1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. ETSU @ JXST
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Pete Mathews Coliseum · at Jax State
#173ETSUETSU
@
#198JXSTJax State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ETSUThis seasonJXST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JXST 71–71 · win probability JXST 52%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 141.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ETSU has more of the edges

ETSU 4, JXST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ETSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ETSU 15.2%, JXST 17.0%. Forced: ETSU 18.4%, JXST 16.2%
Context
Schedule so far
ETSU has played the 309th-hardest schedule, JXST the 196th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ETSUSmall
JXST offense vs ETSU defense
Offense 245th of 366 against a defense 140th, on the model’s ratings
ETSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ETSU 55.3 and allows 51.0; JXST 49.7 and allows 49.6
JXSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ETSU 35.0, JXST 43.1. Allowed: ETSU 36.4, JXST 38.7
ETSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ETSU 29%, JXST 0%. Transfers in: ETSU 5, JXST 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
JXSTSmall
ETSU offense vs JXST defense
Offense 224th of 366 against a defense 172nd, on the model’s ratings
JXSTSmall
Home court
JXST at home. This season: JXST 0-0 at home, ETSU 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ETSU 28.3%, JXST 29.8%. Defensive: ETSU 72.1%, JXST 72.0%
Even
Three-pointers
ETSU hits 34.7% and allows 32.9%; JXST hits 35.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 37.8% and 38.1% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: ETSU plays 67.0 a game (279th fastest), JXST 66.3 (302nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—JXST -0.5—
Total—141.9—
Projected score—ETSU 70.7 · JXST 71.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadJXST -0.2—
1H total66.4—
1H projected scoreETSU 33.1 · JXST 33.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: ETSU 1, Jax State 1, even 3
ETSUBetterJax State
G B. Ward TR11.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.6 ast Score 29
Even
G J. Stiemke TR9.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28
G J. Cooper TR11.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 34
JXSTSmall
G C. Lockett TR9.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49
G T. Hennig TR9.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 24
Even
F N. Cunningham TR5.1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 38
G M. Johnson5.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
ETSUSmall
F M. Hill TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 7
F J. McCullum7.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 49
No call
F B. Walker TR4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
ETSUBetterJax State
ETSU offense224th of 366 · -6.9
Even
JXST defense172nd of 366 · -3.9
ETSU defense140th of 366 · -2.9
ETSUSmall
JXST offense245th of 366 · -7.4
Backcourt-7.6 · 4 players
JXSTBig
Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.9 · 3 players
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
JXSTSmall
Bench+0.3 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestETSU betterJXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
ETSU
Guards
B. Ward31 min · TRJ. Cooper31 min · TRT. Hennig25 min · TRM. Johnson22 minT. Mason17 min · TRD. PayneNew
Forwards
J. McCullum22 minB. Crump15 minM. Marion12 min · TRK. CampbellNewE. SmithNew
Jax State
Guards
J. Stiemke28 min · TRC. Lockett25 min · TRL. Horner9 min · TRG. GondrezickNewJ. VickNewN. HernandezNew
Forwards
N. Cunningham13 min · TRM. Hill10 min · TRB. Walker9 min · TRE. Croley5 min · TRK. Polk1 min · TRA. CurryNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ETSUJXST
Scoring
76.8 #121Points per game69.9 #287
1.15 #59Points per possession1.05 #241
67.0 #279Pace (possessions)66.3 #302
Shooting
55.3 #33Effective FG%49.7 #253
34.7 #1323-point %35.7 #76
37.8 #2163-point attempt rate38.1 #209
35.0 #180Free throw rate43.1 #21
Possessions
15.2 #79Turnover rate17.0 #204
28.3 #252Offensive rebound rate29.8 #208
13.9 #154Assists per game11.6 #310
Defense
70.1 #61Points allowed70.6 #66
1.04 #77Points allowed per possession1.06 #120
51.0 #161Opponent effective FG%49.6 #85
32.9 #110Opponent 3-point %33.3 #141
18.4 #79Turnovers forced16.2 #208
72.1 #64Defensive rebound rate72.0 #67
8.6 #16Steals per game5.8 #252
3.3 #180Blocks per game3.0 #233
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

ETSU

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman61–76
  • Wvs W Carolina69–67
  • Wvs The Citadel83–76
  • L@ Mercer76–82
  • Lvs Wofford69–72

A week or more of rest.

Jax State

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs New Mexico St63–68
  • W@ UTEP64–61
  • L@ New Mexico St75–77
  • Lvs Liberty78–81
  • Wvs Delaware80–70

A week or more of rest.