Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at North Texas Mean Green: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 4:00 PM ETThe Super Pit · at North Texas

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Miss Valley St and North Texas
MVSU	This season	UNT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNT 86–54 · win probability UNT 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNT has more of the edges

MVSU 0, UNT 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNTBig

MVSU offense vs UNT defense

Offense 366th of 366 against a defense 66th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MVSU has played the 327th-hardest schedule, UNT the 121st. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNTBig

UNT offense vs MVSU defense

Offense 165th of 366 against a defense 366th, on the model’s ratings

UNTBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MVSU 21.9%, UNT 16.8%. Forced: MVSU 17.1%, UNT 21.3%

UNTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MVSU 26.4%, UNT 33.5%. Defensive: MVSU 64.5%, UNT 67.6%

UNTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MVSU 45.2 and allows 55.5; UNT 46.0 and allows 48.5

UNTBig

Three-pointers

MVSU hits 29.5% and allows 37.2%; UNT hits 28.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 30.2% and 32.4% of their shots

UNTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MVSU 0%, UNT 45%. Transfers in: MVSU 2, UNT 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UNTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MVSU 33.9, UNT 39.6. Allowed: MVSU 50.8, UNT 45.1

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MVSU plays 70.2 a game (111th fastest), UNT 67.6 (245th). Faster games mean more points

UNTSmall

Home court

UNT at home. This season: UNT 0-0 at home, MVSU 0-0 away

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNT -31.8	—
Total	—	139.7	—
Projected score	—	MVSU 54 · UNT 85.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNT -18.8	—
1H total	65.4	—
1H projected score	MVSU 23.3 · UNT 42.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MVSU LWWWL	16-16	50%	11-8	—
UNT LWLWW	17-14	55%	6-9	—

Venue/role: MVSU away; UNT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MVSU OUUOU	14-18	44%	2-30
UNT OUUOO	14-17	45%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MVSU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
UNT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miss Valley St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ CONN	L53–87WU
Dec 15	@ MSST	L52–82WO

North Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs TXST	W67–63LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MVSU 0–2 UNTUNT leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · UNT has won the last 2 meetings · MVSU 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 18, 2024-25	MVSU 42 @ UNT 83	UNT -36.5	UNT W
Dec 2, 2023-24	MVSU 48 @ UNT 79	UNT -28.5	UNT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miss Valley St

32 games played

Straight up

2-30

6% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-306%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L W W W W W L L L L W W L L W L W L W W L L W L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O U O U O O U U O U U O O U U U U U O O O U U O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UAB	L 55-106	+34.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 161
Nov 7	@MUR	L 60-108	+38.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 12	@HAW	L 56-88	+41.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsUTU	L 75-81	+26.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsMAN	L 73-80	+20.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 22	@CSUB	L 70-86	+21.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@TA&M	L 84-120	+42.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 204
Dec 3	@ULM	L 52-66	+9.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 8	@KSU	L 49-108	+38.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 16	vsTAR	L 64-88	+17.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 152
Dec 19	@FSU	L 49-96	+40.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 145
Dec 22	@WVU	L 51-86	+42.5	W +7.5	137.5	U 137
Dec 29	@OU	L 69-93	+44.5	W +20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsALST	L 69-89	+13.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 5	vsAAMU	L 51-71	+10.5	L −9.5	135.5	U 122
Jan 10	@PV	L 69-70	+18.5	W +17.5	152.5	U 139
Jan 12	@TXSO	L 51-84	+12.5	L −20.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 17	vsBCU	L 63-79	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Jan 19	vsFAMU	L 48-62	+11.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 110
Jan 28	@SOU	L 69-80	+20.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsUAPB	L 70-78	+10.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsJKST	L 81-97	+8.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 178
Feb 9	vsALCN	L 66-74	+5.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 140
Feb 14	@AAMU	L 65-72	+15.5	W +8.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 16	@ALST	L 55-92	+16.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 19	vsPV	L 62-72	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsTXSO	W 72-71	+11.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 23	@GRAM	L 62-83	+16.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 28	@UAPB	W 70-69	+14.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 139
Mar 3	@ALCN	L 64-67	+9.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 131
Mar 5	@JKST	L 77-85	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 9	vsGRAM	L 52-77	+13.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

−16.5

MUR

L 60-108

−9.5

HAW

L 56-88

+9.5

UTU

L 75-81

+20.5

MAN

L 73-80

+13.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+5.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+6.5

