Longwood Lancers at James Madison Dukes: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 4:00 PM ETAtlantic Union Bank Center · at James Madison

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Longwood and James Madison
LONG	This season	JMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JMU 78–72 · win probability JMU 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JMU has more of the edges

LONG 3, JMU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

JMUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LONG 49.7 and allows 53.8; JMU 53.1 and allows 49.0

JMUBig

Three-pointers

LONG hits 31.4% and allows 33.8%; JMU hits 35.4% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 34.8% and 42.5% of their shots

LONGBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LONG 19.2%, JMU 17.3%. Forced: LONG 19.7%, JMU 12.8%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: LONG plays 71.5 a game (54th fastest), JMU 67.5 (253rd). Faster games mean more points

LONGSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LONG 34.6%, JMU 30.6%. Defensive: LONG 72.3%, JMU 70.5%

Context

Schedule so far

LONG has played the 330th-hardest schedule, JMU the 257th. A record against a soft schedule means less

JMUSmall

JMU offense vs LONG defense

Offense 181st of 366 against a defense 242nd, on the model’s ratings

JMUSmall

Home court

JMU at home. This season: JMU 0-0 at home, LONG 0-0 away

LONGSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LONG 41.4, JMU 35.9. Allowed: LONG 42.1, JMU 40.8

Even

LONG offense vs JMU defense

Offense 182nd of 366 against a defense 154th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LONG 28%, JMU 17%. Transfers in: LONG 6, JMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	JMU -5.9	—
Total	—	149.7	—
Projected score	—	LONG 71.9 · JMU 77.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JMU -3.4	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	LONG 33.3 · JMU 36.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LONG WLWWL	13-16	45%	6-8	—
JMU WWLWL	13-19	41%	5-9	—

Venue/role: LONG away; JMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LONG OUOOO	16-13	55%	13-16
JMU OUUOO	15-17	47%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LONG	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
JMU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Longwood

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ DSU	L76–81LO

James Madison

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	@ NCAT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LONG 1–0 JMULONG leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LONG 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2025-26	JMU 72 @ LONG 82	LONG +1.5	LONG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Longwood

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-13

55% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L W W L L L W L W L L W W L L W L W W L L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L W L L L L L L L L W L W W L W W W W L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1355%

U O O O O U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U U O U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@PITT	L 60-78	+14.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 12	vsJMU	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	vsBING	W 90-82	-15.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUMES	L 82-83	-17.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 23	@COLU	L 70-95	+3.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsSIE	L 63-70	+5.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsME	W 65-61	-5.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	@AMER	L 66-92	+5.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 6	@MORG	W 84-80	-5.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 13	vsDSU	L 76-81	-13.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 17	@WAKE	L 68-71	+24.5	W +21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 20	@NCCU	W 74-72	-3.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsWIN	W 82-70	+7.5	W +19.5	161.5	U 152
Jan 3	@HPU	L 67-80	+16.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 147
Jan 7	@UNCA	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsPRES	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	139.5	O 147
Jan 17	@RAD	L 83-85	+4.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsGWEB	W 91-56	-16.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsCHSO	W 81-79	-1.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 160
Jan 29	@UPST	L 60-65	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 125
Jan 31	vsHPU	L 59-71	+9.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 130
Feb 4	@GWEB	W 86-66	-12.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WIN	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 12	vsUNCA	L 74-79	-2.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsUPST	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@PRES	L 65-72	+2.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@CHSO	W 107-96	+2.5	W +13.5	154.5	O 203
Feb 28	vsRAD	W 90-74	-1.5	W +14.5	154.5	O 164
Mar 6	vsUNCA	L 82-85	-1.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−3.5

