75

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMC -7.5	—
1H total	64.2	—
1H projected score	HOF 28.3 · SMC 35.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOF WWLWL	21-12	64%	11-6	—
SMC WWWLL	19-13	59%	12-4	—

Venue/role: HOF away; SMC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOF UOOOO	18-15	55%	22-11
SMC OUUUU	14-18	44%	26-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SMC	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hofstra

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ LSU	No recent meeting
Dec 8	@ COLU	L70–72WU
Dec 12	@ QUIN	W74–66WU

Saint Mary's

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ OKST	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs NMSU	W81–68LO
Dec 12	@ UNM	W72–58WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HOF 0–1 SMCSMC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · HOF 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 19, 2022-23	HOF 48 @ SMC 76	SMC -13.5	SMC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hofstra

33 games played

Straight up

22-11

67% wins

Against the spread

21-12

64% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1167%

L L W L W W W L W W W W W W W L L L L L W W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1264%

W L W W W W W W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W W W L W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1555%

O O O O U O U U O U U O O O U O O O O U U U U U U U O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UCF	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 7	@IONA	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 14	@BUCK	W 83-77	-4.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 19	@TEM	L 76-81	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 157
Nov 28	vsLAS	W 63-58	-3.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsMRMK	W 78-58	-5.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	@PENN	W 77-60	-1.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 3	@COLU	L 70-72	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 7	@PITT	W 80-73	+8.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@SYR	W 70-69	+9.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsQUIN	W 74-66	-7.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 29	vsCAM	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 158
Jan 3	@DREX	W 70-67	-4.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 137
Jan 8	@TOW	W 78-67	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	vsMONM	W 67-64	-7.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 131
Jan 15	@STBK	L 71-76	-6.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 147
Jan 17	vsELON	L 85-89	-5.5	L −9.5	149.5	O 174
Jan 22	@NCAT	L 78-79	-9.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 157
Jan 24	@W&M	L 82-89	+3.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 29	vsCOFC	L 64-66	-2.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 31	@MONM	W 73-57	-1.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 5	vsNE	W 80-63	-8.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 7	vsTOW	W 71-49	-4.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	@COFC	W 66-62	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 14	@UNCW	L 66-70	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsHAMP	W 79-43	-11.5	W +24.5	133.5	U 122
Feb 21	@NE	W 82-68	-6.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsSTBK	W 67-58	-11.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 3	vsDREX	W 62-51	-8.5	W +2.5	133.5	U 113
Mar 8	vsW&M	W 92-61	-2.5	W +28.5	152.5	O 153
Mar 9	vsTOW	W 68-65	-4.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 133
Mar 10	vsMONM	W 75-69	-4.5	W +1.5	133.5	O 144
Mar 20	vsALA	L 70-90	+11.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+4.5

IONA

L 73-81

−9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+1.5

TEM

L 76-81

+0.5

LAS

W 63-58

+1.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+14.5

PENN

W 77-60

+15.5

COLU

L 70-72

+1.5

PITT

W 80-73

+15.5

SYR

W 70-69

+10.5

QUIN

W 74-66

+0.5

CAM

W 86-72

+7.5

DREX

W 70-67

−1.5

TOW

W 78-67

+12.5

MONM

W 67-64

−4.5

STBK

L 71-76

−11.5

ELON

L 85-89

−9.5

NCAT

L 78-79

−10.5

W&M

L 82-89

−3.5

COFC

L 64-66

−4.5

MONM

W 73-57

+14.5

W 80-63

+8.5

TOW

W 71-49

+17.5

COFC

W 66-62

+5.5

UNCW

L 66-70

−1.5

HAMP

W 79-43

+24.5

W 82-68

+7.5

STBK

W 67-58

−2.5

DREX

W 62-51

+2.5

W&M

W 92-61

+28.5

TOW

W 68-65

−1.5

MONM

W 75-69

+1.5

ALA

L 70-90

−8.5

covered 21didn’t cover 12avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+19.5

