Davidson Wildcats at Charleston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 3:30 PM ETTD Arena · at Charleston

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Davidson and Charleston
DAV	This season	COFC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COFC 74–72 · win probability COFC 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAV has more of the edges

DAV 3, COFC 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

COFCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DAV 31.0, COFC 41.2. Allowed: DAV 37.1, COFC 26.1

DAVBig

Three-pointers

DAV hits 35.4% and allows 32.6%; COFC hits 30.6% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 44.5% and 38.1% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

DAV has played the 91st-hardest schedule, COFC the 200th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DAVSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DAV 15.8%, COFC 15.7%. Forced: DAV 17.5%, COFC 14.8%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: DAV plays 65.0 a game (347th fastest), COFC 68.8 (192nd). Faster games mean more points

COFCSmall

Home court

COFC at home. This season: COFC 0-0 at home, DAV 0-0 away

DAVSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DAV 49%, COFC 21%. Transfers in: DAV 2, COFC 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DAV 28.1%, COFC 29.9%. Defensive: DAV 70.0%, COFC 67.7%

Even

COFC offense vs DAV defense

Offense 108th of 366 against a defense 84th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DAV 52.6 and allows 50.6; COFC 50.5 and allows 49.2

Even

DAV offense vs COFC defense

Offense 149th of 366 against a defense 143rd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	COFC -1.7	—
Total	—	146.0	—
Projected score	—	DAV 72.1 · COFC 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COFC -0.9	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	DAV 33.7 · COFC 34.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAV LWLLW	14-18	44%	8-4	—
COFC WWWWL	18-13	58%	7-7	—

Venue/role: DAV away; COFC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAV OUUUO	14-18	44%	18-14
COFC UUOOU	13-18	42%	20-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAV	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
COFC	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Davidson

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs CAM	W62–50LU
Dec 12	vs UPST	W62–59LU

Charleston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	@ BEL	L73–96LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DAV 0–1 COFCCOFC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DAV 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 17, 2022-23	DAV 66 @ COFC 89	COFC -3.5	COFC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Davidson

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W L W W L W L L L W W L W W L L W L W L W L W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W L W L W L L W L L L W W L W W L L W L W L L L W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O U O U O O O U U U O O U O U O U U U U O O U U U U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsWSU	W 85-69	-4.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 11	@CLT	W 62-55	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 117
Nov 15	vsBGSU	W 91-87	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 21	vsBC	W 59-49	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 108
Nov 23	vsUSU	L 60-94	+9.5	L −24.5	147.5	O 154
Nov 28	vsNCAT	W 90-74	-13.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 4	vsCIT	W 79-63	-18.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 7	vsSMC	L 61-70	+8.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 13	vsMERC	W 80-47	-11.5	W +21.5	132.5	U 127
Dec 18	vsTEM	L 63-68	-5.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 22	@KU	L 61-90	+14.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 151
Dec 30	vsDUQ	L 83-89	-2.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 3	@JOES	W 62-56	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 7	@LUC	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	136.5	O 143
Jan 10	vsURI	L 45-70	-2.5	L −27.5	134.5	U 115
Jan 14	@GW	W 84-79	+9.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 21	vsFOR	W 68-63	-4.5	W +0.5	135.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsVCU	L 69-75	+5.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 28	@GMU	L 52-60	+6.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 112
Jan 31	@RICH	W 79-54	+1.5	W +26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 3	vsSLU	L 82-91	+8.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 173
Feb 6	vsLUC	W 84-64	-9.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 148
Feb 15	@DAY	L 59-70	+5.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 18	vsRICH	W 65-63	-5.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	@FOR	L 59-63	-1.5	L −5.5	131.5	U 122
Feb 25	@DUQ	W 67-56	+3.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 123
Mar 1	vsLAS	W 71-64	-10.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 135
Mar 4	vsJOES	L 67-70	-1.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 7	@SBU	W 68-63	+4.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 12	vsLUC	W 64-59	-5.5	L −0.5	132.5	U 123
Mar 13	vsJOES	L 58-70	+2.5	L −9.5	133.5	U 128
Mar 17	@OKST	L 80-84	+6.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+11.5

