1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. UNC @ GTWN
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgetown Hoyas

Capital One Arena · at Georgetown
#44UNCNorth Carolina
@
#64GTWNGeorgetown
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCThis seasonGTWN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNC 77–76 · win probability UNC 53%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

UNC 3, GTWN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4; GTWN 49.6 and allows 50.0
UNCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNC 37.1, GTWN 37.3. Allowed: UNC 23.8, GTWN 33.9
UNCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNC 31.2%, GTWN 32.5%. Defensive: UNC 72.2%, GTWN 68.5%
GTWNSmall
Home court
GTWN at home. This season: GTWN 0-0 at home, UNC 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNC 20%, GTWN 38%. Transfers in: UNC 5, GTWN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UNC plays 69.0 a game (180th fastest), GTWN 67.8 (238th). Faster games mean more points
Even
GTWN offense vs UNC defense
Offense 75th of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNC 13.9%, GTWN 15.8%. Forced: UNC 13.6%, GTWN 16.2%
Even
Three-pointers
UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%; GTWN hits 31.8% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 42.2% and 35.2% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
UNC has played the 61st-hardest schedule, GTWN the 47th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
UNC offense vs GTWN defense
Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 46th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNC -0.8—
Total—152.1—
Projected score—UNC 76.5 · GTWN 75.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNC -0.6—
1H total71.1—
1H projected scoreUNC 35.9 · GTWN 35.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: North Carolina 1, Georgetown 1, even 3
North CarolinaBetterGeorgetown
G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67
Even
G V. Miller TR10.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 74
G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
UNCBig
F C. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 57
G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
Even
F J. Parker TR9.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 79
F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
GTWNSmall
C V. Iwuchukwu11.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 89
C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85
Even
C C. Machot TR8.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 78
North CarolinaBetterGeorgetown
UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0
Even
GTWN defense46th of 366 · +2.3
UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9
Even
GTWN offense75th of 366 · +1.3
Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players
UNCBig
Backcourt+0.7 · 1 player
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
GTWNSmall
Frontcourt+6.5 · 4 players
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
GTWNSmall
Bench+1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNC betterGTWN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Carolina
Guards
N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min
Forwards
J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew
Centers
C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew
Georgetown
Guards
V. Miller26 min · TRJ. Lowe19 min · TRE. Jackson18 min · TRK. Mulready17 minM. Moses1 minM. Van Raaphorst1 min
Forwards
C. Williams30 minJ. Parker22 min · TRJ. CaldwellNewP. PastreNew
Centers
V. Iwuchukwu23 minC. Machot20 min · TRS. Diouf4 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCGTWN
Scoring
79.7 #73Points per game73.6 #215
1.16 #50Points per possession1.09 #165
69.0 #180Pace (possessions)67.8 #238
Shooting
54.3 #57Effective FG%49.6 #257
34.2 #1593-point %31.8 #285
42.2 #1323-point attempt rate35.2 #271
37.1 #127Free throw rate37.3 #121
Possessions
13.9 #20Turnover rate15.8 #120
31.2 #159Offensive rebound rate32.5 #107
16.0 #47Assists per game14.8 #101
Defense
71.6 #97Points allowed72.9 #130
1.04 #65Points allowed per possession1.08 #147
48.4 #44Opponent effective FG%50.0 #96
34.7 #234Opponent 3-point %33.3 #139
13.6 #344Turnovers forced16.2 #211
72.2 #59Defensive rebound rate68.5 #228
5.4 #308Steals per game6.5 #182
3.4 #167Blocks per game3.6 #130
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs VCU78–82
  • Lvs Clemson79–80
  • L@ Duke61–76
  • Wvs Clemson67–63
  • Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.

Georgetown

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn51–67
  • Wvs Villanova78–64
  • Wvs DePaul63–56
  • Wvs Providence80–79
  • L@ St John's69–72

A week or more of rest.