1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. UMES @ LONG
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Longwood Lancers

Joan Perry Brock Center · at Longwood
#364UMESMD Eastern
@
#218LONGLongwood
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMESThis seasonLONG
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LONG 80–64 · win probability LONG 92%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 144.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LONG has more of the edges

UMES 0, LONG 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LONGBig
LONG offense vs UMES defense
Offense 182nd of 366 against a defense 350th, on the model’s ratings
LONGBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UMES 32.4%, LONG 34.6%. Defensive: UMES 66.4%, LONG 72.3%
LONGBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UMES 29.4, LONG 41.4. Allowed: UMES 43.0, LONG 42.1
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UMES plays 65.8 a game (321st fastest), LONG 71.5 (54th). Faster games mean more points
LONGBig
UMES offense vs LONG defense
Offense 364th of 366 against a defense 242nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UMES has played the 240th-hardest schedule, LONG the 330th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LONGSmall
Home court
LONG at home. This season: LONG 0-0 at home, UMES 0-0 away
LONGSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UMES 23.7%, LONG 19.2%. Forced: UMES 18.0%, LONG 19.7%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UMES 47.8 and allows 50.8; LONG 49.7 and allows 53.8
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UMES 9%, LONG 28%. Transfers in: UMES 1, LONG 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
UMES hits 29.0% and allows 33.5%; LONG hits 31.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 33.5% and 34.8% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LONG -16.0—
Total—144.6—
Projected score—UMES 64.3 · LONG 80.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLONG -9.4—
1H total67.7—
1H projected scoreUMES 29.1 · LONG 38.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Longwood has the better starters

Position by position: MD Eastern 0, Longwood 1, even 4
MD EasternBetterLongwood
G I. Hall NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G M. Williams TR9.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.1 ast Score 65
F L. Beckwith1.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 1
LONGBig
G A. Billups7.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 47
F L. Gibson-Savadel TR2.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Benard7.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 44
F E. Berhanu NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G T. Robinson TR9.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.5 ast Score 64
F G. Tokody NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G E. Kelly2.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28
MD EasternBetterLongwood
UMES offense364th of 366 · -15.3
LONGSmall
LONG defense242nd of 366 · -6.4
UMES defense350th of 366 · -9.7
LONGBig
LONG offense182nd of 366 · -5.7
BackcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Backcourt-1.7 · 5 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 4 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUMES betterLONG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MD Eastern
Guards
I. HallNewE. JohnsonNewI. GriffinNewS. MooreNewB. GardnerNewV. EzehNew
Forwards
L. Beckwith17 minL. Gibson-Savadel7 min · TRE. BerhanuNewG. TokodyNewA. ColeNewD. Hall-JohnsonNew
Centers
E. OgohNew
Longwood
Guards
M. Williams24 min · TRA. Billups23 minJ. Benard20 minT. Robinson19 min · TRE. Kelly11 minB. Wesson2 min · TR
Forwards
D. Kauzonas10 min · TRL. Milosevic8 min · TRK. Musungay4 min · TRI. Kalala3 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMESLONG
Scoring
62.4 #360Points per game75.9 #143
0.94 #358Points per possession1.07 #215
65.8 #321Pace (possessions)71.5 #54
Shooting
47.8 #319Effective FG%49.7 #254
29.0 #3543-point %31.4 #309
33.5 #3093-point attempt rate34.8 #279
29.4 #321Free throw rate41.4 #40
Possessions
23.7 #365Turnover rate19.2 #327
32.4 #112Offensive rebound rate34.6 #57
13.0 #213Assists per game12.2 #270
Defense
71.5 #91Points allowed76.2 #223
1.09 #207Points allowed per possession1.06 #113
50.8 #142Opponent effective FG%53.8 #293
33.5 #156Opponent 3-point %33.8 #171
18.0 #95Turnovers forced19.7 #31
66.4 #311Defensive rebound rate72.3 #58
5.7 #274Steals per game8.3 #28
2.5 #302Blocks per game2.0 #347
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

MD Eastern

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 5-10 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs NC Central76–83
  • Lvs Delaware St56–57
  • Lvs NC Central73–77
  • Wvs SC State69–57
  • L@ Coppin St65–71

A week or more of rest.

Longwood

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Asheville82–85
  • Wvs Radford90–74
  • W@ Charleston So107–96
  • L@ Presbyterian65–72
  • Wvs SC Upstate82–75

A week or more of rest.