Providence Friars at Rhode Island Rams: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETThomas M. Ryan Center · at Rhode Island

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Providence and Rhode Island
PROV	This season	URI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PROV 79–74 · win probability PROV 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PROV has more of the edges

PROV 4, URI 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: PROV plays 74.2 a game (10th fastest), URI 66.5 (293rd). Faster games mean more points

PROVBig

Three-pointers

PROV hits 36.4% and allows 35.3%; URI hits 31.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 40.5% and 43.5% of their shots

URISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PROV 16.7%, URI 19.1%. Forced: PROV 13.1%, URI 21.2%

Context

Schedule so far

PROV has played the 31st-hardest schedule, URI the 117th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PROVSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PROV 36.7, URI 38.4. Allowed: PROV 32.7, URI 42.6

PROVSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PROV 55.0 and allows 51.4; URI 50.1 and allows 50.4

URISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PROV 13%, URI 46%. Transfers in: PROV 8, URI 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

URISmall

Home court

URI at home. This season: URI 0-0 at home, PROV 0-0 away

PROVSmall

PROV offense vs URI defense

Offense 35th of 366 against a defense 86th, on the model’s ratings

Even

URI offense vs PROV defense

Offense 123rd of 366 against a defense 81st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PROV 31.7%, URI 31.0%. Defensive: PROV 69.2%, URI 68.2%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PROV -5.6	—
Total	—	152.6	—
Projected score	—	PROV 79.1 · URI 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PROV -3.5	—
1H total	71.3	—
1H projected score	PROV 37.4 · URI 33.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PROV WLWWL	19-14	58%	7-5	—
URI LLWLL	13-19	41%	6-10	—

Venue/role: PROV away; URI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PROV UUOOU	22-11	67%	15-18
URI OUUUU	14-18	44%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PROV	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
URI	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Providence

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs FAIR	W80–73LO
Dec 12	vs BTLR	W91–81WO

Rhode Island

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ TULN	L75–78WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PROV 4–1 URIPROV leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · PROV 4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	URI 71 @ PROV 90	PROV -7.5	PROV W
Dec 7, 2024-25	PROV 63 @ URI 69	URI +2.5	URI W
Dec 2, 2023-24	URI 69 @ PROV 84	PROV -13.5	PROV W
Dec 3, 2022-23	PROV 88 @ URI 74	URI +4.5	PROV W
Dec 4, 2021-22	URI 52 @ PROV 66	PROV -4.5	PROV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Providence

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-11

67% overs · avg +8.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W L W L W W L L W W W L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1458%

L L W L W W L W W W L W L W W L L W W L W L W W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1167%

O O O O O U O U U O O O U U O O O O O U O O O O O U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHC	W 89-79	-23.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsVT	L 101-107	-2.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 11	vsPENN	W 106-81	-19.5	W +5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 14	@COLO	L 88-97	+1.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 18	vsUNH	W 98-66	-29.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPSU	W 77-65	-3.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 27	vsWIS	L 83-104	+6.5	L −14.5	166.5	O 187
Nov 28	vsFLA	L 78-90	+12.5	W +0.5	169.5	U 168
Dec 2	vsFDU	W 94-64	-26.5	W +3.5	162.5	U 158
Dec 6	vsURI	W 90-71	-7.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 161
Dec 9	vsBRWN	W 86-79	-19.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 165
Dec 13	@BTLR	L 110-113	+3.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 223
Dec 19	vsHALL	L 67-72	-1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 139
Jan 3	@SJU	W 77-71	+14.5	W +20.5	166.5	U 148
Jan 7	vsCONN	L 98-103	+9.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 201
Jan 10	@XAV	L 84-97	-1.5	L −14.5	165.5	O 181
Jan 13	vsVILL	L 82-88	+2.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 170
Jan 16	vsCREI	W 93-88	+2.5	W +7.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 19	@MARQ	L 104-105	+2.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 209
Jan 24	vsGTWN	L 78-81	-5.5	L −8.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 27	@CONN	L 81-87	+15.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 168
Jan 30	@VILL	L 73-87	+8.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 160
Feb 4	vsBTLR	W 97-87	-2.5	W +7.5	168.5	O 184
Feb 7	vsDEP	W 90-72	-4.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 11	@HALL	L 80-87	+4.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 167
Feb 14	vsSJU	L 69-79	+6.5	L −3.5	167.5	U 148
Feb 21	@DEP	W 71-68	+2.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 25	vsXAV	W 94-84	-5.5	W +4.5	170.5	O 178
Feb 28	@CREI	W 79-76	+3.5	W +6.5	166.5	U 155
Mar 4	vsMARQ	L 56-78	-3.5	L −25.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 7	@GTWN	L 79-80	+1.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 159
Mar 11	vsBTLR	W 91-81	-1.5	W +8.5	162.5	O 172
Mar 12	@SJU	L 72-85	+11.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 89-79