ULM

L 52-66

−4.5

KSU

L 49-108

−20.5

TAR

L 64-88

−6.5

FSU

L 49-96

−6.5

WVU

L 51-86

+7.5

L 69-93

+20.5

ALST

L 69-89

−6.5

AAMU

L 51-71

−9.5

L 69-70

+17.5

TXSO

L 51-84

−20.5

BCU

L 63-79

+0.5

FAMU

L 48-62

−2.5

SOU

L 69-80

+9.5

UAPB

L 70-78

+2.5

JKST

L 81-97

−7.5

ALCN

L 66-74

−2.5

AAMU

L 65-72

+8.5

ALST

L 55-92

−20.5

L 62-72

−1.5

TXSO

W 72-71

+12.5

GRAM

L 62-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 70-69

+15.5

ALCN

L 64-67

+6.5

JKST

L 77-85

+3.5

GRAM

L 52-77

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

+15.5

MUR

L 60-108

+8.5

HAW

L 56-88

−7.5

UTU

L 75-81

+10.5

MAN

L 73-80

−1.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+17.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+49.5

ULM

L 52-66

−31.5

KSU

L 49-108

−3.5

TAR

L 64-88

+9.5

FSU

L 49-96

−19.5

WVU

L 51-86

−0.5

L 69-93

+8.5

ALST

L 69-89

+13.5

AAMU

L 51-71

−13.5

L 69-70

−13.5

TXSO

L 51-84

−7.5

BCU

L 63-79

−2.5

FAMU

L 48-62

−29.5

SOU

L 69-80

+7.5

UAPB

L 70-78

+4.5

JKST

L 81-97

+34.5

ALCN

L 66-74

−0.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−1.5

ALST

L 55-92

+4.5

L 62-72

−19.5

TXSO

W 72-71

−0.5

GRAM

L 62-83

+8.5

UAPB

W 70-69

−8.5

ALCN

L 64-67

−8.5

JKST

L 77-85

+17.5

GRAM

L 52-77

−6.5

over 14under 18avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Texas

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

W W L L W W W W L W L L W L L W W L L L L W W W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

W W W L W L L L L W W W W W L W W L L L L W W W L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1745%

U U U O U O U O U U U U O U O U O U O U O U O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsNWST	W 80-53	-11.5	W +15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 9	vsLUC	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@ORST	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 14	@SMC	L 49-80	+14.5	L −16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 20	vsCARK	W 74-56	-16.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsEWU	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsPV	W 72-69	-16.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 141
Dec 2	vsHCU	W 77-75	-11.5	L −9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 7	vsTCU	L 55-65	+9.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 14	@USA	W 58-57	+1.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 115
Dec 17	vsSCU	L 60-63	+12.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 31	@MEM	L 48-57	+9.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 4	vsTLSA	W 72-67	+2.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 7	vsUSF	L 70-74	+4.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 11	@WICH	L 67-78	+8.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 145
Jan 18	@TULN	W 71-63	+1.5	W +9.5	137.5	U 134
Jan 21	vsUTSA	W 81-62	-15.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 23	vsECU	L 59-63	-10.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 122
Jan 28	@TLSA	L 66-82	+8.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 148
Jan 31	vsUAB	L 68-72	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 140
Feb 4	@RICE	L 83-86	-1.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 169
Feb 7	@UTSA	W 81-58	-10.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsMEM	W 76-69	+2.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 15	@TEM	W 65-62	+2.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 127
Feb 19	vsTULN	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	137.5	O 148
Feb 22	vsFAU	W 73-72	-2.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Feb 25	@CLT	L 79-80	-2.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 159
Mar 1	@UAB	W 62-58	+4.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 120
Mar 4	vsRICE	W 62-58	-6.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 120
Mar 12	vsFAU	W 74-70	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 144
Mar 13	vsTLSA	L 84-90	+7.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

