Hofstra Pride at LSU Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 2:00 PM ETPete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU

#51LSULSU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hofstra and LSU
HOF	This season	LSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LSU 83–66 · win probability LSU 93%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

HOF 1, LSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HOFBig

Three-pointers

HOF hits 37.1% and allows 32.3%; LSU hits 33.1% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 42.9% and 34.5% of their shots

LSUBig

HOF offense vs LSU defense

Offense 254th of 366 against a defense 77th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: HOF plays 65.9 a game (319th fastest), LSU 70.5 (95th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

HOF has played the 142nd-hardest schedule, LSU the 49th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LSUSmall

LSU offense vs HOF defense

Offense 37th of 366 against a defense 120th, on the model’s ratings

LSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOF 31.6, LSU 40.9. Allowed: HOF 35.1, LSU 37.8

LSUSmall

Home court

LSU at home. This season: LSU 0-0 at home, HOF 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOF 34.7%, LSU 33.1%. Defensive: HOF 69.0%, LSU 68.3%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOF 51.4 and allows 46.3; LSU 52.8 and allows 50.9

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOF 12%, LSU 0%. Transfers in: HOF 4, LSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOF 16.1%, LSU 15.5%. Forced: HOF 15.0%, LSU 14.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LSU -16.9	—
Total	—	148.6	—
Projected score	—	HOF 65.8 · LSU 82.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LSU -9.9	—
1H total	69.5	—
1H projected score	HOF 29.8 · LSU 39.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOF WWLWL	21-12	64%	11-6	—
LSU WLLLW	18-14	56%	7-10	—

Venue/role: HOF away; LSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOF UOOOO	18-15	55%	22-11
LSU OUOOO	16-16	50%	15-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
LSU	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hofstra

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ COLU	L70–72WU
Dec 12	@ QUIN	W74–66WU

LSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs HOU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hofstra

33 games played

Straight up

22-11

67% wins

Against the spread

21-12

64% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1167%

L L W L W W W L W W W W W W W L L L L L W W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1264%

W L W W W W W W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W W W L W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1555%

O O O O U O U U O U U O O O U O O O O U U U U U U U O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UCF	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 7	@IONA	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 14	@BUCK	W 83-77	-4.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 19	@TEM	L 76-81	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 157
Nov 28	vsLAS	W 63-58	-3.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsMRMK	W 78-58	-5.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	@PENN	W 77-60	-1.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 3	@COLU	L 70-72	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 7	@PITT	W 80-73	+8.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@SYR	W 70-69	+9.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsQUIN	W 74-66	-7.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 29	vsCAM	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 158
Jan 3	@DREX	W 70-67	-4.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 137
Jan 8	@TOW	W 78-67	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	vsMONM	W 67-64	-7.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 131
Jan 15	@STBK	L 71-76	-6.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 147
Jan 17	vsELON	L 85-89	-5.5	L −9.5	149.5	O 174
Jan 22	@NCAT	L 78-79	-9.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 157
Jan 24	@W&M	L 82-89	+3.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 29	vsCOFC	L 64-66	-2.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 31	@MONM	W 73-57	-1.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 5	vsNE	W 80-63	-8.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 7	vsTOW	W 71-49	-4.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	@COFC	W 66-62	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 14	@UNCW	L 66-70	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsHAMP	W 79-43	-11.5	W +24.5	133.5	U 122
Feb 21	@NE	W 82-68	-6.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsSTBK	W 67-58	-11.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 3	vsDREX	W 62-51	-8.5	W +2.5	133.5	U 113
Mar 8	vsW&M	W 92-61	-2.5	W +28.5	152.5	O 153
Mar 9	vsTOW	W 68-65	-4.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 133
Mar 10	vsMONM	W 75-69	-4.5	W +1.5	133.5	O 144
Mar 20	vsALA	L 70-90	+11.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+4.5

IONA

L 73-81

−9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+1.5

TEM

L 76-81

+0.5

LAS

W 63-58

+1.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+14.5

PENN

W 77-60

+15.5

COLU

L 70-72

+1.5

PITT

W 80-73

+15.5

SYR

W 70-69

+10.5

QUIN

W 74-66

+0.5

CAM

W 86-72

+7.5

DREX

W 70-67

−1.5

TOW

W 78-67

+12.5

MONM

W 67-64

−4.5

STBK

L 71-76

−11.5

ELON

L 85-89

−9.5

NCAT

L 78-79

−10.5

W&M

L 82-89

−3.5

COFC

L 64-66

−4.5

MONM

W 73-57

+14.5

W 80-63

+8.5

TOW

W 71-49

+17.5

COFC

W 66-62

+5.5

UNCW

L 66-70

−1.5

HAMP

W 79-43

+24.5

W 82-68

+7.5

STBK

W 67-58

−2.5

DREX

W 62-51

+2.5

W&M

W 92-61

+28.5

TOW

W 68-65

−1.5

MONM

W 75-69

+1.5

ALA

L 70-90

−8.5

covered 21didn’t cover 12avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+19.5