JMU

W 82-72

+11.5

BING

W 90-82

−7.5

UMES

L 82-83

−18.5

COLU

L 70-95

−21.5

SIE

L 63-70

−1.5

W 65-61

−1.5

AMER

L 66-92

−20.5

MORG

W 84-80

−1.5

DSU

L 76-81

−18.5

WAKE

L 68-71

+21.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−1.5

WIN

W 82-70

+19.5

HPU

L 67-80

+3.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−8.5

PRES

W 77-70

+3.5

RAD

L 83-85

+2.5

GWEB

W 91-56

+18.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+0.5

UPST

L 60-65

−6.5

HPU

L 59-71

−2.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+7.5

WIN

L 74-79

+5.5

UNCA

L 74-79

−7.5

UPST

W 82-75

+0.5

PRES

L 65-72

−4.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+13.5

RAD

W 90-74

+14.5

UNCA

L 82-85

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−7.5

JMU

W 82-72

+4.5

BING

W 90-82

+24.5

UMES

L 82-83

+26.5

COLU

L 70-95

+11.5

SIE

L 63-70

−12.5

W 65-61

−12.5

AMER

L 66-92

+9.5

MORG

W 84-80

+9.5

DSU

L 76-81

+17.5

WAKE

L 68-71

−24.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−0.5

WIN

W 82-70

−9.5

HPU

L 67-80

−13.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−15.5

PRES

W 77-70

+7.5

RAD

L 83-85

+10.5

GWEB

W 91-56

−8.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+3.5

UPST

L 60-65

−22.5

HPU

L 59-71

−26.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+4.5

WIN

L 74-79

−0.5

UNCA

L 74-79

+11.5

UPST

W 82-75

+9.5

PRES

L 65-72

−2.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+48.5

RAD

W 90-74

+9.5

UNCA

L 82-85

+26.5

over 16under 13avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

James Madison

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L W L L W W W L W W L L L W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

L L L L W W W L L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O O O O U O O U U U O O U U U O U O U U U U U O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AKR	L 71-85	+8.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 9	vsCOPP	W 84-70	-18.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@LONG	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	@LIU	L 79-88	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 18	vsTOW	W 81-75	+3.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	@FIU	W 80-72	+2.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 25	vsOMA	W 88-77	-1.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 165
Nov 29	@GMU	L 66-82	+12.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 3	vsNCCU	W 67-62	-14.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 129
Dec 6	vsNORF	W 68-67	-10.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 17	@ODU	L 68-77	-2.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 20	@GASO	L 92-96	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 188
Dec 29	@ARK	L 74-103	+23.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 177
Jan 3	@ARST	W 78-74	+10.5	W +14.5	158.5	U 152
Jan 7	vsMRSH	L 64-66	-1.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsODU	W 70-69	-6.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 15	@APP	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	133.5	O 145
Jan 17	@MRSH	L 72-77	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 149
Jan 22	vsUSA	L 83-90	-4.5	L −11.5	138.5	O 173
Jan 24	vsTXST	W 82-57	-5.5	W +19.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 29	@TROY	W 73-64	+9.5	W +18.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 31	@USM	L 65-73	+1.5	L −6.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsUL	L 61-64	-9.5	L −12.5	132.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsTOL	W 73-71	+1.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 12	vsGAST	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	vsAPP	W 69-58	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 18	@CCU	W 67-65	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 21	@GAST	W 80-65	-2.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 25	vsGASO	W 82-66	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 27	vsCCU	L 68-69	-6.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 4	vsUL	W 87-72	-6.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsUSM	L 80-86	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

−5.5

COPP

W 84-70

−4.5

LONG

L 72-82

−11.5

LIU

L 79-88

−5.5

TOW

W 81-75

+9.5

FIU

W 80-72

+10.5

OMA

W 88-77

+9.5

GMU

L 66-82

−3.5

NCCU

W 67-62

−9.5

NORF

W 68-67

−9.5

ODU

L 68-77

−11.5

GASO

L 92-96

−1.5

ARK

L 74-103

−5.5

ARST

W 78-74

+14.5

MRSH

L 64-66

−3.5

ODU

W 70-69

−5.5

APP

L 65-80

−12.5

MRSH

L 72-77

+1.5

USA

L 83-90

−11.5

TXST

W 82-57

+19.5

TROY

W 73-64

+18.5

USM

L 65-73

−6.5

L 61-64

−12.5

TOL

W 73-71

+3.5

GAST

W 81-79

−3.5

APP

W 69-58

+12.5

CCU

W 67-65

+0.5

GAST

W 80-65

+12.5

GASO

W 82-66

+10.5

CCU

L 68-69

−7.5

W 87-72

+8.5

USM

L 80-86

−8.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

+2.5

COPP

W 84-70

+12.5

LONG

L 72-82

+4.5

LIU

L 79-88

+19.5

TOW

W 81-75

+15.5

FIU

W 80-72

−3.5

OMA

W 88-77

+12.5

GMU

L 66-82

+6.5

NCCU

W 67-62

−14.5

NORF

W 68-67

−3.5

ODU

L 68-77

−3.5

GASO

L 92-96

+34.5

ARK

L 74-103

+17.5

ARST

W 78-74

−6.5

MRSH

L 64-66

−22.5

ODU

W 70-69

−8.5

APP

L 65-80

+11.5

MRSH

L 72-77

−0.5

USA

L 83-90

+34.5

TXST

W 82-57

−4.5

TROY

W 73-64

−10.5

USM

L 65-73

−5.5

L 61-64

−7.5

TOL

W 73-71

−9.5

GAST

W 81-79

+15.5

APP

W 69-58

−7.5

CCU

W 67-65

−8.5

GAST

W 80-65

+2.5

GASO

W 82-66

−5.5

CCU

L 68-69

−4.5

W 87-72

+24.5

USM

L 80-86

+22.5

over 15under 17avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Longwood 1, James Madison 1, even 3