−13.5

L 101-107

−8.5

PENN

W 106-81

+5.5

COLO

L 88-97

−7.5

UNH

W 98-66

+2.5

PSU

W 77-65

+8.5

WIS

L 83-104

−14.5

FLA

L 78-90

+0.5

FDU

W 94-64

+3.5

URI

W 90-71

+11.5

BRWN

W 86-79

−12.5

BTLR

L 110-113

+0.5

HALL

L 67-72

−6.5

SJU

W 77-71

+20.5

CONN

L 98-103

+4.5

XAV

L 84-97

−14.5

VILL

L 82-88

−3.5

CREI

W 93-88

+7.5

MARQ

L 104-105

+1.5

GTWN

L 78-81

−8.5

CONN

L 81-87

+9.5

VILL

L 73-87

−5.5

BTLR

W 97-87

+7.5

DEP

W 90-72

+13.5

HALL

L 80-87

−2.5

SJU

L 69-79

−3.5

DEP

W 71-68

+5.5

XAV

W 94-84

+4.5

CREI

W 79-76

+6.5

MARQ

L 56-78

−25.5

GTWN

L 79-80

+0.5

BTLR

W 91-81

+8.5

SJU

L 72-85

−1.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 89-79

+15.5

L 101-107

+50.5

PENN

W 106-81

+14.5

COLO

L 88-97

+21.5

UNH

W 98-66

+2.5

PSU

W 77-65

−23.5

WIS

L 83-104

+20.5

FLA

L 78-90

−1.5

FDU

W 94-64

−4.5

URI

W 90-71

+1.5

BRWN

W 86-79

+19.5

BTLR

L 110-113

+58.5

HALL

L 67-72

−13.5

SJU

W 77-71

−18.5

CONN

L 98-103

+48.5

XAV

L 84-97

+15.5

VILL

L 82-88

+13.5

CREI

W 93-88

+19.5

MARQ

L 104-105

+41.5

GTWN

L 78-81

−0.5

CONN

L 81-87

+15.5

VILL

L 73-87

+2.5

BTLR

W 97-87

+15.5

DEP

W 90-72

+8.5

HALL

L 80-87

+16.5

SJU

L 69-79

−19.5

DEP

W 71-68

−13.5

XAV

W 94-84

+7.5

CREI

W 79-76

−11.5

MARQ

L 56-78

−27.5

GTWN

L 79-80

+0.5

BTLR

W 91-81

+9.5

SJU

L 72-85

−1.5

over 22under 11avg +8.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rhode Island

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

W L W W W L W W W L L W W L L L W L W W W L W L L W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1941%