+15.5

LUC

W 64-62

+3.5

ORST

L 64-66

+1.5

SMC

L 49-80

−16.5

CARK

W 74-56

+1.5

EWU

W 79-71

−4.5

W 72-69

−13.5

HCU

W 77-75

−9.5

TCU

L 55-65

−0.5

USA

W 58-57

+2.5

SCU

L 60-63

+9.5

MEM

L 48-57

+0.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+7.5

USF

L 70-74

+0.5

WICH

L 67-78

−2.5

TULN

W 71-63

+9.5

UTSA

W 81-62

+3.5

ECU

L 59-63

−14.5

TLSA

L 66-82

−7.5

UAB

L 68-72

−5.5

RICE

L 83-86

−4.5

UTSA

W 81-58

+12.5

MEM

W 76-69

+9.5

TEM

W 65-62

+5.5

TULN

L 71-77

−12.5

FAU

W 73-72

−1.5

CLT

L 79-80

−3.5

UAB

W 62-58

+8.5

RICE

W 62-58

−2.5

FAU

W 74-70

+2.5

TLSA

L 84-90

+1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

−4.5

LUC

W 64-62

−12.5

ORST

L 64-66

−4.5

SMC

L 49-80

+0.5

CARK

W 74-56

−4.5

EWU

W 79-71

+8.5

W 72-69

−0.5

HCU

W 77-75

+24.5

TCU

L 55-65

−15.5

USA

W 58-57

−20.5

SCU

L 60-63

−16.5

MEM

L 48-57

−32.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+0.5

USF

L 70-74

−3.5

WICH

L 67-78

+9.5

TULN

W 71-63

−3.5

UTSA

W 81-62

+4.5

ECU

L 59-63

−12.5

TLSA

L 66-82

+6.5

UAB

L 68-72

−1.5

RICE

L 83-86

+34.5

UTSA

W 81-58

−2.5

MEM

W 76-69

+6.5

TEM

W 65-62

−8.5

TULN

L 71-77

+10.5

FAU

W 73-72

+4.5

CLT

L 79-80

+25.5

UAB

W 62-58

−22.5

RICE

W 62-58

−17.5

FAU

W 74-70

+7.5

TLSA

L 84-90

+32.5

over 14under 17avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Miss Valley St 0, North Texas 1, even 4

Miss Valley StBetterNorth Texas

G T. Foster TR5.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20

UNTBig

G J. Stevenson17.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 94

G T. James TR0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Chavis TR10.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 53

G E. Pippins NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G C. Franklin6.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47

G A. Abrams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G A. Amkou TR5.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 74

F T. Williams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F R. Robinson7.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 65

Miss Valley StBetterNorth Texas

MVSU offense366th of 366 · -17.5

UNTBig

UNT defense66th of 366 · +1.0

MVSU defense366th of 366 · -14.3

UNTBig

UNT offense165th of 366 · -5.0

Backcourt-2.1 · 4 players

UNTBig

Backcourt+2.8 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.7 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestMVSU betterUNT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Miss Valley St

Guards

T. Foster20 min · TRT. James3 min · TRE. PippinsNewA. AbramsNewM. AngloNewC. CameronNew

Forwards

T. WilliamsNewQ. PangNewG. MartinezNewH. WilsonNewM. McCoyNew

Centers

T. WuNew

North Texas

Guards

J. Stevenson33 minC. Chavis27 min · TRC. Franklin25 minA. Amkou12 min · TRE. Horton9 minB. BarnesNew

Forwards

R. Robinson23 minM. Holmes6 min · TRO. NdourNewT. CrumbleNewF. KalajzicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MVSU63.2 #356

UNT69.1 #298

Points per possession

MVSU0.90 #364

UNT1.02 #302

Pace (possessions)

MVSU70.2 #111

UNT67.6 #245

Shooting

Effective FG%

MVSU45.2 #359

UNT46.0 #349

3-point %

MVSU29.5 #346

UNT28.7 #358

3-point attempt rate

MVSU30.2 #351

UNT32.4 #325

Free throw rate

MVSU33.9 #215

UNT39.6 #63

Possessions

Turnover rate

MVSU21.9 #361

UNT16.8 #182

Offensive rebound rate

MVSU26.4 #313

UNT33.5 #76

Assists per game

MVSU11.9 #296

UNT12.1 #282

Defense

Points allowed

MVSU83.7 #353

UNT68.2 #35

Points allowed per possession

MVSU1.20 #355

UNT1.01 #33

Opponent effective FG%

MVSU55.5 #341

UNT48.5 #47

Opponent 3-point %

MVSU37.2 #346

UNT30.9 #32

Turnovers forced

MVSU17.1 #142

UNT21.3 #6

Defensive rebound rate

MVSU64.5 #346

UNT67.6 #278

Steals per game

MVSU7.1 #119

UNT8.9 #11

Blocks per game

MVSU2.6 #300

UNT4.3 #51

MVSU		UNT
Scoring
63.2 #356	Points per game	69.1 #298
0.90 #364	Points per possession	1.02 #302
70.2 #111	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #245
Shooting
45.2 #359	Effective FG%	46.0 #349
29.5 #346	3-point %	28.7 #358
30.2 #351	3-point attempt rate	32.4 #325
33.9 #215	Free throw rate	39.6 #63
Possessions
21.9 #361	Turnover rate	16.8 #182
26.4 #313	Offensive rebound rate	33.5 #76
11.9 #296	Assists per game	12.1 #282
Defense
83.7 #353	Points allowed	68.2 #35
1.20 #355	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #33
55.5 #341	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #47
37.2 #346	Opponent 3-point %	30.9 #32
17.1 #142	Turnovers forced	21.3 #6
64.5 #346	Defensive rebound rate	67.6 #278
7.1 #119	Steals per game	8.9 #11
2.6 #300	Blocks per game	4.3 #51

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miss Valley St

2-30 in 2025-26 overall · 2-17 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Grambling52–77
L@ Jackson St77–85
L@ Alcorn St64–67
W@ AR-Pine Bluff70–69
L@ Grambling62–83

A week or more of rest.

North Texas

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulsa84–90
Wvs FAU74–70
Wvs Rice62–58
W@ UAB62–58
L@ Charlotte79–80

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at North Texas Mean Green

What could decide it: UNT has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Miss Valley St

North Texas

North Texas has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Miss Valley St

North Texas