1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. MEM @ BAY
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Memphis Tigers at Baylor Bears

Foster Pavilion · at Baylor
#76MEMMemphis
@
#29BAYBaylor
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MEMThis seasonBAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BAY 85–74 · win probability BAY 83%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BAY has more of the edges

MEM 1, BAY 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BAYBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MEM 34.7, BAY 34.1. Allowed: MEM 42.4, BAY 30.1
BAYSmall
BAY offense vs MEM defense
Offense 29th of 366 against a defense 116th, on the model’s ratings
BAYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MEM 35.3%, BAY 36.9%. Defensive: MEM 64.3%, BAY 68.7%
Context
Schedule so far
MEM has played the 81st-hardest schedule, BAY the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: MEM plays 71.9 a game (37th fastest), BAY 69.3 (161st). Faster games mean more points
BAYSmall
Home court
BAY at home. This season: BAY 0-0 at home, MEM 0-0 away
MEMSmall
Three-pointers
MEM hits 31.6% and allows 30.6%; BAY hits 33.9% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 33.7% and 39.6% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MEM 15%, BAY 26%. Transfers in: MEM 9, BAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
MEM offense vs BAY defense
Offense 62nd of 366 against a defense 45th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MEM 48.7 and allows 48.7; BAY 53.4 and allows 52.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MEM 18.9%, BAY 16.2%. Forced: MEM 18.6%, BAY 15.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BAY -10.8—
Total—158.8—
Projected score—MEM 74 · BAY 84.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBAY -6.3—
1H total74.2—
1H projected scoreMEM 34 · BAY 40.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Memphis 0, Baylor 0, even 5
MemphisBetterBaylor
G L. Almodovar TR14.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 80
Even
G B. Decker TR16.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1 ast Score 76
G B. Cummings TR12.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 84
Even
G K. Mingo TR13.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.3 ast Score 92
G J. Reid TR10.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 5 ast Score 83
Even
G I. Williams10.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 89
F T. Weeks TR20.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
Even
F I. Celiscar TR13.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 88
F C. Williams TR11.7 pts · 9.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 68
Even
F E. Chatman TR8.9 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 71
MemphisBetterBaylor
MEM offense62nd of 366 · +2.6
Even
BAY defense45th of 366 · +2.4
MEM defense116th of 366 · -1.5
BAYSmall
BAY offense29th of 366 · +6.5
Backcourt+4.5 · 3 players
BAYSmall
Backcourt+6.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+4.1 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Bench+4.4 · 5 players
MEMSmall
Bench+1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestMEM betterBAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Memphis
Guards
L. Almodovar28 min · TRB. Cummings26 min · TRJ. Reid26 min · TRJ. Thedford20 minJ. Holloway13 min · TRP. PoundsNew
Forwards
T. Weeks34 min · TRC. Williams33 min · TRR. Vavers25 min · TRJ. Deng13 min · TRM. Logue11 min · TRW. Whorton9 min
Baylor
Guards
B. Decker34 min · TRK. Mingo32 min · TRI. Williams25 minD. Perry2 minJ. Goodis1 minA. IguodalaNew
Forwards
I. Celiscar32 min · TRE. Chatman29 min · TRM. PerezNewE. WilliamsNew
Centers
C. Powell24 minJ. Bodo BodoNewM. SoyoyeNewT. MakabuNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MEMBAY
Scoring
75.2 #158Points per game80.4 #59
1.04 #264Points per possession1.16 #51
71.9 #37Pace (possessions)69.3 #161
Shooting
48.7 #298Effective FG%53.4 #84
31.6 #3033-point %33.9 #179
33.7 #3053-point attempt rate39.6 #181
34.7 #190Free throw rate34.1 #202
Possessions
18.9 #316Turnover rate16.2 #153
35.3 #41Offensive rebound rate36.9 #18
13.3 #193Assists per game14.8 #96
Defense
76.6 #234Points allowed76.9 #238
1.07 #124Points allowed per possession1.11 #248
48.7 #55Opponent effective FG%52.4 #237
30.6 #22Opponent 3-point %34.8 #240
18.6 #69Turnovers forced15.9 #226
64.3 #350Defensive rebound rate68.7 #219
8.4 #19Steals per game6.3 #198
4.3 #49Blocks per game3.9 #85
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Memphis

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulane69–81
  • W@ Tulane96–95
  • Lvs South Florida89–96
  • L@ East Carolina68–84
  • Lvs Wichita St82–88

A week or more of rest.

Baylor

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma69–82
  • Wvs Minnesota67–48
  • Lvs Arizona St79–83
  • Wvs Utah101–75
  • L@ Houston64–77

A week or more of rest.