IONA

L 73-81

+9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+20.5

TEM

L 76-81

+11.5

LAS

W 63-58

−17.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+0.5

PENN

W 77-60

−12.5

COLU

L 70-72

−2.5

PITT

W 80-73

+18.5

SYR

W 70-69

−0.5

QUIN

W 74-66

−7.5

CAM

W 86-72

+8.5

DREX

W 70-67

+5.5

TOW

W 78-67

+10.5

MONM

W 67-64

−8.5

STBK

L 71-76

+10.5

ELON

L 85-89

+24.5

NCAT

L 78-79

+10.5

W&M

L 82-89

+13.5

COFC

L 64-66

−18.5

MONM

W 73-57

−10.5

W 80-63

−10.5

TOW

W 71-49

−17.5

COFC

W 66-62

−18.5

UNCW

L 66-70

−1.5

HAMP

W 79-43

−11.5

W 82-68

+5.5

STBK

W 67-58

−15.5

DREX

W 62-51

−20.5

W&M

W 92-61

+0.5

TOW

W 68-65

+0.5

MONM

W 75-69

+10.5

ALA

L 70-90

+1.5

over 18under 15avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

LSU

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1456%

W W L L W L W W L W L L W W L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O U O O O U O U U O U O U U O U U U U O U O U U U O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsTAR	W 96-60	-15.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 10	vsNOLA	W 93-58	-19.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsFIU	W 98-81	-21.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsALCN	W 107-81	-32.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 21	vsOMA	W 99-73	-20.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 28	vsDRKE	W 71-62	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsDEP	W 96-63	-5.5	W +27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 3	@BC	W 78-69	-7.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 7	vsTTU	L 58-82	+5.5	L −18.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 13	vsSMU	W 89-77	-1.5	W +10.5	158.5	O 166
Dec 19	vsSELA	W 78-65	-24.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 22	vsPV	W 104-90	-29.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 194
Dec 29	vsUSM	W 90-62	-21.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 3	@TA&M	L 72-75	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	U 147
Jan 6	vsSC	L 68-78	-7.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	@VAN	L 73-84	+13.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 157
Jan 14	vsUK	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	vsMIZ	W 78-70	-1.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 20	@FLA	L 61-79	+15.5	L −2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	@ARK	L 81-85	+10.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 28	vsMSST	L 66-80	-7.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@SC	W 92-87	-2.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsUGA	L 71-83	+1.5	L −10.5	161.5	U 154
Feb 10	vsARK	L 62-91	+4.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 153
Feb 14	@TENN	L 63-73	+14.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 17	@TEX	L 85-88	+10.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 173
Feb 21	vsALA	L 83-90	+7.5	W +0.5	172.5	O 173
Feb 25	@MISS	W 106-99	+2.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 205
Feb 28	vsOU	L 67-83	-1.5	L −17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	@AUB	L 74-88	+10.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 162
Mar 7	vsTA&M	L 91-94	+2.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 185
Mar 11	vsUK	L 82-87	+8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+20.5

NOLA

W 93-58

+15.5

FIU

W 98-81

−4.5

ALCN

W 107-81

−6.5

OMA

W 99-73

+5.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−2.5

DEP

W 96-63

+27.5

W 78-69

+1.5

TTU

L 58-82

−18.5

SMU

W 89-77

+10.5

SELA

W 78-65

−11.5

W 104-90

−15.5

USM

W 90-62

+6.5

TA&M

L 72-75

+2.5

L 68-78

−17.5

VAN

L 73-84

+2.5

L 74-75

+2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

+6.5

FLA

L 61-79

−2.5

ARK

L 81-85

+6.5

MSST

L 66-80

−21.5

W 92-87

+2.5

UGA

L 71-83

−10.5

ARK

L 62-91

−24.5

TENN

L 63-73

+4.5

TEX

L 85-88

+7.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+9.5

L 67-83

−17.5

AUB

L 74-88

−3.5

TA&M

L 91-94

−0.5

L 82-87

+3.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+7.5

NOLA

W 93-58

−11.5

FIU

W 98-81

+20.5

ALCN

W 107-81

+32.5

OMA

W 99-73

+8.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−18.5

DEP

W 96-63

+6.5

W 78-69

−2.5

TTU

L 58-82

−14.5

SMU

W 89-77

+7.5

SELA

W 78-65

−1.5

W 104-90

+32.5

USM

W 90-62

−2.5

TA&M

L 72-75

−21.5

L 68-78

+0.5

VAN

L 73-84

−2.5

L 74-75

−2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

−0.5

FLA

L 61-79

−18.5

ARK

L 81-85

+2.5

MSST

L 66-80

−8.5

W 92-87

+31.5

UGA

L 71-83

−7.5

ARK

L 62-91

−6.5

TENN

L 63-73

−7.5

TEX

L 85-88

+22.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+57.5

L 67-83

−5.5

AUB

L 74-88

+6.5

TA&M

L 91-94

+23.5

L 82-87

+17.5

over 16under 16avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU has the better starters

