1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. KENT @ TOL
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Kent State Golden Flashes at Toledo Rockets

Savage Arena · at Toledo · Conference game
#151KENTKent State
@
#157TOLToledo
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
KENTThis seasonTOL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOL 79–77 · win probability TOL 60%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

KENT 2, TOL 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
KENTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: KENT 35.3%, TOL 29.5%. Defensive: KENT 70.7%, TOL 66.3%
TOLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: KENT 17.9%, TOL 14.7%. Forced: KENT 16.1%, TOL 17.9%
KENTSmall
KENT offense vs TOL defense
Offense 128th of 366 against a defense 234th, on the model’s ratings
TOLSmall
TOL offense vs KENT defense
Offense 121st of 366 against a defense 196th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: KENT plays 73.3 a game (17th fastest), TOL 69.5 (146th). Faster games mean more points
TOLSmall
Three-pointers
KENT hits 35.0% and allows 35.0%; TOL hits 37.0% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 44.9% and 32.5% of their shots
TOLSmall
Home court
TOL at home. This season: TOL 0-0 at home, KENT 0-0 away
TOLSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: KENT 19%, TOL 43%. Transfers in: KENT 5, TOL 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: KENT 51.4 and allows 52.1; TOL 54.5 and allows 54.3
Context
Schedule so far
KENT has played the 179th-hardest schedule, TOL the 172nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: KENT 43.5, TOL 30.5. Allowed: KENT 39.5, TOL 26.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TOL -2.9—
Total—155.8—
Projected score—KENT 76.5 · TOL 79.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTOL -1.6—
1H total72.8—
1H projected scoreKENT 35.6 · TOL 37.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Kent State has the better starters

Position by position: Kent State 2, Toledo 1, even 2
Kent StateBetterToledo
G C. Henry TR11.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.1 ast Score 66
TOLSmall
G A. Montas TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89
G C. Willis TR6.3 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G S. Jones TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast Not ranked
G Q. Woidke9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 69
KENTBig
G M. Strong5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 19
F C. Williams TR9.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 52
KENTSmall
F J. Ouwinga6.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27
F G. Nwabude TR5.1 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 57
Even
C A. Parks10.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 54
Kent StateBetterToledo
KENT offense128th of 366 · -3.5
KENTSmall
TOL defense234th of 366 · -6.2
KENT defense196th of 366 · -4.8
TOLSmall
TOL offense121st of 366 · -2.8
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Even
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestKENT betterTOL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Kent State
Guards
C. Henry29 min · TRC. Willis27 min · TRQ. Woidke20 minB. Moss5 minD. Lakatos1 minJ. SumlinNew
Forwards
C. Williams24 min · TRG. Nwabude19 min · TRL. Diouf13 min · TRD. Briscoe8 minL. Vanderwarker4 minJ. TownsendNew
Toledo
Guards
A. Montas31 min · TRS. