Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Jacksonville State Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 3:00 PM ETPete Mathews Coliseum · at Jax State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Louisiana Tech and Jax State
LT	This season	JXST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JXST 72–67 · win probability JXST 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JXST has more of the edges

LT 1, JXST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

JXSTBig

Three-pointers

LT hits 28.6% and allows 33.9%; JXST hits 35.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 33.4% and 38.1% of their shots

JXSTBig

LT offense vs JXST defense

Offense 302nd of 366 against a defense 172nd, on the model’s ratings

JXSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LT 33.1, JXST 43.1. Allowed: LT 36.3, JXST 38.7

LTSmall

JXST offense vs LT defense

Offense 245th of 366 against a defense 184th, on the model’s ratings

JXSTSmall

Home court

JXST at home. This season: JXST 0-0 at home, LT 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LT 47.4 and allows 48.7; JXST 49.7 and allows 49.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LT 11%, JXST 0%. Transfers in: LT 0, JXST 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: LT plays 65.5 a game (332nd fastest), JXST 66.3 (302nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LT 18.2%, JXST 17.0%. Forced: LT 17.9%, JXST 16.2%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LT 36.4%, JXST 29.8%. Defensive: LT 68.4%, JXST 72.0%

Context

Schedule so far

LT has played the 197th-hardest schedule, JXST the 196th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	JXST -5.0	—
Total	—	139.4	—
Projected score	—	LT 67.2 · JXST 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JXST -2.9	—
1H total	65.3	—
1H projected score	LT 31.2 · JXST 34.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT WWWWL	17-14	55%	7-7	—
JXST WWWWL	13-16	45%	6-8	—

Venue/role: LT away; JXST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT OUOOU	16-15	52%	17-14
JXST OOOUU	17-12	59%	12-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
JXST	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Louisiana Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs SFA	W56–49WU

Jax State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs ETSU	W81–75WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

LT 3–3 JXSTSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · LT 3-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 18, 2025-26	JXST 71 @ LT 77	LT -2.5	LT W
Jan 17, 2025-26	LT 60 @ JXST 64	JXST -4.5	LT W
Feb 15, 2024-25	JXST 70 @ LT 68	LT -3.5	JXST W
Jan 16, 2024-25	LT 61 @ JXST 63	JXST +2.5	JXST W
Feb 15, 2023-24	JXST 58 @ LT 63	LT -10.5	JXST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana Tech

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W W L W W L L W W L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W W W L L W W L W W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

U U U O O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U O O U O U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@NEV	L 50-77	+9.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 15	vsJKST	W 68-51	-8.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@INST	L 51-60	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 26	vsINST	W 75-73	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 29	vsALCN	W 83-58	-16.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@GASO	L 69-77	+1.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 13	vsUL	W 65-44	-9.5	W +11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 17	@TULN	L 53-61	+4.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 29	vsUTEP	W 75-63	-2.5	W +9.5	130.5	O 138
Jan 2	@MTSU	L 51-88	+6.5	L −30.5	134.5	O 139
Jan 4	@WKU	L 61-66	+9.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	vsLIB	L 56-72	+4.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsDEL	W 70-68	-6.5	L −4.5	123.5	O 138
Jan 14	vsMTSU	W 59-58	+3.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 117
Jan 17	@JXST	L 60-64	+4.5	W +0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsKENN	W 82-76	+1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 28	@UTEP	W 69-59	+2.5	W +12.5	130.5	U 128
Jan 31	@SHSU	L 67-83	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsNMSU	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 7	vsSHSU	W 87-78	+3.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 165
Feb 12	@MOST	W 79-78	+3.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 14	@FIU	L 64-77	+3.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 18	vsJXST	W 77-71	-2.5	W +3.5	132.5	O 148
Feb 21	@KENN	L 55-58	+5.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 113
Feb 26	vsMOST	W 72-70	-2.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsFIU	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Mar 5	@LIB	W 76-71	+8.5	W +13.5	136.5	O 147
Mar 7	@DEL	W 81-38	-2.5	W +40.5	132.5	U 119
Mar 12	vsMTSU	W 80-69	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 149
Mar 13	vsMOST	W 69-66	+1.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 14	vsKENN	L 60-71	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−17.5