Position by position: Hofstra 1, LSU 4, even 0

HofstraBetterLSU

G J. Moore TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 46

LSUBig

G D. Dent TR13.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 7.6 ast Score 95

G D. Tavarez TR8.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 47

HOFSmall

G A. Nunez TR9.6 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 17

F J. DeCady6.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 17

LSUBig

G S. Clark TR11.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2 ast Score 87

F S. Wewe TR2.4 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 17

LSUBig

G A. Bashir TR13.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92

F I. Zorgvol TR5.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 62

LSUSmall

F M. Dioubate TR8.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 94

HofstraBetterLSU

HOF offense254th of 366 · -7.7

LSUBig

LSU defense77th of 366 · +0.5

HOF defense120th of 366 · -1.9

LSUSmall

LSU offense37th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players

LSUBig

Backcourt+5.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-3.3 · 3 players

LSUBig

Frontcourt+3.1 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+0.4 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestHOF betterLSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hofstra

Guards

J. Moore30 min · TRD. Tavarez23 min · TRT. ThomasNewC. LopezNewT. BoydNewN. JeffersonNew

Forwards

J. DeCady25 minS. Wewe16 min · TRI. Zorgvol15 min · TRR. DunnNew

LSU

Guards

D. Dent34 min · TRA. Nunez29 min · TRS. Clark29 min · TRA. Bashir25 min · TRD. Ugochukwu16 min · TRL. StansburyNew

Forwards

M. Dioubate22 min · TRS. NiangNewJ. BenderNew

Centers

B. DessertNewG. LevyNewS. PearsonNewM. RuzicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOF74.4 #184

LSU81.4 #41

Points per possession

HOF1.13 #86

LSU1.15 #60

Pace (possessions)

HOF65.9 #319

LSU70.5 #95

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOF51.4 #178

LSU52.8 #111

3-point %

HOF37.1 #26

LSU33.1 #225

3-point attempt rate

HOF42.9 #119

LSU34.5 #286

Free throw rate

HOF31.6 #264

LSU40.9 #49

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOF16.1 #148

LSU15.5 #106

Offensive rebound rate

HOF34.7 #54

LSU33.1 #87

Assists per game

HOF12.3 #263

LSU14.7 #106

Defense

Points allowed

HOF68.2 #36

LSU78.5 #279

Points allowed per possession

HOF1.04 #69

LSU1.12 #270

Opponent effective FG%

HOF46.3 #14

LSU50.9 #150

Opponent 3-point %

HOF32.3 #78

LSU35.4 #271

Turnovers forced

HOF15.0 #292

LSU14.0 #335

Defensive rebound rate

HOF69.0 #201

LSU68.3 #239

Steals per game

HOF4.8 #343

LSU6.0 #240

Blocks per game

HOF3.5 #135

LSU3.9 #87

HOF		LSU
Scoring
74.4 #184	Points per game	81.4 #41
1.13 #86	Points per possession	1.15 #60
65.9 #319	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #95
Shooting
51.4 #178	Effective FG%	52.8 #111
37.1 #26	3-point %	33.1 #225
42.9 #119	3-point attempt rate	34.5 #286
31.6 #264	Free throw rate	40.9 #49
Possessions
16.1 #148	Turnover rate	15.5 #106
34.7 #54	Offensive rebound rate	33.1 #87
12.3 #263	Assists per game	14.7 #106
Defense
68.2 #36	Points allowed	78.5 #279
1.04 #69	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #270
46.3 #14	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #150
32.3 #78	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #271
15.0 #292	Turnovers forced	14.0 #335
69.0 #201	Defensive rebound rate	68.3 #239
4.8 #343	Steals per game	6.0 #240
3.5 #135	Blocks per game	3.9 #87

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hofstra

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama70–90
Wvs Monmouth75–69
Wvs Towson68–65
Wvs William & Mary92–61
Wvs Drexel62–51

A week or more of rest.

LSU

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky82–87
Lvs Texas A&M91–94
L@ Auburn74–88
Lvs Oklahoma67–83
W@ Ole Miss106–99

A week or more of rest.

Hofstra Pride at LSU Tigers

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Hofstra

LSU

LSU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hofstra

LSU