IONA

L 73-81

+9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+20.5

TEM

L 76-81

+11.5

LAS

W 63-58

−17.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+0.5

PENN

W 77-60

−12.5

COLU

L 70-72

−2.5

PITT

W 80-73

+18.5

SYR

W 70-69

−0.5

QUIN

W 74-66

−7.5

CAM

W 86-72

+8.5

DREX

W 70-67

+5.5

TOW

W 78-67

+10.5

MONM

W 67-64

−8.5

STBK

L 71-76

+10.5

ELON

L 85-89

+24.5

NCAT

L 78-79

+10.5

W&M

L 82-89

+13.5

COFC

L 64-66

−18.5

MONM

W 73-57

−10.5

W 80-63

−10.5

TOW

W 71-49

−17.5

COFC

W 66-62

−18.5

UNCW

L 66-70

−1.5

HAMP

W 79-43

−11.5

W 82-68

+5.5

STBK

W 67-58

−15.5

DREX

W 62-51

−20.5

W&M

W 92-61

+0.5

TOW

W 68-65

+0.5

MONM

W 75-69

+10.5

ALA

L 70-90

+1.5

over 18under 15avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Mary's

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1359%

W W W W L L W L W L L L L W W W L W L W L W W W W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O O O U U O U U O U O U U O O O U U U U U U O U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTMN	W 84-58	-13.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 7	vsUTC	W 87-66	-15.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 11	vsOHIO	W 90-60	-17.5	W +12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsUNT	W 80-49	-14.5	W +16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 19	vsARST	W 85-72	-20.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 26	vsWICH	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsVT	W 77-66	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVAN	L 71-96	+4.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 7	@DAV	W 70-61	-8.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 14	vsBOIS	L 67-68	-2.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 19	vsFAU	W 88-75	-13.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsUNI	W 63-58	-11.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 28	@LMU	W 78-73	-9.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	@PEPP	W 72-45	-19.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 117
Jan 2	vsPORT	W 78-57	-18.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 135
Jan 4	vsSEA	W 93-76	-11.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsWSU	W 88-82	-15.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 170
Jan 13	@SF	W 82-68	-5.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 17	@SCU	L 54-62	+1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 21	vsORST	W 81-51	-19.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 24	@PORT	W 75-69	-14.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 31	@GONZ	L 65-73	+8.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsUSD	W 87-60	-20.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 147
Feb 7	vsSF	W 79-54	-11.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 11	vsPEPP	W 88-60	-24.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 14	@PAC	W 72-61	-7.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 18	@SEA	W 72-70	-9.5	L −7.5	133.5	O 142
Feb 21	@WSU	W 83-67	-8.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 150
Feb 25	vsSCU	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsGONZ	W 70-59	+2.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 9	vsSCU	L 71-76	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 19	vsTA&M	L 50-63	-2.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 113

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+12.5

UTC

W 87-66

+5.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+12.5

UNT

W 80-49

+16.5

ARST

W 85-72

−7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

+5.5

VAN

L 71-96

−20.5

DAV

W 70-61

+0.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−3.5

FAU

W 88-75

−0.5

UNI

W 63-58

−6.5

LMU

W 78-73

−4.5

PEPP

W 72-45

+7.5

PORT

W 78-57

+2.5

SEA

W 93-76

+5.5

WSU

W 88-82

−9.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−6.5

ORST

W 81-51

+10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−8.5

GONZ

L 65-73

+0.5

USD

W 87-60

+6.5

W 79-54

+13.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

+3.5

SEA

W 72-70

−7.5

WSU

W 83-67

+7.5

SCU

W 86-67

+13.5

GONZ

W 70-59

+13.5

SCU

L 71-76

−9.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+0.5

UTC

W 87-66

+7.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+5.5

UNT

W 80-49

+0.5

ARST

W 85-72

+7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

−1.5

VAN

L 71-96

+17.5

DAV

W 70-61

−6.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−4.5

FAU

W 88-75

+17.5

UNI

W 63-58

−11.5

LMU

W 78-73

+7.5

PEPP

W 72-45

−24.5

PORT

W 78-57

−11.5

SEA

W 93-76

+29.5

WSU

W 88-82

+26.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−36.5

ORST

W 81-51

−10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−0.5

GONZ

L 65-73

−6.5

USD

W 87-60

−1.5

W 79-54

−9.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

−2.5

SEA

W 72-70

+8.5

WSU

W 83-67

+0.5

SCU

W 86-67

−0.5

GONZ

W 70-59

−14.5

SCU

L 71-76

−3.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−36.5

over 14under 18avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Mary's has the better starters

