1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. JMU @ NCAT
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

James Madison Dukes at North Carolina A&T Aggies

Corbett Sports Center · at NC A&T
#158JMUJames Madison
@
#275NCATNC A&T
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
JMUThis seasonNCAT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JMU 76–73 · win probability JMU 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 149.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JMU has more of the edges

JMU 4, NCAT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
JMUBig
Three-pointers
JMU hits 35.4% and allows 32.7%; NCAT hits 31.6% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 42.5% and 32.6% of their shots
JMUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: JMU 53.1 and allows 49.0; NCAT 50.7 and allows 52.9
JMUBig
JMU offense vs NCAT defense
Offense 181st of 366 against a defense 311th, on the model’s ratings
NCATSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: JMU 35.9, NCAT 42.3. Allowed: JMU 40.8, NCAT 37.5
JMUSmall
NCAT offense vs JMU defense
Offense 234th of 366 against a defense 154th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: JMU plays 67.5 a game (253rd fastest), NCAT 69.4 (150th). Faster games mean more points
NCATSmall
Home court
NCAT at home. This season: NCAT 0-0 at home, JMU 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: JMU 30.6%, NCAT 31.7%. Defensive: JMU 70.5%, NCAT 71.4%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: JMU 17.3%, NCAT 18.6%. Forced: JMU 12.8%, NCAT 14.1%
Context
Schedule so far
JMU has played the 257th-hardest schedule, NCAT the 238th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: JMU 17%, NCAT 16%. Transfers in: JMU 8, NCAT 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—JMU -2.4—
Total—149.2—
Projected score—JMU 75.8 · NCAT 73.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadJMU -1.6—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreJMU 35.7 · NCAT 34.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC A&T has the better starters

Position by position: James Madison 1, NC A&T 2, even 2
James MadisonBetterNC A&T
G G. Lattimore TR15.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 48
NCATSmall
G P. James TR13.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.1 ast Score 66
G A. Myers TR11.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 1 ast Score 73
JMUSmall
G S. Lancaster TR10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 50
G C. Reilly TR3 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Burton5.2 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13
F J. Hogarth TR10.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
No call
F M. Webster NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F P. Fowler6.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25
NCATBig
C W. Felton6.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 65
James MadisonBetterNC A&T
JMU offense181st of 366 · -5.7
JMUBig
NCAT defense311th of 366 · -8.1
JMU defense154th of 366 · -3.4
JMUSmall
NCAT offense234th of 366 · -7.2
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players
NCATSmall
Frontcourt+0.8 · 2 players
Bench-3.8 · 5 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestJMU betterNCAT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
James Madison
Guards
G. Lattimore37 min · TRA. Myers29 min · TRC. Reilly23 min · TRK. Windham13 min · TRP. Jones11 minB. Lee5 min · TR
Forwards
J. Hogarth25 min · TRP. Fowler23 minG. Sundra18 min · TRM. Curtis16 min · TRJ. BrownNewA. EvansNew
NC A&T
Guards
P. James33 min · TRS. Lancaster29 min · TRM. Burton17 minJ. McKieNewU. Kellman-NicholesNewB. IveryNew
Forwards
M. WebsterNewS. SimleyNew
Centers
W. Felton16 minE. KalliontzisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
JMUNCAT
Scoring
74.7 #172Points per game73.9 #205
1.10 #128Points per possession1.07 #213
67.5 #253Pace (possessions)69.4 #150
Shooting
53.1 #97Effective FG%50.7 #201
35.4 #943-point %31.6 #304
42.5 #1283-point attempt rate32.6 #322
35.9 #153Free throw rate42.3 #26
Possessions
17.3 #225Turnover rate18.6 #304
30.6 #175Offensive rebound rate31.7 #136
12.5 #252Assists per game11.5 #311
Defense
74.4 #170Points allowed78.5 #278
1.10 #226Points allowed per possession1.13 #285
49.0 #66Opponent effective FG%52.9 #266
32.7 #101Opponent 3-point %36.6 #331
12.8 #359Turnovers forced14.1 #332
70.5 #134Defensive rebound rate71.4 #89
5.1 #327Steals per game5.1 #323
4.1 #68Blocks per game3.8 #107
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

James Madison

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss80–86
  • Wvs Louisiana87–72
  • Lvs Coastal68–69
  • Wvs GA Southern82–66
  • W@ Georgia St80–65

A week or more of rest.

NC A&T

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northeastern72–88
  • L@ Campbell72–90
  • Lvs William & Mary88–91
  • L@ UNC Wilmington65–88
  • W@ Elon102–82

A week or more of rest.