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  2. Sun, Dec 6
  3. BTLR @ UNC
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 6

Butler Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels

Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
#72BTLRButler
@
#44UNCNorth Carolina
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BTLRThis seasonUNC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNC 83–75 · win probability UNC 78%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

BTLR 1, UNC 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BTLR 50.9 and allows 51.9; UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4
UNCSmall
UNC offense vs BTLR defense
Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 107th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: BTLR plays 71.1 a game (69th fastest), UNC 69.0 (180th). Faster games mean more points
UNCSmall
Home court
UNC at home. This season: UNC 0-0 at home, BTLR 0-0 away
BTLRSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: BTLR 42.1, UNC 37.1. Allowed: BTLR 24.9, UNC 23.8
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BTLR 15.9%, UNC 13.9%. Forced: BTLR 15.1%, UNC 13.6%
Context
Schedule so far
BTLR has played the 56th-hardest schedule, UNC the 61st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
BTLR hits 32.7% and allows 33.3%; UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 35.0% and 42.2% of their shots
Even
BTLR offense vs UNC defense
Offense 56th of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BTLR 22%, UNC 20%. Transfers in: BTLR 5, UNC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BTLR 34.5%, UNC 31.2%. Defensive: BTLR 70.0%, UNC 72.2%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNC -8.7—
Total—157.9—
Projected score—BTLR 74.6 · UNC 83.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNC -5.1—
1H total73.8—
1H projected scoreBTLR 34.3 · UNC 39.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Butler 1, North Carolina 1, even 3
ButlerBetterNorth Carolina
G J. Ellerbee TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 66
Even
G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67
G J. Jackson9.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
F C. Moore TR11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 46
UNCSmall
G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F T. Anderson TR10.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92
BTLRSmall
F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
C D. Jones6.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
Even
C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85
ButlerBetterNorth Carolina
BTLR offense56th of 366 · +3.1
Even
UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9
BTLR defense107th of 366 · -1.1
UNCSmall
UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+1.3 · 2 players
UNCBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
Even
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBTLR betterUNC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Butler
Guards
J. Ellerbee28 min · TRJ. Jackson23 minE. Klafke15 min · TRE. McComb1 minB. WalkerNewS. AdlerNew
Forwards
C. Moore26 min · TRT. Anderson19 min · TRS. Calderon4 min · TRH. BrutusNewB. CardinalNewM. MaricNew
Centers
D. Jones20 minK. NdzieNew
North Carolina
Guards
N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min
Forwards
J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew
Centers
C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BTLRUNC
Scoring
79.4 #75Points per game79.7 #73
1.12 #106Points per possession1.16 #50
71.1 #69Pace (possessions)69.0 #180
Shooting
50.9 #199Effective FG%54.3 #57
32.7 #2423-point %34.2 #159
35.0 #2763-point attempt rate42.2 #132
42.1 #29Free throw rate37.1 #127
Possessions
15.9 #131Turnover rate13.9 #20
34.5 #58Offensive rebound rate31.2 #159
15.5 #64Assists per game16.0 #47
Defense
77.5 #252Points allowed71.6 #97
1.09 #195Points allowed per possession1.04 #65
51.9 #208Opponent effective FG%48.4 #44
33.3 #142Opponent 3-point %34.7 #234
15.1 #272Turnovers forced13.6 #344
70.0 #163Defensive rebound rate72.2 #59
6.5 #178Steals per game5.4 #308
3.2 #191Blocks per game3.4 #167
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Butler

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Providence81–91
  • W@ DePaul81–71
  • Lvs Creighton59–76
  • L@ Villanova73–82
  • Wvs Xavier80–75

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs VCU78–82
  • Lvs Clemson79–80
  • L@ Duke61–76
  • Wvs Clemson67–63
  • Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.