Position by position: Hofstra 0, Saint Mary's 2, even 3

HofstraBetterSaint Mary's

G J. Moore TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 46

SMCBig

G J. Dent12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83

G D. Tavarez TR8.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 47

Even

G J. Dent-Smith TR8.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 53

F J. DeCady6.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 17

Even

G R. Hawke2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 21

F S. Wewe TR2.4 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 17

SMCBig

F T. Ndong TR4.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 73

F I. Zorgvol TR5.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 62

No call

F K. Gad1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

HofstraBetterSaint Mary's

HOF offense254th of 366 · -7.7

SMCBig

SMC defense44th of 366 · +2.5

HOF defense120th of 366 · -1.9

Even

SMC offense129th of 366 · -3.5

Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players

SMCSmall

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-3.3 · 3 players

SMCBig

Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestHOF betterSMC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hofstra

Guards

J. Moore30 min · TRD. Tavarez23 min · TRT. ThomasNewC. LopezNewT. BoydNewN. JeffersonNew

Forwards

J. DeCady25 minS. Wewe16 min · TRI. Zorgvol15 min · TRR. DunnNew

Saint Mary's

Guards

J. Dent37 minJ. Dent-Smith20 min · TRR. Hawke11 minL. Fennell8 min · TRM. Juzenas6 minD. BivinsNew

Forwards

T. Ndong18 min · TRK. Gad10 minV. Zougris9 min · TRJ. LewisNewT. MacLeanNew

Centers

S. Altuntas8 min · TRJ. GardnerNewF. PavelyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOF74.4 #184

SMC76.8 #125

Points per possession

HOF1.13 #86

SMC1.17 #39

Pace (possessions)

HOF65.9 #319

SMC66.2 #305

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOF51.4 #178

SMC52.8 #109

3-point %

HOF37.1 #26

SMC38.7 #7

3-point attempt rate

HOF42.9 #119

SMC36.4 #242

Free throw rate

HOF31.6 #264

SMC35.5 #162

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOF16.1 #148

SMC16.9 #201

Offensive rebound rate

HOF34.7 #54

SMC37.5 #12

Assists per game

HOF12.3 #263

SMC15.1 #82

Defense

Points allowed

HOF68.2 #36

SMC65.2 #7

Points allowed per possession

HOF1.04 #69

SMC0.98 #14

Opponent effective FG%

HOF46.3 #14

SMC46.8 #20

Opponent 3-point %

HOF32.3 #78

SMC31.4 #40

Turnovers forced

HOF15.0 #292

SMC15.1 #274

Defensive rebound rate

HOF69.0 #201

SMC76.1 #4

Steals per game

HOF4.8 #343

SMC5.5 #302

Blocks per game

HOF3.5 #135

SMC3.6 #129

HOF		SMC
Scoring
74.4 #184	Points per game	76.8 #125
1.13 #86	Points per possession	1.17 #39
65.9 #319	Pace (possessions)	66.2 #305
Shooting
51.4 #178	Effective FG%	52.8 #109
37.1 #26	3-point %	38.7 #7
42.9 #119	3-point attempt rate	36.4 #242
31.6 #264	Free throw rate	35.5 #162
Possessions
16.1 #148	Turnover rate	16.9 #201
34.7 #54	Offensive rebound rate	37.5 #12
12.3 #263	Assists per game	15.1 #82
Defense
68.2 #36	Points allowed	65.2 #7
1.04 #69	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #14
46.3 #14	Opponent effective FG%	46.8 #20
32.3 #78	Opponent 3-point %	31.4 #40
15.0 #292	Turnovers forced	15.1 #274
69.0 #201	Defensive rebound rate	76.1 #4
4.8 #343	Steals per game	5.5 #302
3.5 #135	Blocks per game	3.6 #129

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hofstra

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama70–90
Wvs Monmouth75–69
Wvs Towson68–65
Wvs William & Mary92–61
Wvs Drexel62–51

A week or more of rest.

Saint Mary's

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-3 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas A&M50–63
Lvs Santa Clara71–76
Wvs Gonzaga70–59
Wvs Santa Clara86–67
W@ Washington St83–67

A week or more of rest.

Hofstra Pride at Saint Mary's Gaels

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Hofstra

Saint Mary's

Saint Mary's has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hofstra

Saint Mary's