JKST

W 68-51

+8.5

INST

L 51-60

−5.5

INST

W 75-73

−0.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+8.5

GASO

L 69-77

−6.5

W 65-44

+11.5

TULN

L 53-61

−3.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+9.5

MTSU

L 51-88

−30.5

WKU

L 61-66

+4.5

LIB

L 56-72

−11.5

DEL

W 70-68

−4.5

MTSU

W 59-58

+4.5

JXST

L 60-64

+0.5

KENN

W 82-76

+7.5

UTEP

W 69-59

+12.5

SHSU

L 67-83

−8.5

NMSU

L 63-72

−10.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+12.5

MOST

W 79-78

+4.5

FIU

L 64-77

−9.5

JXST

W 77-71

+3.5

KENN

L 55-58

+2.5

MOST

W 72-70

−0.5

FIU

L 76-84

−10.5

LIB

W 76-71

+13.5

DEL

W 81-38

+40.5

MTSU

W 80-69

+12.5

MOST

W 69-66

+4.5

KENN

L 60-71

−9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−9.5

JKST

W 68-51

−27.5

INST

L 51-60

−36.5

INST

W 75-73

+6.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+3.5

GASO

L 69-77

+0.5

W 65-44

−17.5

TULN

L 53-61

−26.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+7.5

MTSU

L 51-88

+4.5

WKU

L 61-66

−18.5

LIB

L 56-72

−7.5

DEL

W 70-68

+14.5

MTSU

W 59-58

−14.5

JXST

L 60-64

−3.5

KENN

W 82-76

+13.5

UTEP

W 69-59

−2.5

SHSU

L 67-83

+8.5

NMSU

L 63-72

−0.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+21.5

MOST

W 79-78

+20.5

FIU

L 64-77

−5.5

JXST

W 77-71

+15.5

KENN

L 55-58

−34.5

MOST

W 72-70

+3.5

FIU

L 76-84

+14.5

LIB

W 76-71

+10.5

DEL

W 81-38

−13.5

MTSU

W 80-69

+14.5

MOST

W 69-66

+0.5

KENN

L 60-71

−11.5

over 16under 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jax State

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-12

59% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

W L L L L L L W W W L W L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L L L L L L L W W L W W L L L W W L W W L L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1259%

O O U U O O U O O O O U O U U U O O U U U O O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 14	vsCCU	W 74-67	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 19	vsUSA	L 65-71	-2.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 24	@ARST	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsNDSU	L 43-56	+3.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 99
Dec 1	vsUNA	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 13	@GAST	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 17	vsEKU	L 59-62	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 20	@ETSU	W 81-75	+9.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 156
Dec 29	vsWKU	W 78-67	+2.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	@DEL	W 67-64	-4.5	L −1.5	126.5	O 131
Jan 4	@LIB	L 69-78	+9.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 7	vsFIU	W 71-64	-1.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 10	@KENN	L 82-88	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 170
Jan 14	vsSHSU	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 17	vsLT	W 64-60	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsMTSU	W 75-58	+1.5	W +18.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 28	@FIU	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 31	@MOST	L 67-74	+4.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 5	@WKU	W 71-66	+4.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsKENN	W 77-58	+1.5	W +20.5	149.5	U 135
Feb 11	vsUTEP	L 64-69	-6.5	L −11.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 14	vsNMSU	L 70-79	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 149
Feb 18	@LT	L 71-77	+2.5	L −3.5	132.5	O 148
Feb 21	@SHSU	L 78-82	+6.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 26	vsDEL	W 80-70	-7.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsLIB	L 78-81	+3.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 5	@NMSU	L 75-77	+6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 152
Mar 7	@UTEP	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 125
Mar 10	vsNMSU	L 63-68	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

