1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. LOU vs MICH
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan Wolverines

Little Caesars Arena · Neutral site
#14LOULouisville AP #11
vs
#8MICHMichigan AP #16
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LOUThis seasonMICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MICH 80–77 · win probability MICH 62%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MICH has more of the edges

LOU 0, MICH 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MICHBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LOU 33.1, MICH 38.0. Allowed: LOU 33.0, MICH 26.0
MICHSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LOU 12%, MICH 38%. Transfers in: LOU 8, MICH 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
LOU hits 36.0% and allows 32.3%; MICH hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%. Threes are 52.9% and 41.5% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
LOU has played the 44th-hardest schedule, MICH the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LOU 16.8%, MICH 16.3%. Forced: LOU 16.7%, MICH 15.2%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LOU 56.5 and allows 48.7; MICH 58.3 and allows 44.6
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: LOU plays 71.0 a game (77th fastest), MICH 71.7 (48th). Faster games mean more points
Even
MICH offense vs LOU defense
Offense 5th of 366 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LOU 32.8%, MICH 34.7%. Defensive: LOU 72.5%, MICH 71.8%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
LOU offense vs MICH defense
Offense 15th of 366 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MICH -3.6—
Total—157.2—
Projected score—LOU 76.8 · MICH 80.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMICH -2.0—
1H total73.5—
1H projected scoreLOU 35.7 · MICH 37.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Louisville has the better starters

Position by position: Louisville 1, Michigan 0, even 4
LouisvilleBetterMichigan
G J. Shelstad TR15.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 92
Even
G K. Noland TR17.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 87
G S. Trimble TR14 pts · 3.8 reb · 3 ast Score 90
Even
G E. Cadeau10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.9 ast Score 87
G D. Montgomery TR13.4 pts · 4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 92
Even
G T. McKenney9.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 88
F F. Bidunga TR13.3 pts · 9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99
LOUSmall
G R. Gayle7.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 76
F L. Wells TR15.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 85
Even
C M. Thiam TR12.8 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 92
LouisvilleBetterMichigan
LOU offense15th of 366 · +9.3
Even
MICH defense10th of 366 · +7.4
LOU defense16th of 366 · +6.2
Even
MICH offense5th of 366 · +10.9
Backcourt+9.1 · 3 players
LOUSmall
Backcourt+7.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt+9.2 · 2 players
LOUBig
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
MICHSmall
Bench+5.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestLOU betterMICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Louisville
Guards
J. Shelstad35 min · TRS. Trimble33 min · TRD. Montgomery31 min · TRA. Wooley23 minK. Knox22 min · TRW. Hanke1 min
Forwards
F. Bidunga32 min · TRL. Wells31 min · TRA. Folgueiras21 min · TRB. ZhangNew
Centers
G. Dynes12 min · TRO. EkezieNew
Michigan
Guards
K. Noland34 min · TRE. Cadeau27 minT. McKenney22 minR. Gayle21 minH. Eisley1 minR. LiburdNew
Forwards
J. Estrella18 min · TRJ. Reed18 min · TRO. Goodman5 minH. HochbergNewL. CosbyNewQ. CostelloNew
Centers
M. Thiam27 min · TRM. MollerNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LOUMICH
Scoring
84.2 #18Points per game87.3 #4
1.18 #29Points per possession1.21 #8
71.0 #77Pace (possessions)71.7 #48
Shooting
56.5 #14Effective FG%58.3 #8
36.0 #583-point %36.8 #33
52.9 #43-point attempt rate41.5 #141
33.1 #236Free throw rate38.0 #102
Possessions
16.8 #184Turnover rate16.3 #157
32.8 #93Offensive rebound rate34.7 #55
17.1 #23Assists per game18.6 #5
Defense
72.5 #119Points allowed69.5 #55
1.02 #49Points allowed per possession0.97 #8
48.7 #54Opponent effective FG%44.6 #1
32.3 #76Opponent 3-point %30.4 #18
16.7 #172Turnovers forced15.2 #270
72.5 #50Defensive rebound rate71.8 #70
6.8 #148Steals per game5.6 #286
3.3 #179Blocks per game6.0 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisville

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan St69–77
  • Wvs South Florida83–79
  • Lvs Miami73–78
  • Wvs SMU62–58
  • W@ Miami92–89

A week or more of rest.

Michigan

37-3 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UConn69–63
  • Wvs Arizona91–73
  • Wvs Tennessee95–62
  • Wvs Alabama90–77
  • Wvs Saint Louis95–72

A week or more of rest.