CLT

W 62-55

+8.5

BGSU

W 91-87

−0.5

W 59-49

+11.5

USU

L 60-94

−24.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+2.5

CIT

W 79-63

−2.5

SMC

L 61-70

−0.5

MERC

W 80-47

+21.5

TEM

L 63-68

−10.5

L 61-90

−14.5

DUQ

L 83-89

−8.5

JOES

W 62-56

+4.5

LUC

W 79-64

+13.5

URI

L 45-70

−27.5

W 84-79

+14.5

FOR

W 68-63

+0.5

VCU

L 69-75

−0.5

GMU

L 52-60

−1.5

RICH

W 79-54

+26.5

SLU

L 82-91

−0.5

LUC

W 84-64

+10.5

DAY

L 59-70

−5.5

RICH

W 65-63

−3.5

FOR

L 59-63

−5.5

DUQ

W 67-56

+14.5

LAS

W 71-64

−3.5

JOES

L 67-70

−4.5

SBU

W 68-63

+9.5

LUC

W 64-59

−0.5

JOES

L 58-70

−9.5

OKST

L 80-84

+2.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+0.5

CLT

W 62-55

−26.5

BGSU

W 91-87

+33.5

W 59-49

−32.5

USU

L 60-94

+6.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+18.5

CIT

W 79-63

+4.5

SMC

L 61-70

−6.5

MERC

W 80-47

−5.5

TEM

L 63-68

−10.5

L 61-90

+11.5

DUQ

L 83-89

+21.5

JOES

W 62-56

−21.5

LUC

W 79-64

+6.5

URI

L 45-70

−19.5

W 84-79

+12.5

FOR

W 68-63

−4.5

VCU

L 69-75

−4.5

GMU

L 52-60

−22.5

RICH

W 79-54

−7.5

SLU

L 82-91

+21.5

LUC

W 84-64

+7.5

DAY

L 59-70

−11.5

RICH

W 65-63

−13.5

FOR

L 59-63

−9.5

DUQ

W 67-56

−19.5

LAS

W 71-64

+1.5

JOES

L 67-70

+0.5

SBU

W 68-63

−10.5

LUC

W 64-59

−9.5

JOES

L 58-70

−5.5

OKST

L 80-84

+9.5

over 14under 18avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Charleston

31 games played

Straight up

20-11

65% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1165%

L L W L W L W L L W W W W W W W L L W W W W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L L W L W L W L W W L W L W W L L L W W W W W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1842%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U U O U U U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@LIB	L 75-90	+9.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsFAU	L 77-94	+5.5	L −11.5	156.5	O 171
Nov 14	vsSCST	W 88-61	-18.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 17	vsDRKE	L 62-71	-7.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 133
Nov 21	vsMASS	W 69-65	-3.5	W +0.5	161.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsYALE	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 137
Nov 24	vsEVAN	W 78-59	-4.5	W +14.5	141.5	U 137
Nov 30	vsBEL	L 73-96	+2.5	L −20.5	152.5	O 169
Dec 10	@USF	L 75-81	+13.5	W +7.5	160.5	U 156
Dec 14	vsCLT	W 74-67	-5.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 141
Dec 17	vsCIT	W 82-78	-17.5	L −13.5	146.5	O 160
Dec 21	@NKU	W 85-74	+5.5	W +16.5	153.5	O 159
Dec 29	vsDREX	W 72-63	-9.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 135
Dec 31	@ELON	W 85-81	+2.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 166
Jan 5	vsW&M	W 88-79	-2.5	W +6.5	165.5	O 167
Jan 10	vsHAMP	W 74-70	-9.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 144
Jan 15	@TOW	L 52-61	+3.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 17	@STBK	L 106-112	-4.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 218
Jan 22	vsCAM	W 87-83	-3.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsELON	W 80-70	-3.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 150
Jan 29	@HOF	W 66-64	+2.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 31	@NE	W 89-84	-3.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 173
Feb 5	vsNCAT	W 78-62	-11.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 140
Feb 9	vsUNCW	L 64-76	-1.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 12	vsHOF	L 62-66	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 15	@CAM	W 62-57	+3.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 119
Feb 19	@NCAT	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 135
Feb 21	vsMONM	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 26	@HAMP	W 85-71	-5.5	W +8.5	139.5	O 156
Mar 1	@UNCW	W 79-76	+5.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 8	vsTOW	L 56-81	-3.5	L −28.5	138.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

