1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 6
  3. CCSU vs BRWN
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 6

Central Connecticut Blue Devils vs Brown Bears

MassMutual Center · Neutral site
#337CCSUC Connecticut
vs
#156BRWNBrown
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CCSUThis seasonBRWN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BRWN 74–64 · win probability BRWN 80%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 137.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CCSU 3, BRWN 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BRWNBig
CCSU offense vs BRWN defense
Offense 353rd of 366 against a defense 124th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CCSU has played the 358th-hardest schedule, BRWN the 176th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CCSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CCSU 31.2, BRWN 28.1. Allowed: CCSU 26.9, BRWN 37.6
CCSUBig
Three-pointers
CCSU hits 35.8% and allows 33.4%; BRWN hits 30.3% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 34.9% and 36.3% of their shots
CCSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CCSU 51.6 and allows 50.2; BRWN 48.6 and allows 51.3
BRWNSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CCSU 55%, BRWN 100%. Transfers in: CCSU 0, BRWN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
BRWNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CCSU 16.3%, BRWN 19.4%. Forced: CCSU 14.0%, BRWN 18.8%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: CCSU plays 65.5 a game (329th fastest), BRWN 68.0 (229th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CCSU 27.5%, BRWN 29.0%. Defensive: CCSU 69.6%, BRWN 70.0%
Even
BRWN offense vs CCSU defense
Offense 220th of 366 against a defense 247th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BRWN -9.8—
Total—137.6—
Projected score—CCSU 63.9 · BRWN 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBRWN -5.7—
1H total64.4—
1H projected scoreCCSU 29.4 · BRWN 35.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Brown has the better starters

Position by position: C Connecticut 0, Brown 3, even 2
C ConnecticutBetterBrown
G J. Jones4.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 4
BRWNBig
G J. Jenkins8.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 47
G V. Payne6.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 16
Even
G A. Uchidiuno9.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 20
G E. Parker2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 0
BRWNSmall
G M. Wrisby-Jefferson4.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 25
G R. Jones3.8 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
Even
G D. Rochester5.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 27
F D. James3.2 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 13
BRWNBig
F N. Dabo7.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 72
C ConnecticutBetterBrown
CCSU offense353rd of 366 · -13.2
BRWNBig
BRWN defense124th of 366 · -2.2
CCSU defense247th of 366 · -6.5
Even
BRWN offense220th of 366 · -6.7
Backcourt-10.6 · 4 players
BRWNBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player
BRWNSmall
Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player
Bench-2.0 · 2 players
Even
Bench-2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCCSU betterBRWN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Connecticut
Guards
J. Jones30 minV. Payne24 minE. Parker14 minR. Jones10 minA. Reynolds10 minR. LaurentNew
Forwards
D. James13 minJ. Mott8 minB. JacksonNewJ. ErvinNewR. TibbyNewC. LangdonNew
Brown
Guards
J. Jenkins31 minA. Uchidiuno26 minM. Wrisby-Jefferson23 minD. Rochester22 minI. Langham21 minB. Loughlin18 min
Forwards
N. Dabo24 minC. O'Sullivan11 minW. DeGraaf8 minE. JamgbadiNewL. JonesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CCSUBRWN
Scoring
70.6 #272Points per game67.2 #330
1.08 #192Points per possession0.98 #338
65.5 #329Pace (possessions)68.0 #229
Shooting
51.6 #165Effective FG%48.6 #299
35.8 #693-point %30.3 #338
34.9 #2783-point attempt rate36.3 #244
31.2 #276Free throw rate28.1 #342
Possessions
16.3 #154Turnover rate19.4 #334
27.5 #281Offensive rebound rate29.0 #236
12.8 #229Assists per game14.8 #99
Defense
72.0 #105Points allowed72.4 #115
1.10 #218Points allowed per possession1.07 #134
50.2 #113Opponent effective FG%51.3 #176
33.4 #146Opponent 3-point %33.5 #157
14.0 #338Turnovers forced18.8 #57
69.6 #179Defensive rebound rate70.0 #164
5.4 #311Steals per game7.5 #82
3.9 #83Blocks per game3.8 #104
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Connecticut

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wagner60–70
  • Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves69–64
  • Wvs Mercyhurst80–78
  • L@ Chicago St51–70
  • Wvs Le Moyne78–77

A week or more of rest.

Brown

7-18 in 2025-26 overall · 3-11 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Penn61–82
  • L@ Cornell80–86
  • L@ Columbia62–80
  • Wvs Princeton80–71
  • W@ Dartmouth79–76

A week or more of rest.