Princeton Tigers at Brown Bears: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Feb 20, 7:00 PM ETPizzitola Sports Center · at Brown · Conference game

#135PRINPrinceton71final

Final

#156BRWNBrown80▲ winner

Closing lineBRWN -2.5✓ BRWN covered by 6.5

Closing total129.5Over by 21.5

Season records: Princeton and Brown
PRIN	This season	BRWN
7-17	Record	6-15
14-10	ATS	11-10
11-13	O/U	10-11

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PRIN 66–68 BRWN · ✓ BRWN (56%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PRIN	37	34	71
BRWN	42	38	80

1st half: PRIN 37, BRWN 42 (BRWN by 5). The model had BRWN by 0.9 and a total of 62.8 (actual 79).

Team stats

PRIN		BRWN
20-50 40%	Field goals	30-49 61%
9-26 35%	3-pointers	7-18 39%
22-29 76%	Free throws	13-20 65%
33 14 off	Rebounds	26 5 off
16	Assists	20
8	Steals	10
4	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	12
18	Fouls	21
20	Points in paint	44
7	Fast-break points	10

Players

PRIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Hicke G	37	26	8	2	7-15	2-6
Malik Abdullahi F	35	13	2	2	4-6	1-2
Landon Clark G	34	8	5	5	3-7	2-5
Dalen Davis G	26	7	2	1	2-9	1-4
Jacob Huggins F	25	1	7	2	0-2	0-1
Bench
CJ Happy F	17	2	0	3	1-4	0-1
Peyton Seals G	15	12	4	0	3-6	3-6
Sebastian Whitfield G	6	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Jacob Hammond F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jake Sussberg G	2	2	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Lucas Denault, Will Kutzler, Cash McSweeney, Ryan Mandes, Cooper Mueller, Jack Stanton, Zio Kim

BRWN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Landon Lewis F	33	21	4	2	10-12	1-1
Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson G	29	6	2	8	3-5	0-1
Jeremiah Jenkins G	28	5	1	5	2-4	0-1
Luke Paragon G	24	20	4	0	6-12	3-8
N'famara Dabo F	21	7	4	1	2-2	0-0
Bench
Adrian Uchidiuno G	20	8	2	1	2-4	1-2
Isaiah Langham G	19	11	3	1	4-5	2-3
David Rochester G	16	2	2	2	1-4	0-1
Charlie O'Sullivan F	10	0	2	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jonah Drezner, Brady Loughlin, Wyatt DeGraaf, Drew Kania, AJ Lesburt Jr., Jerrell Barron Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BRWN -2.5	BRWN -1.7	PRIN +0.8	L BRWN covered
Total	129.5	134.1	Over 4.6	W Over
Projected score	—	PRIN 66.2 · BRWN 67.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRWN -0.9	BRWN -5.0
1H total	62.8	79
1H projected score	PRIN 31 · BRWN 31.9	PRIN 37 · BRWN 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRIN LWWLL	14-10	58%	6-5	11-7
BRWN LLWWW	11-10	52%	4-6	4-2

Venue/role: PRIN away, as underdog; BRWN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRIN UOUUO	11-13	46%	7-17
BRWN UOOUO	10-11	48%	6-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
BRWN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PRIN 7–3 BRWNPRIN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PRIN 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 24, 2025-26	BRWN 53 @ PRIN 63	PRIN -4.5	PRIN W
Feb 14, 2024-25	PRIN 56 @ BRWN 70	BRWN +4.5	BRWN W
Feb 1, 2024-25	BRWN 49 @ PRIN 69	PRIN -7.5	PRIN W
Mar 16, 2023-24	BRWN 90 vs PRIN 81	PRIN -10.5	BRWN W
Feb 16, 2023-24	BRWN 63 @ PRIN 72	PRIN -13.5	BRWN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Princeton

