Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site
LineNo line yet
Total—
 UWF | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects FSU 87–68 · win probability FSU 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it
UWF 0, FSU 0 · Before any stats
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UWF 0%, FSU 9%. Transfers in: UWF 2, FSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | — | FSU -19.0 | — |
| Total | — | 154.5 | — |
| Projected score | — | UWF 67.8 · FSU 86.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | FSU -11.2 | — |
| 1H total | 72.2 | — |
| 1H projected score | UWF 30.5 · FSU 41.7 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
West Florida has no 2025-26 games yet.
Florida St
33 games played
Straight up
18-15
55% wins
Against the spread
20-13
61% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-16
52% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @ UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs DUKE | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs NCSU | L 69-113 | +4.5 | L −39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 13 | @ SYR | L 86-94 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | vs WAKE | L 68-69 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | @ MIA | W 65-63 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SMU | L 80-83 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 28 | vs CAL | W 63-61 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | vs STAN | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 7 | @ ND | W 82-79 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 10 | vs UVA | L 58-61 | +8.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | @ VT | W 92-69 | +4.5 | W +27.5 | 156.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 17 | vs BC | W 80-72 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 21 | @ CLEM | W 70-65 | +8.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 24 | vsMIA | L 73-83 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | @ GT | W 80-71 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Mar 4 | @ PITT | W 75-74 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Mar 7 | vsSMU | W 91-78 | -1.5 | W +11.5 | 158.5 | O 169 |
| Mar 11 | vsCAL | W 95-89 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 184 |
| Mar 12 | vsDUKE | L 79-80 | +16.5 | W +15.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+12.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
−39.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
−3.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
+0.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
+12.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
+8.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−1.5
31
vsSTAN
STANW 88-80
+4.5
7
@ND
NDW 82-79
+4.5
10
vsUVA
UVAL 58-61
+5.5
14
@VT
VTW 92-69
+27.5
17
vsBC
BCW 80-72
−3.5
21
@CLEM
CLEMW 70-65
+13.5
24
vsMIA
MIAL 73-83
−7.5
28
@GT
GTW 80-71
+3.5
4
@PITT
PITTW 75-74
−0.5
7
vsSMU
SMUW 91-78
+11.5
11
vsCAL
CALW 95-89
+4.5
12
vsDUKE
DUKEL 79-80
+15.5
covered 20didn’t cover 13avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+14.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
+21.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
+19.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
−31.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
−35.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
−0.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−33.5
31
vsSTAN
STANW 88-80
+15.5
7
@ND
NDW 82-79
+6.5
10
vsUVA
UVAL 58-61
−36.5
14
@VT
VTW 92-69
+4.5
17
vsBC
BCW 80-72
+3.5
21
@CLEM
CLEMW 70-65
−10.5
24
vsMIA
MIAL 73-83
+3.5
28
@GT
GTW 80-71
−7.5
4
@PITT
PITTW 75-74
+4.5
7
vsSMU
SMUW 91-78
+10.5
11
vsCAL
CALW 95-89
+29.5
12
vsDUKE
DUKEL 79-80
+8.5
over 17under 16avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Florida St has the better starters
Position by position: West Florida 0, Florida St 2, even 3
West FloridaBetterFlorida St
G E. Wali TR5.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 9
→FSUBig
G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast
Score 90
G C. Monroe NEWNo Division I numbers yet
Not ranked
=No call
G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast
Score 73
F D. Dickerson TR5.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 63
→FSUSmall
F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast
Score 82
F I. Alexander NEWNo Division I numbers yet
Not ranked
=No call
F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 32
F T. Hall NEWNo Division I numbers yet
Not ranked
=No call
F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 68
West FloridaBetterFlorida St
UWF offense263rd of 366 · -8.1
→FSUBig
FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7
UWF defense341st of 366 · -9.1
→FSUBig
FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4
Backcourt-3.1 · 2 players
→FSUBig
Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.2 · 3 players
→FSUSmall
Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
=No call
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUWF betterFSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
West FloridaGuards
E. Wali26 min · TRC. MonroeNewJ. KingNewA. GodleyNewC. ValarezoNewR. FariasNew
Forwards
D. Dickerson14 min · TRI. AlexanderNewT. HallNewS. RutatikaNewJ. SamuelNewT. ThompsonNew
Florida StGuards
K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew
Forwards
S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew
Centers
M. PonderNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26, 0 games in · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
UWF—FSU80.4 #58Points per possession
UWF—FSU1.12 #101Pace (possessions)
UWF—FSU71.8 #41Shooting
Effective FG%
UWF—FSU52.3 #1323-point %
UWF—FSU33.1 #2263-point attempt rate
UWF—FSU50.6 #13Free throw rate
UWF—FSU34.7 #191Possessions
Turnover rate
UWF—FSU15.2 #80Offensive rebound rate
UWF—FSU30.8 #170Assists per game
UWF—FSU14.3 #124Defense
Points allowed
UWF—FSU77.9 #264Points allowed per possession
UWF—FSU1.08 #178Opponent effective FG%
UWF—FSU52.2 #226Opponent 3-point %
UWF—FSU34.6 #228Turnovers forced
UWF—FSU19.0 #51Defensive rebound rate
UWF—FSU65.9 #319Steals per game
UWF—FSU7.9 #44Blocks per game
UWF—FSU3.9 #84| UWF | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| — | Points per game | 80.4 #58 |
| — | Points per possession | 1.12 #101 |
| — | Pace (possessions) | 71.8 #41 |
| Shooting | ||
| — | Effective FG% | 52.3 #132 |
| — | 3-point % | 33.1 #226 |
| — | 3-point attempt rate | 50.6 #13 |
| — | Free throw rate | 34.7 #191 |
| Possessions | ||
| — | Turnover rate | 15.2 #80 |
| — | Offensive rebound rate | 30.8 #170 |
| — | Assists per game | 14.3 #124 |
| Defense | ||
| — | Points allowed | 77.9 #264 |
| — | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #178 |
| — | Opponent effective FG% | 52.2 #226 |
| — | Opponent 3-point % | 34.6 #228 |
| — | Turnovers forced | 19.0 #51 |
| — | Defensive rebound rate | 65.9 #319 |
| — | Steals per game | 7.9 #44 |
| — | Blocks per game | 3.9 #84 |
West Florida
0-0 in 2025-26 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- No games yet
A week or more of rest.
Florida St
18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Duke79–80
- Wvs California95–89
- Wvs SMU91–78
- W@ Pitt75–74
- W@ Georgia Tech80–71
A week or more of rest.