Princeton Tigers at Dartmouth Big Green: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 19, 6:00 PM ETLeede Arena · at Dartmouth · Conference game

#135PRINPrinceton69final

Final

#251DARTDartmouth71▲ winner

Closing linePRIN -1.5✓ DART covered by 3.5

Closing total147.5Under by 7.5

Season records: Princeton and Dartmouth
PRIN	This season	DART
5-12	Record	6-8
11-6	ATS	7-7
9-8	O/U	7-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PRIN 73–75 DART · ✓ DART (58%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PRIN	38	31	69
DART	31	40	71

1st half: PRIN 38, DART 31 (PRIN by 7). The model had DART by 1.2 and a total of 69.2 (actual 69).

Team stats

PRIN		DART
24-57 42%	Field goals	25-58 43%
10-28 36%	3-pointers	9-25 36%
11-11 100%	Free throws	12-15 80%
27 4 off	Rebounds	38 11 off
15	Assists	11
3	Steals	0
4	Blocks	0
2	Turnovers	8
17	Fouls	12
26	Points in paint	30
0	Fast-break points	3

Players

PRIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Hicke G	40	28	4	2	9-15	4-7
Landon Clark G	33	12	3	2	4-11	2-7
Jack Stanton G	32	5	0	2	2-7	1-6
Malik Abdullahi F	32	9	5	2	4-7	0-0
CJ Happy F	16	0	1	1	0-3	0-2
Bench
Jacob Huggins F	24	2	6	5	1-3	0-1
Dalen Davis G	18	13	2	1	4-9	3-3
Sebastian Whitfield G	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Jake Sussberg G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Cash McSweeney, Will Kutzler, Ryan Mandes, Cooper Mueller, Zio Kim, Peyton Seals, Jacob Hammond

DART	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kareem Thomas G	35	22	4	0	7-13	3-7
Jayden Williams F	31	13	4	3	5-11	3-7
Brandon Mitchell-Day F	30	6	14	3	2-9	0-1
Connor Amundsen G	26	5	3	1	2-6	1-3
Jackson Munro F	26	4	4	2	1-1	0-0
Bench
Cam Hiatt G	16	10	2	2	3-7	2-4
Nikola Abusara G	14	8	4	0	4-6	0-0
Cameron McNamee G	10	0	1	0	0-4	0-3
Ben Brown G	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Anton Strelnikov C	5	3	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Khai Lockwood, Tyler Garrett, Shanon Simango, Patrick Tivnan Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PRIN -1.5	DART -2.3	DART +3.8	W DART covered
Total	147.5	147.6	Over 0.1	L Under
Projected score	—	PRIN 72.7 · DART 75

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DART -1.2	PRIN -7.0
1H total	69.2	69
1H projected score	PRIN 34 · DART 35.2	PRIN 38 · DART 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRIN WWLWL	11-6	65%	4-3	2-2
DART LWWWL	7-7	50%	1-4	5-3

Venue/role: PRIN away, as favorite; DART home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRIN UOOUO	9-8	53%	5-12
DART UOUOU	7-7	50%	6-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRIN	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
DART	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

PRIN 6–2 DARTPRIN leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · PRIN 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2024-25	DART 76 @ PRIN 61	PRIN -7.5	DART W
Jan 18, 2024-25	PRIN 81 @ DART 80	DART +8.5	DART W
Feb 24, 2023-24	PRIN 68 @ DART 56	DART +15.5	DART W
Jan 15, 2023-24	DART 58 @ PRIN 76	PRIN -17.5	PRIN W
Feb 11, 2022-23	PRIN 76 @ DART 83	DART +7.5	DART W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Princeton

17 games played

Straight up

5-12

29% wins

Against the spread

11-6

65% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-8

53% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-1229%

L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-665%

L W W L W L W W W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-853%

O U U O U O O O U U O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 24	vsBRAD	L 64-88	+9.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTEM	L 75-79	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsUVM	L 74-79	+5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsJOES	L 58-60	+5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 3	@MONM	L 58-63	+5.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 121
Dec 6	@LUC	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 10	vsMRMK	L 56-59	-2.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 22	@TEM	L 61-65	+8.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsUVM	W 75-69	+3.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 5	vsPENN	W 78-76	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsYALE	W 76-60	+7.5	W +23.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 17	@HARV	L 80-87	+4.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

BRAD

L 64-88

−14.5

TEM

L 75-79

+4.5

UVM

L 74-79

+0.5

JOES

L 58-60

+3.5

MONM

L 58-63

+0.5

LUC

L 68-73

+1.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−5.5

TEM

L 61-65

+4.5

UVM

W 75-69

+9.5

PENN

W 78-76

−1.5

YALE

W 76-60

+23.5

HARV

L 80-87

−2.5

covered 11didn’t cover 6avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

BRAD

L 64-88

+10.5

TEM

L 75-79

+8.5

UVM

L 74-79

+12.5

JOES

L 58-60

−28.5

MONM

L 58-63

−18.5

LUC

L 68-73

+4.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−19.5

TEM

L 61-65

−13.5

UVM

W 75-69

+7.5

PENN

W 78-76

+8.5

YALE

W 76-60

−6.5

HARV

L 80-87

+33.5

over 9under 8avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Dartmouth

14 games played

Straight up

6-8

43% wins

Against the spread

7-7

50% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-843%

L L L W W L L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-750%

L L L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-750%

U O O O U O U U O U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsMRST	L 56-75	-1.5	L −20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 12	@BRY	L 75-82	+1.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 16	vsAPP	L 77-85	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 162
Nov 29	@SPU	W 87-61	+3.5	W +29.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 3	vsUNH	W 69-68	-8.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 6	@WYO	L 80-93	+14.5	W +1.5	156.5	O 173
Dec 9	@CSU	L 55-76	+20.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 131
Dec 13	vsBU	W 77-64	-2.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 16	@HC	W 89-64	-1.5	W +23.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 19	@SHU	L 63-85	-1.5	L −23.5	155.5	U 148
Dec 29	@FLA	L 72-94	+35.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 166
Jan 5	@HARV	W 76-68	+7.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@COR	W 102-91	+9.5	W +20.5	175.5	O 193
Jan 17	vsPENN	L 74-84	-2.5	L −12.5	163.5	U 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−20.5

BRY

L 75-82

−5.5

APP

L 77-85

−6.5

SPU

W 87-61

+29.5

UNH

W 69-68

−7.5

WYO

L 80-93

+1.5

CSU

L 55-76

−0.5

W 77-64

+10.5

W 89-64

+23.5

SHU

L 63-85

−23.5

FLA

L 72-94

+13.5

HARV

W 76-68

+15.5

COR

W 102-91

+20.5

PENN

L 74-84

−12.5

covered 7didn’t cover 7avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

L 56-75

−7.5

BRY

L 75-82

+5.5

APP

L 77-85

+21.5

SPU

W 87-61

+3.5

UNH

W 69-68

−10.5

WYO

L 80-93

+16.5

CSU

L 55-76

−22.5

W 77-64

−3.5

W 89-64

+5.5

SHU

L 63-85

−7.5

FLA

L 72-94

+5.5

HARV

W 76-68

−4.5

COR

W 102-91

+17.5

PENN

L 74-84

−5.5

over 7under 7avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Princeton Tigers at Dartmouth Big Green

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Princeton

Dartmouth

Princeton

Dartmouth