24 games played

Straight up

7-17

29% wins

Against the spread

14-10

58% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-13

46% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1729%

L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1058%

L W W L W L W W W W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-1346%

O U U O U O O O U U O U U O O U O U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 24	vsBRAD	L 64-88	+9.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTEM	L 75-79	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsUVM	L 74-79	+5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsJOES	L 58-60	+5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 3	@MONM	L 58-63	+5.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 121
Dec 6	@LUC	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 10	vsMRMK	L 56-59	-2.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 22	@TEM	L 61-65	+8.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsUVM	W 75-69	+3.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 5	vsPENN	W 78-76	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsYALE	W 76-60	+7.5	W +23.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 17	@HARV	L 80-87	+4.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	@DART	L 69-71	-1.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsBRWN	W 63-53	-4.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	@COR	L 64-87	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 151
Jan 31	@COLU	W 80-68	+5.5	W +17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	@PENN	L 60-61	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOR	L 65-89	+3.5	L −20.5	155.5	U 154
Feb 14	vsCOLU	L 65-75	+1.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

BRAD

L 64-88

−14.5

TEM

L 75-79

+4.5

UVM

L 74-79

+0.5

JOES

L 58-60

+3.5

MONM

L 58-63

+0.5

LUC

L 68-73

+1.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−5.5

TEM

L 61-65

+4.5

UVM

W 75-69

+9.5

PENN

W 78-76

−1.5

YALE

W 76-60

+23.5

HARV

L 80-87

−2.5

DART

L 69-71

−3.5

BRWN

W 63-53

+5.5

COR

L 64-87

−15.5

COLU

W 80-68

+17.5

PENN

L 60-61

+2.5

COR

L 65-89

−20.5

COLU

L 65-75

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 10avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

BRAD

L 64-88

+10.5

TEM

L 75-79

+8.5

UVM

L 74-79

+12.5

JOES

L 58-60

−28.5

MONM

L 58-63

−18.5

LUC

L 68-73

+4.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−19.5

TEM

L 61-65

−13.5

UVM

W 75-69

+7.5

PENN

W 78-76

+8.5

YALE

W 76-60

−6.5

HARV

L 80-87

+33.5

DART

L 69-71

−7.5

BRWN

W 63-53

−18.5

COR

L 64-87

−7.5

COLU

W 80-68

+8.5

PENN

L 60-61

−23.5

COR

L 65-89

−1.5

COLU

L 65-75

+2.5

over 11under 13avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Brown

21 games played

Straight up

6-15

29% wins

Against the spread

11-10

52% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-11

48% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-1529%

L L L L W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-1052%

L W L L W L W W W W W L L W L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

10-1148%

U O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 14	vsHAMP	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 18	vsHC	W 68-49	-2.5	W +16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 20	@STBK	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 23	@ME	W 58-53	-1.5	W +3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 26	@UNH	W 59-47	-5.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 106
Dec 2	@URI	L 56-66	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 5	vsBRY	W 75-56	-6.5	W +12.5	130.5	O 131
Dec 9	@PROV	L 79-86	+19.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 165
Jan 5	vsYALE	L 53-70	+8.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PENN	L 73-81	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	vsCOLU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	vsCOR	L 67-89	+2.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	@PRIN	L 53-63	+4.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsHARV	L 59-69	+1.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	vsDART	L 70-77	-1.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 6	@YALE	L 69-81	+15.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 13	@HARV	L 53-56	+7.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	@DART	W 79-76	+2.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−10.5

W 68-49

+16.5

STBK

L 70-80

−6.5

W 58-53

+3.5

UNH

W 59-47

+6.5

URI

L 56-66

+3.5

BRY

W 75-56

+12.5

PROV

L 79-86

+12.5

YALE

L 53-70

−8.5

PENN

L 73-81

−2.5

COLU

W 86-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-89

−19.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−5.5

HARV

L 59-69

−8.5

DART

L 70-77

−8.5

YALE

L 69-81

+3.5

HARV

L 53-56

+4.5

DART

W 79-76

+5.5

covered 11didn’t cover 10avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−4.5

W 68-49

−24.5

STBK

L 70-80

+13.5

W 58-53

−16.5

UNH

W 59-47

−30.5

URI

L 56-66

−16.5

BRY

W 75-56

+0.5

PROV

L 79-86

+19.5

YALE

L 53-70

−19.5

PENN

L 73-81

+8.5

COLU

W 86-80

+22.5

COR

L 67-89

−7.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−18.5

HARV

L 59-69

−4.5

DART

L 70-77

+4.5

YALE

L 69-81

+9.5

HARV

L 53-56

−22.5

DART

W 79-76

+15.5

over 10under 11avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Princeton Tigers at Brown Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Princeton

Brown

Princeton

Brown