LongwoodBetterJames Madison

G M. Williams TR9.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.1 ast Score 65

LONGSmall

G G. Lattimore TR15.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 48

G A. Billups7.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 47

JMUSmall

G A. Myers TR11.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 1 ast Score 73

G J. Benard7.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 44

No call

G C. Reilly TR3 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

G T. Robinson TR9.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.5 ast Score 64

Even

F J. Hogarth TR10.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61

G E. Kelly2.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28

Even

F P. Fowler6.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25

LongwoodBetterJames Madison

LONG offense182nd of 366 · -5.7

Even

JMU defense154th of 366 · -3.4

LONG defense242nd of 366 · -6.4

JMUSmall

JMU offense181st of 366 · -5.7

Backcourt-1.7 · 5 players

Even

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players

Bench-1.7 · 5 players

LONGSmall

Bench-3.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLONG betterJMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Longwood

Guards

M. Williams24 min · TRA. Billups23 minJ. Benard20 minT. Robinson19 min · TRE. Kelly11 minB. Wesson2 min · TR

Forwards

D. Kauzonas10 min · TRL. Milosevic8 min · TRK. Musungay4 min · TRI. Kalala3 min

James Madison

Guards

G. Lattimore37 min · TRA. Myers29 min · TRC. Reilly23 min · TRK. Windham13 min · TRP. Jones11 minB. Lee5 min · TR

Forwards

J. Hogarth25 min · TRP. Fowler23 minG. Sundra18 min · TRM. Curtis16 min · TRJ. BrownNewA. EvansNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LONG75.9 #143

JMU74.7 #172

Points per possession

LONG1.07 #215

JMU1.10 #128

Pace (possessions)

LONG71.5 #54

JMU67.5 #253

Shooting

Effective FG%

LONG49.7 #254

JMU53.1 #97

3-point %

LONG31.4 #309

JMU35.4 #94

3-point attempt rate

LONG34.8 #279

JMU42.5 #128

Free throw rate

LONG41.4 #40

JMU35.9 #153

Possessions

Turnover rate

LONG19.2 #327

JMU17.3 #225

Offensive rebound rate

LONG34.6 #57

JMU30.6 #175

Assists per game

LONG12.2 #270

JMU12.5 #252

Defense

Points allowed

LONG76.2 #223

JMU74.4 #170

Points allowed per possession

LONG1.06 #113

JMU1.10 #226

Opponent effective FG%

LONG53.8 #293

JMU49.0 #66

Opponent 3-point %

LONG33.8 #171

JMU32.7 #101

Turnovers forced

LONG19.7 #31

JMU12.8 #359

Defensive rebound rate

LONG72.3 #58

JMU70.5 #134

Steals per game

LONG8.3 #28

JMU5.1 #327

Blocks per game

LONG2.0 #347

JMU4.1 #68

LONG		JMU
Scoring
75.9 #143	Points per game	74.7 #172
1.07 #215	Points per possession	1.10 #128
71.5 #54	Pace (possessions)	67.5 #253
Shooting
49.7 #254	Effective FG%	53.1 #97
31.4 #309	3-point %	35.4 #94
34.8 #279	3-point attempt rate	42.5 #128
41.4 #40	Free throw rate	35.9 #153
Possessions
19.2 #327	Turnover rate	17.3 #225
34.6 #57	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #175
12.2 #270	Assists per game	12.5 #252
Defense
76.2 #223	Points allowed	74.4 #170
1.06 #113	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #226
53.8 #293	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #66
33.8 #171	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #101
19.7 #31	Turnovers forced	12.8 #359
72.3 #58	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #134
8.3 #28	Steals per game	5.1 #327
2.0 #347	Blocks per game	4.1 #68

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Longwood

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Asheville82–85
Wvs Radford90–74
W@ Charleston So107–96
L@ Presbyterian65–72
Wvs SC Upstate82–75

A week or more of rest.

James Madison

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss80–86
Wvs Louisiana87–72
Lvs Coastal68–69
Wvs GA Southern82–66
W@ Georgia St80–65

A week or more of rest.

Longwood Lancers at James Madison Dukes

What could decide it: JMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Longwood

James Madison

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Longwood

James Madison