1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. SMC @ OKST
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Saint Mary's Gaels at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Gallagher-Iba Arena · at Oklahoma St
#97SMCSaint Mary's
@
#45OKSTOklahoma St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SMCThis seasonOKST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKST 81–72 · win probability OKST 77%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

SMC 3, OKST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMCBig
Three-pointers
SMC hits 38.7% and allows 31.4%; OKST hits 33.9% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 36.4% and 35.5% of their shots
SMCBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SMC 37.5%, OKST 30.8%. Defensive: SMC 76.1%, OKST 69.7%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SMC plays 66.2 a game (305th fastest), OKST 74.8 (6th). Faster games mean more points
SMCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SMC 52.8 and allows 46.8; OKST 52.0 and allows 53.1
OKSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SMC 16.9%, OKST 15.7%. Forced: SMC 15.1%, OKST 15.7%
OKSTSmall
Home court
OKST at home. This season: OKST 0-0 at home, SMC 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
SMC has played the 93rd-hardest schedule, OKST the 60th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
SMC offense vs OKST defense
Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 99th, on the model’s ratings
Even
OKST offense vs SMC defense
Offense 23rd of 366 against a defense 44th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SMC 32%, OKST 41%. Transfers in: SMC 5, OKST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SMC 35.5, OKST 39.4. Allowed: SMC 25.7, OKST 31.4
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OKST -8.6—
Total—153.3—
Projected score—SMC 72.4 · OKST 80.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOKST -5.0—
1H total71.6—
1H projected scoreSMC 33.3 · OKST 38.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Oklahoma St has the better starters

Position by position: Saint Mary's 0, Oklahoma St 3, even 2
Saint Mary'sBetterOklahoma St
G J. Dent12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83
Even
G K. Clary10.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.6 ast Score 78
G J. Dent-Smith TR8.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 53
OKSTBig
G K. Natt TR11.3 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 94
G R. Hawke2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 21
OKSTSmall
G J. Walker TR11.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55
F T. Ndong TR4.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 73
OKSTSmall
F J. Burks TR13.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
F K. Gad1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
F P. Fallah14.7 pts · 6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 97
Saint Mary'sBetterOklahoma St
SMC offense129th of 366 · -3.5
Even
OKST defense99th of 366 · -0.7
SMC defense44th of 366 · +2.5
Even
OKST offense23rd of 366 · +7.5
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
OKSTBig
Backcourt+4.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
OKSTBig
Frontcourt+7.7 · 2 players
Bench-0.6 · 4 players
OKSTSmall
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSMC betterOKST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Saint Mary's
Guards
J. Dent37 minJ. Dent-Smith20 min · TRR. Hawke11 minL. Fennell8 min · TRM. Juzenas6 minD. BivinsNew
Forwards
T. Ndong18 min · TRK. Gad10 minV. Zougris9 min · TRJ. LewisNewT. MacLeanNew
Centers
S. Altuntas8 min · TRJ. GardnerNewF. PavelyNew
Oklahoma St
Guards
K. Clary28 minK. Natt27 min · TRJ. Walker26 min · TRL. Bogavac24 min · TRR. Crotty10 minJ. MontonatiNew
Forwards
J. Burks28 min · TRP. Fallah26 minA. Grbovic20 min · TRB. Ahmed13 minM. Ragland6 minL. AllmondNew
Centers
J. Halaifonua20 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SMCOKST
Scoring
76.8 #125Points per game83.9 #21
1.17 #39Points per possession1.12 #110
66.2 #305Pace (possessions)74.8 #6
Shooting
52.8 #109Effective FG%52.0 #144
38.7 #73-point %33.9 #176
36.4 #2423-point attempt rate35.5 #260
35.5 #162Free throw rate39.4 #70
Possessions
16.9 #201Turnover rate15.7 #117
37.5 #12Offensive rebound rate30.8 #169
15.1 #82Assists per game14.6 #113
Defense
65.2 #7Points allowed83.2 #349
0.98 #14Points allowed per possession1.12 #265
46.8 #20Opponent effective FG%53.1 #272
31.4 #40Opponent 3-point %36.0 #304
15.1 #274Turnovers forced15.7 #240
76.1 #4Defensive rebound rate69.7 #178
5.5 #302Steals per game7.1 #120
3.6 #129Blocks per game2.7 #285
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Saint Mary's

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-3 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas A&M50–63
  • Lvs Santa Clara71–76
  • Wvs Gonzaga70–59
  • Wvs Santa Clara86–67
  • W@ Washington St83–67

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma St

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wichita St70–96
  • Wvs Davidson84–80
  • Lvs TCU88–95
  • Wvs Colorado92–83
  • Lvs Houston75–82

A week or more of rest.