−5.5

FAU

L 77-94

−11.5

SCST

W 88-61

+8.5

DRKE

L 62-71

−16.5

MASS

W 69-65

+0.5

YALE

L 63-74

−4.5

EVAN

W 78-59

+14.5

BEL

L 73-96

−20.5

USF

L 75-81

+7.5

CLT

W 74-67

+1.5

CIT

W 82-78

−13.5

NKU

W 85-74

+16.5

DREX

W 72-63

−0.5

ELON

W 85-81

+6.5

W&M

W 88-79

+6.5

HAMP

W 74-70

−5.5

TOW

L 52-61

−5.5

STBK

L 106-112

−10.5

CAM

W 87-83

+0.5

ELON

W 80-70

+6.5

HOF

W 66-64

+4.5

W 89-84

+1.5

NCAT

W 78-62

+4.5

UNCW

L 64-76

−13.5

HOF

L 62-66

−5.5

CAM

W 62-57

+8.5

NCAT

W 74-61

+8.5

MONM

W 74-63

+6.5

HAMP

W 85-71

+8.5

UNCW

W 79-76

+8.5

TOW

L 56-81

−28.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

+19.5

FAU

L 77-94

+14.5

SCST

W 88-61

−7.5

DRKE

L 62-71

−20.5

MASS

W 69-65

−27.5

YALE

L 63-74

−11.5

EVAN

W 78-59

−4.5

BEL

L 73-96

+16.5

USF

L 75-81

−4.5

CLT

W 74-67

+0.5

CIT

W 82-78

+13.5

NKU

W 85-74

+5.5

DREX

W 72-63

−7.5

ELON

W 85-81

+10.5

W&M

W 88-79

+1.5

HAMP

W 74-70

−1.5

TOW

L 52-61

−30.5

STBK

L 106-112

+75.5

CAM

W 87-83

+9.5

ELON

W 80-70

−9.5

HOF

W 66-64

−18.5

W 89-84

+11.5

NCAT

W 78-62

−15.5

UNCW

L 64-76

−8.5

HOF

L 62-66

−18.5

CAM

W 62-57

−40.5

NCAT

W 74-61

−12.5

MONM

W 74-63

−12.5

HAMP

W 85-71

+16.5

UNCW

W 79-76

+8.5

TOW

L 56-81

−1.5

over 13under 18avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Charleston has the better starters

Position by position: Davidson 1, Charleston 3, even 1

DavidsonBetterCharleston

G N. Janowski TR16.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81

COFCSmall

G T. Johnson TR19.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 5 ast Score 96

G S. Brown7.9 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 33

COFCBig

G B. Bradford TR13.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 77

G N. Coval6.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49

Even

G E. Ellis TR8.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 61

F J. Scovens11.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

DAVBig

G M. Kalu8.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 33

C I. Platteeuw3.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 43

COFCBig

G X. Abreu TR12.6 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 83

DavidsonBetterCharleston

DAV offense149th of 366 · -4.5

Even

COFC defense143rd of 366 · -3.1

DAV defense84th of 366 · +0.0

Even

COFC offense108th of 366 · -1.6

Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players

COFCBig

Backcourt+5.0 · 5 players

Frontcourt+2.2 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.9 · 4 players

DAVSmall

Bench-2.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDAV betterCOFC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Davidson

Guards

N. Janowski32 min · TRS. Brown24 minN. Coval19 minP. Kavu1 minJ. CarterNewE. HeinonenNew

Forwards

J. Scovens25 minJ. Roberts12 minJ. Keith9 min · TRJ. Nowland1 minQ. BashiruNewT. StoiberNew

Centers

I. Platteeuw15 min

Charleston

Guards

T. Johnson32 min · TRB. Bradford28 min · TRE. Ellis27 min · TRM. Kalu27 minX. Abreu21 min · TRM. Green15 min · TR

Forwards

T. Scott21 min · TRW. Mortimore9 minN. VirginioNew

Centers

B. Pierce7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DAV69.9 #289

COFC75.3 #157

Points per possession

DAV1.08 #189

COFC1.09 #155

Pace (possessions)

DAV65.0 #347

COFC68.8 #192

Shooting

Effective FG%

DAV52.6 #121

COFC50.5 #212

3-point %

DAV35.4 #92

COFC30.6 #331

3-point attempt rate

DAV44.5 #79

COFC38.1 #213

Free throw rate

DAV31.0 #283

COFC41.2 #43

Possessions

Turnover rate

DAV15.8 #124

COFC15.7 #118

Offensive rebound rate

DAV28.1 #265

COFC29.9 #204

Assists per game

DAV13.4 #184

COFC13.5 #180

Defense

Points allowed

DAV68.5 #40

COFC73.9 #153

Points allowed per possession

DAV1.05 #94

COFC1.08 #146

Opponent effective FG%

DAV50.6 #132

COFC49.2 #74

Opponent 3-point %

DAV32.6 #92

COFC32.6 #90

Turnovers forced

DAV17.5 #121

COFC14.8 #308

Defensive rebound rate

DAV70.0 #157

COFC67.7 #273

Steals per game

DAV6.4 #189

COFC5.7 #280

Blocks per game

DAV4.1 #66

COFC4.6 #29

DAV		COFC
Scoring
69.9 #289	Points per game	75.3 #157
1.08 #189	Points per possession	1.09 #155
65.0 #347	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #192
Shooting
52.6 #121	Effective FG%	50.5 #212
35.4 #92	3-point %	30.6 #331
44.5 #79	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #213
31.0 #283	Free throw rate	41.2 #43
Possessions
15.8 #124	Turnover rate	15.7 #118
28.1 #265	Offensive rebound rate	29.9 #204
13.4 #184	Assists per game	13.5 #180
Defense
68.5 #40	Points allowed	73.9 #153
1.05 #94	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #146
50.6 #132	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #74
32.6 #92	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #90
17.5 #121	Turnovers forced	14.8 #308
70.0 #157	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #273
6.4 #189	Steals per game	5.7 #280
4.1 #66	Blocks per game	4.6 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Davidson

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Oklahoma St80–84
Lvs Saint Joseph's58–70
Wvs Loyola Chicago64–59
W@ St Bonaventure68–63
Lvs Saint Joseph's67–70

A week or more of rest.

Charleston

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Towson56–81
W@ UNC Wilmington79–76
W@ Hampton85–71
Wvs Monmouth74–63
W@ NC A&T74–61

A week or more of rest.

Davidson Wildcats at Charleston Cougars

What could decide it: DAV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Davidson

Charleston

Charleston has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Davidson

Charleston