1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. ARIZ @ SJU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Arizona Wildcats at St. John's Red Storm

Madison Square Garden · at St John's
#5ARIZArizona AP #5
@
#9SJUSt John's AP #13
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ARIZThis seasonSJU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARIZ 78–77 · win probability ARIZ 53%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARIZ has more of the edges

ARIZ 4, SJU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SJUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ARIZ 15.1%, SJU 14.4%. Forced: ARIZ 16.2%, SJU 19.1%
ARIZSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ARIZ 54.7 and allows 45.3; SJU 51.0 and allows 47.5
ARIZSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARIZ 38.4%, SJU 35.2%. Defensive: ARIZ 73.1%, SJU 70.1%
ARIZSmall
Three-pointers
ARIZ hits 36.6% and allows 31.4%; SJU hits 33.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 26.4% and 35.2% of their shots
ARIZSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARIZ 43.9, SJU 40.2. Allowed: ARIZ 27.1, SJU 31.8
SJUSmall
Home court
SJU at home. This season: SJU 0-0 at home, ARIZ 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: ARIZ plays 71.6 a game (49th fastest), SJU 70.8 (82nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ARIZ 29%, SJU 22%. Transfers in: ARIZ 5, SJU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
ARIZ offense vs SJU defense
Offense 4th of 366 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ARIZ has played the 11th-hardest schedule, SJU the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
SJU offense vs ARIZ defense
Offense 8th of 366 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARIZ -0.9—
Total—155.1—
Projected score—ARIZ 78 · SJU 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARIZ -0.7—
1H total72.5—
1H projected scoreARIZ 36.6 · SJU 35.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

St John's has the better starters

Position by position: Arizona 0, St John's 3, even 2
ArizonaBetterSt John's
G D. Dixon TR6.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 55
SJUBig
G T. Yessoufou TR17.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
G J. Mandaquit TR5.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 62
SJUSmall
G I. Jackson9.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
F I. Kharchenkov10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83
SJUSmall
F K. Hall TR19.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 98
F R. Godfrey TR12 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 96
Even
F D. Freeman TR16.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 92
C M. Krivas10.4 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95
Even
F R. Bailey TR8.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
ArizonaBetterSt John's
ARIZ offense4th of 366 · +11.0
Even
SJU defense11th of 366 · +7.0
ARIZ defense7th of 366 · +8.8
Even
SJU offense8th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt-0.3 · 2 players
SJUBig
Backcourt+6.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt+10.8 · 3 players
SJUSmall
Frontcourt+12.5 · 3 players
Bench-0.1 · 4 players
ARIZSmall
Bench-1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestARIZ betterSJU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arizona
Guards
D. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Mandaquit20 min · TRA. Arnold2 minJ. Cook1 minB. JamesNewC. HolmesNew
Forwards
I. Kharchenkov28 minR. Godfrey25 min · TRE. Otten15 min · TRU. Jarusevicius11 min · TRM. MawutNewE. AiyamenkhueNew
Centers
M. Krivas25 min
St John's
Guards
T. Yessoufou33 min · TRI. Jackson18 minK. Cuffe16 min · TRA. Brown15 min · TRL. Liotopoulos8 minC. Pohto5 min
Forwards
K. Hall34 min · TRD. Freeman31 min · TRR. Bailey19 min · TRR. Prey11 minZ. MaronkaNewB. SaneNew
Centers
T. EdemaNewL. StojkovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ARIZSJU
Scoring
86.2 #11Points per game80.9 #45
1.21 #11Points per possession1.14 #68
71.6 #49Pace (possessions)70.8 #82
Shooting
54.7 #45Effective FG%51.0 #192
36.6 #373-point %33.5 #197
26.4 #3633-point attempt rate35.2 #272
43.9 #11Free throw rate40.2 #57
Possessions
15.1 #76Turnover rate14.4 #38
38.4 #5Offensive rebound rate35.2 #43
16.4 #38Assists per game16.1 #44
Defense
69.4 #53Points allowed69.7 #59
0.97 #6Points allowed per possession0.98 #15
45.3 #4Opponent effective FG%47.5 #32
31.4 #42Opponent 3-point %31.3 #39
16.2 #209Turnovers forced19.1 #46
73.1 #34Defensive rebound rate70.1 #154
7.4 #95Steals per game7.7 #58
4.2 #55Blocks per game4.8 #22
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arizona

36-3 in 2025-26 overall · 19-2 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan73–91
  • Wvs Purdue79–64
  • Wvs Arkansas109–88
  • Wvs Utah State78–66
  • Wvs Long Island92–58

A week or more of rest.

St John's

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke75–80
  • Wvs Kansas67–65
  • Wvs Northern Iowa79–53
  • Wvs UConn72–52
  • Wvs Seton Hall78–68

A week or more of rest.