1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. NCAT @ UMES
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

North Carolina A&T Aggies at Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

Hytche Center · at MD Eastern
#275NCATNC A&T
@
#364UMESMD Eastern
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NCATThis seasonUMES
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCAT 76–68 · win probability NCAT 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCAT has more of the edges

NCAT 4, UMES 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NCATBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NCAT 42.3, UMES 29.4. Allowed: NCAT 37.5, UMES 43.0
NCATBig
NCAT offense vs UMES defense
Offense 234th of 366 against a defense 350th, on the model’s ratings
NCATSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NCAT 31.7%, UMES 32.4%. Defensive: NCAT 71.4%, UMES 66.4%
UMESSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NCAT 18.6%, UMES 23.7%. Forced: NCAT 14.1%, UMES 18.0%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NCAT plays 69.4 a game (150th fastest), UMES 65.8 (321st). Faster games mean more points
UMESSmall
Three-pointers
NCAT hits 31.6% and allows 36.6%; UMES hits 29.0% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 32.6% and 33.5% of their shots
NCATSmall
UMES offense vs NCAT defense
Offense 364th of 366 against a defense 311th, on the model’s ratings
UMESSmall
Home court
UMES at home. This season: UMES 0-0 at home, NCAT 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NCAT 16%, UMES 9%. Transfers in: NCAT 2, UMES 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NCAT 50.7 and allows 52.9; UMES 47.8 and allows 50.8
Context
Schedule so far
NCAT has played the 238th-hardest schedule, UMES the 240th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NCAT -7.6—
Total—144.1—
Projected score—NCAT 75.8 · UMES 68.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNCAT -4.6—
1H total67.4—
1H projected scoreNCAT 36 · UMES 31.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC A&T has the better starters

Position by position: NC A&T 1, MD Eastern 0, even 4
NC A&TBetterMD Eastern
G P. James TR13.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.1 ast Score 66
No call
G I. Hall NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G S. Lancaster TR10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 50
NCATBig
F L. Beckwith1.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 1
G M. Burton5.2 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13
No call
F L. Gibson-Savadel TR2.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
F M. Webster NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F E. Berhanu NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
C W. Felton6.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 65
No call
F G. Tokody NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
NC A&TBetterMD Eastern
NCAT offense234th of 366 · -7.2
NCATSmall
UMES defense350th of 366 · -9.7
NCAT defense311th of 366 · -8.1
Even
UMES offense364th of 366 · -15.3
Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players
No call
BackcourtNo numbers yet
Frontcourt+0.8 · 2 players
NCATBig
Frontcourt-3.5 · 4 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestNCAT betterUMES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NC A&T
Guards
P. James33 min · TRS. Lancaster29 min · TRM. Burton17 minJ. McKieNewU. Kellman-NicholesNewB. IveryNew
Forwards
M. WebsterNewS. SimleyNew
Centers
W. Felton16 minE. KalliontzisNew
MD Eastern
Guards
I. HallNewE. JohnsonNewI. GriffinNewS. MooreNewB. GardnerNewV. EzehNew
Forwards
L. Beckwith17 minL. Gibson-Savadel7 min · TRE. BerhanuNewG. TokodyNewA. ColeNewD. Hall-JohnsonNew
Centers
E. OgohNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NCATUMES
Scoring
73.9 #205Points per game62.4 #360
1.07 #213Points per possession0.94 #358
69.4 #150Pace (possessions)65.8 #321
Shooting
50.7 #201Effective FG%47.8 #319
31.6 #3043-point %29.0 #354
32.6 #3223-point attempt rate33.5 #309
42.3 #26Free throw rate29.4 #321
Possessions
18.6 #304Turnover rate23.7 #365
31.7 #136Offensive rebound rate32.4 #112
11.5 #311Assists per game13.0 #213
Defense
78.5 #278Points allowed71.5 #91
1.13 #285Points allowed per possession1.09 #207
52.9 #266Opponent effective FG%50.8 #142
36.6 #331Opponent 3-point %33.5 #156
14.1 #332Turnovers forced18.0 #95
71.4 #89Defensive rebound rate66.4 #311
5.1 #323Steals per game5.7 #274
3.8 #107Blocks per game2.5 #302
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC A&T

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northeastern72–88
  • L@ Campbell72–90
  • Lvs William & Mary88–91
  • L@ UNC Wilmington65–88
  • W@ Elon102–82

A week or more of rest.

MD Eastern

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 5-10 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs NC Central76–83
  • Lvs Delaware St56–57
  • Lvs NC Central73–77
  • Wvs SC State69–57
  • L@ Coppin St65–71

A week or more of rest.