−0.5

USA

L 65-71

−8.5

ARST

L 63-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−9.5

UNA

L 66-73

−13.5

GAST

L 73-77

−7.5

EKU

L 59-62

−5.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+15.5

WKU

W 78-67

+13.5

DEL

W 67-64

−1.5

LIB

L 69-78

+0.5

FIU

W 71-64

+5.5

KENN

L 82-88

−0.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−16.5

W 64-60

−0.5

MTSU

W 75-58

+18.5

FIU

W 78-74

+7.5

MOST

L 67-74

−2.5

WKU

W 71-66

+9.5

KENN

W 77-58

+20.5

UTEP

L 64-69

−11.5

NMSU

L 70-79

−10.5

L 71-77

−3.5

SHSU

L 78-82

+2.5

DEL

W 80-70

+2.5

LIB

L 78-81

+0.5

NMSU

L 75-77

+4.5

UTEP

W 64-61

+1.5

NMSU

L 63-68

−3.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

+1.5

USA

L 65-71

+0.5

ARST

L 63-74

−18.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−43.5

UNA

L 66-73

+4.5

GAST

L 73-77

+10.5

EKU

L 59-62

−21.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+21.5

WKU

W 78-67

+2.5

DEL

W 67-64

+4.5

LIB

L 69-78

+12.5

FIU

W 71-64

−15.5

KENN

L 82-88

+20.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−11.5

W 64-60

−3.5

MTSU

W 75-58

−0.5

FIU

W 78-74

+3.5

MOST

L 67-74

+5.5

WKU

W 71-66

−3.5

KENN

W 77-58

−14.5

UTEP

L 64-69

−1.5

NMSU

L 70-79

+9.5

L 71-77

+15.5

SHSU

L 78-82

+12.5

DEL

W 80-70

+16.5

LIB

L 78-81

+19.5

NMSU

L 75-77

+6.5

UTEP

W 64-61

−14.5

NMSU

L 63-68

−10.5

over 17under 12avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Louisiana Tech 0, Jax State 0, even 5

Louisiana TechBetterJax State

G J. Fenner5.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

Even

G J. Stiemke TR9.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28

G D. Bates NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G C. Lockett TR9.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49

G K. Tilley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F N. Cunningham TR5.1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 38

F E. Blackmon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F M. Hill TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 7

F L. Rowe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F B. Walker TR4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

Louisiana TechBetterJax State

LT offense302nd of 366 · -9.4

JXSTBig

JXST defense172nd of 366 · -3.9

LT defense184th of 366 · -4.3

LTSmall

JXST offense245th of 366 · -7.4

Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.9 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+0.3 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestLT betterJXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Louisiana Tech

Guards

J. Fenner22 minD. BatesNewK. TilleyNewJ. TylerNewJ. SandersonNewA. BoydNew

Forwards

E. BlackmonNewL. RoweNewB. WengerNewI. EmelifeNewI. FrancisNew

Jax State

Guards

J. Stiemke28 min · TRC. Lockett25 min · TRL. Horner9 min · TRG. GondrezickNewJ. VickNewN. HernandezNew

Forwards

N. Cunningham13 min · TRM. Hill10 min · TRB. Walker9 min · TRE. Croley5 min · TRK. Polk1 min · TRA. CurryNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LT67.8 #318

JXST69.9 #287

Points per possession

LT1.03 #284

JXST1.05 #241

Pace (possessions)

LT65.5 #332

JXST66.3 #302

Shooting

Effective FG%

LT47.4 #329

JXST49.7 #253

3-point %

LT28.6 #359

JXST35.7 #76

3-point attempt rate

LT33.4 #310

JXST38.1 #209

Free throw rate

LT33.1 #234

JXST43.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

LT18.2 #283

JXST17.0 #204

Offensive rebound rate

LT36.4 #21

JXST29.8 #208

Assists per game

LT11.9 #297

JXST11.6 #310

Defense

Points allowed

LT67.8 #30

JXST70.6 #66

Points allowed per possession

LT1.04 #75

JXST1.06 #120

Opponent effective FG%

LT48.7 #51

JXST49.6 #85

Opponent 3-point %

LT33.9 #178

JXST33.3 #141

Turnovers forced

LT17.9 #102

JXST16.2 #208

Defensive rebound rate

LT68.4 #232

JXST72.0 #67

Steals per game

LT6.8 #144

JXST5.8 #252

Blocks per game

LT4.6 #31

JXST3.0 #233

LT		JXST
Scoring
67.8 #318	Points per game	69.9 #287
1.03 #284	Points per possession	1.05 #241
65.5 #332	Pace (possessions)	66.3 #302
Shooting
47.4 #329	Effective FG%	49.7 #253
28.6 #359	3-point %	35.7 #76
33.4 #310	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #209
33.1 #234	Free throw rate	43.1 #21
Possessions
18.2 #283	Turnover rate	17.0 #204
36.4 #21	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #208
11.9 #297	Assists per game	11.6 #310
Defense
67.8 #30	Points allowed	70.6 #66
1.04 #75	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #120
48.7 #51	Opponent effective FG%	49.6 #85
33.9 #178	Opponent 3-point %	33.3 #141
17.9 #102	Turnovers forced	16.2 #208
68.4 #232	Defensive rebound rate	72.0 #67
6.8 #144	Steals per game	5.8 #252
4.6 #31	Blocks per game	3.0 #233

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisiana Tech

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kennesaw St60–71
Wvs Missouri St69–66
Wvs MTSU80–69
W@ Delaware81–38
W@ Liberty76–71

A week or more of rest.

Jax State

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico St63–68
W@ UTEP64–61
L@ New Mexico St75–77
Lvs Liberty78–81
Wvs Delaware80–70

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

What could decide it: JXST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana Tech

Jax State

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Louisiana Tech

Jax State