1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. DAY @ FSU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Dayton Flyers at Florida State Seminoles

Tucker Center · at Florida St
#91DAYDayton
@
#81FSUFlorida St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DAYThis seasonFSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FSU 77–72 · win probability FSU 65%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

DAY 2, FSU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: DAY plays 68.3 a game (213th fastest), FSU 71.8 (41st). Faster games mean more points
DAYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAY 46.1, FSU 34.7. Allowed: DAY 35.5, FSU 32.7
FSUSmall
Home court
FSU at home. This season: FSU 0-0 at home, DAY 0-0 away
DAYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAY 26.9%, FSU 30.8%. Defensive: DAY 71.2%, FSU 65.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAY 31%, FSU 9%. Transfers in: DAY 4, FSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DAY 16.9%, FSU 15.2%. Forced: DAY 21.0%, FSU 19.0%
Context
Schedule so far
DAY has played the 90th-hardest schedule, FSU the 73rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
FSU offense vs DAY defense
Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0; FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2
Even
DAY offense vs FSU defense
Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%; FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 41.4% and 50.6% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FSU -4.5—
Total—149.3—
Projected score—DAY 72.4 · FSU 76.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFSU -2.6—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreDAY 33.6 · FSU 36.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Florida St has the better starters

Position by position: Dayton 1, Florida St 2, even 2
DaytonBetterFlorida St
G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63
FSUSmall
G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 90
G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78
Even
G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast Score 73
F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65
FSUSmall
F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 82
F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
DAYBig
F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63
Even
F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
DaytonBetterFlorida St
DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7
Even
FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7
DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4
Even
FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4
Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players
FSUSmall
Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
DAYSmall
Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Even
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestDAY betterFSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Dayton
Guards
Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min
Forwards
G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew
Florida St
Guards
K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew
Forwards
S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew
Centers
M. PonderNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DAYFSU
Scoring
74.1 #193Points per game80.4 #58
1.09 #167Points per possession1.12 #101
68.3 #213Pace (possessions)71.8 #41
Shooting
51.6 #168Effective FG%52.3 #132
33.9 #1823-point %33.1 #226
41.4 #1423-point attempt rate50.6 #13
46.1 #2Free throw rate34.7 #191
Possessions
16.9 #198Turnover rate15.2 #80
26.9 #298Offensive rebound rate30.8 #170
14.2 #134Assists per game14.3 #124
Defense
69.3 #50Points allowed77.9 #264
1.01 #37Points allowed per possession1.08 #178
51.0 #164Opponent effective FG%52.2 #226
35.4 #270Opponent 3-point %34.6 #228
21.0 #11Turnovers forced19.0 #51
71.2 #94Defensive rebound rate65.9 #319
8.2 #31Steals per game7.9 #44
3.9 #90Blocks per game3.9 #84
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St55–61
  • W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
  • W@ Bradley80–66
  • Lvs VCU62–70
  • Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.

Florida St

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke79–80
  • Wvs California95–89
  • Wvs SMU91–78
  • W@ Pitt75–74
  • W@ Georgia Tech80–71

A week or more of rest.