W L W W W L W W L L L L L L L L W L W W W L L W L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O U U U O U O O U O U U O U U O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTET	W 93-62	-18.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 7	vsTLSA	L 65-82	-3.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsSTO	W 80-57	-16.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 137
Nov 14	vsUALB	W 80-61	-15.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 18	@YALE	W 86-77	+8.5	W +17.5	153.5	O 163
Nov 24	vsTOW	L 55-62	-2.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 25	vsUVM	W 80-65	-4.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 26	vsTEM	W 90-75	-3.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 2	vsBRWN	W 66-56	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 6	@PROV	L 71-90	+7.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 161
Dec 9	vsMCN	L 64-66	+1.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 16	vsCAN	W 62-45	-21.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 107
Dec 22	vsNE	W 85-77	-10.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsLUC	L 57-61	-9.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	@GMU	L 50-61	+6.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 111
Jan 7	vsLAS	L 72-79	-11.5	L −18.5	135.5	O 151
Jan 10	@DAV	W 70-45	+2.5	W +27.5	134.5	U 115
Jan 14	vsVCU	L 75-84	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 21	@RICH	W 69-68	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsGMU	W 74-65	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 27	@DAY	W 81-76	+9.5	W +14.5	138.5	O 157
Feb 1	@DUQ	L 61-76	+2.5	L −12.5	146.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsRICH	W 82-77	-5.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	@GW	L 70-75	+5.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 14	vsFOR	L 66-70	-4.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 136
Feb 17	vsSLU	W 81-76	+9.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 157
Feb 21	@LAS	L 46-59	-3.5	L −16.5	135.5	U 105
Feb 26	@SBU	L 76-94	+2.5	L −15.5	144.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsJOES	L 55-61	-2.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 116
Mar 4	vsDUQ	W 64-52	-2.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 116
Mar 7	@FOR	L 49-61	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 110
Mar 12	vsDUQ	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STET

W 93-62

+12.5

TLSA

L 65-82

−20.5

STO

W 80-57

+6.5

UALB

W 80-61

+3.5

YALE

W 86-77

+17.5

TOW

L 55-62

−9.5

UVM

W 80-65

+10.5

TEM

W 90-75

+11.5

BRWN

W 66-56

−3.5

PROV

L 71-90

−11.5

MCN

L 64-66

−0.5

CAN

W 62-45

−4.5

W 85-77

−2.5

LUC

L 57-61

−13.5

GMU

L 50-61

−4.5

LAS

L 72-79

−18.5

DAV

W 70-45

+27.5

VCU

L 75-84

−5.5

RICH

W 69-68

+4.5

GMU

W 74-65

+10.5

DAY

W 81-76

+14.5

DUQ

L 61-76

−12.5

RICH

W 82-77

−0.5

L 70-75

+0.5

FOR

L 66-70

−8.5

SLU

W 81-76

+14.5

LAS

L 46-59

−16.5

SBU

L 76-94

−15.5

JOES

L 55-61

−8.5

DUQ

W 64-52

+9.5

FOR

L 49-61

−10.5

DUQ

L 61-67

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STET

W 93-62

+2.5

TLSA

L 65-82

−6.5

STO

W 80-57

−14.5

UALB

W 80-61

−9.5

YALE

W 86-77

+9.5

TOW

L 55-62

−23.5

UVM

W 80-65

+0.5

TEM

W 90-75

+15.5

BRWN

W 66-56

−16.5

PROV

L 71-90

+1.5

MCN

L 64-66

−16.5

CAN

W 62-45

−31.5

W 85-77

+17.5

LUC

L 57-61

−27.5

GMU

L 50-61

−28.5

LAS

L 72-79

+15.5

DAV

W 70-45

−19.5

VCU

L 75-84

+11.5

RICH

W 69-68

−7.5

GMU

W 74-65

+3.5

DAY

W 81-76

+18.5

DUQ

L 61-76

−9.5

RICH

W 82-77

+16.5

L 70-75

−6.5

FOR

L 66-70

+1.5

SLU

W 81-76

+5.5

LAS

L 46-59

−30.5

SBU

L 76-94

+25.5

JOES

L 55-61

−25.5

DUQ

W 64-52

−27.5

FOR

L 49-61

−26.5

DUQ

L 61-67

−10.5

over 14under 18avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Providence has the better starters

Position by position: Providence 1, Rhode Island 0, even 4

ProvidenceBetterRhode Island

G R. Sabol TR18.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

Even

G D. Williamson TR14.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 63

G M. Mack TR13.6 pts · 3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 80

PROVSmall

G J. Hinton12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51

G D. Vanterpool TR15.2 pts · 6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89

No call

G J. Fontenet TR6.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked

G M. Byrd TR10.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 90

Even

G J. Tripp12 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 90

G R. Mela9.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 81

Even

F M. Deniusas TR12.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 70

ProvidenceBetterRhode Island

PROV offense35th of 366 · +5.2

Even

URI defense86th of 366 · -0.0

PROV defense81st of 366 · +0.3

Even

URI offense123rd of 366 · -3.2

Backcourt+8.2 · 5 players

PROVBig

Backcourt-0.7 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+0.9 · 1 player

Bench+4.2 · 4 players

PROVBig

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestPROV betterURI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Providence

Guards

R. Sabol37 min · TRM. Mack32 min · TRD. Vanterpool32 min · TRM. Byrd28 min · TRR. Mela26 minG. Hightower10 min · TR

Forwards

A. Page23 min · TRJ. Bannarbie16 min · TRJ. BardwellNewC. WaltersNewL. MarangonNew

Centers

S. Aletan26 min · TR

Rhode Island

Guards

D. Williamson37 min · TRJ. Hinton32 minJ. Fontenet28 min · TRJ. Tripp25 minJ. Harper12 minB. Loer4 min

Forwards

M. Deniusas27 min · TRM. Sow20 minJ. PerryNewN. RaupelisNewT. MartinNewD. MabilonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PROV85.3 #15

URI69.9 #288

Points per possession

PROV1.15 #58

URI1.05 #255

Pace (possessions)

PROV74.2 #10

URI66.5 #293

Shooting

Effective FG%

PROV55.0 #37

URI50.1 #231

3-point %

PROV36.4 #45

URI31.1 #318

3-point attempt rate

PROV40.5 #157

URI43.5 #103

Free throw rate

PROV36.7 #138

URI38.4 #92

Possessions

Turnover rate

PROV16.7 #174

URI19.1 #326

Offensive rebound rate

PROV31.7 #135

URI31.0 #163

Assists per game

PROV14.0 #146

URI11.3 #321

Defense

Points allowed

PROV84.0 #356

URI68.2 #33

Points allowed per possession

PROV1.13 #292

URI1.03 #53

Opponent effective FG%

PROV51.4 #179

URI50.4 #124

Opponent 3-point %

PROV35.3 #265

URI34.7 #232

Turnovers forced

PROV13.1 #352

URI21.2 #10

Defensive rebound rate

PROV69.2 #195

URI68.2 #248

Steals per game

PROV5.4 #313

URI8.4 #20

Blocks per game

PROV3.9 #86

URI3.7 #117

PROV		URI
Scoring
85.3 #15	Points per game	69.9 #288
1.15 #58	Points per possession	1.05 #255
74.2 #10	Pace (possessions)	66.5 #293
Shooting
55.0 #37	Effective FG%	50.1 #231
36.4 #45	3-point %	31.1 #318
40.5 #157	3-point attempt rate	43.5 #103
36.7 #138	Free throw rate	38.4 #92
Possessions
16.7 #174	Turnover rate	19.1 #326
31.7 #135	Offensive rebound rate	31.0 #163
14.0 #146	Assists per game	11.3 #321
Defense
84.0 #356	Points allowed	68.2 #33
1.13 #292	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #53
51.4 #179	Opponent effective FG%	50.4 #124
35.3 #265	Opponent 3-point %	34.7 #232
13.1 #352	Turnovers forced	21.2 #10
69.2 #195	Defensive rebound rate	68.2 #248
5.4 #313	Steals per game	8.4 #20
3.9 #86	Blocks per game	3.7 #117

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Providence

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ St John's72–85
Wvs Butler91–81
L@ Georgetown79–80
Lvs Marquette56–78
W@ Creighton79–76

A week or more of rest.

Rhode Island

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duquesne61–67
L@ Fordham49–61
Wvs Duquesne64–52
Lvs Saint Joseph's55–61
L@ St Bonaventure76–94

A week or more of rest.

Providence Friars at Rhode Island Rams

What could decide it: PROV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Providence

Rhode Island

Providence has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Providence

Rhode Island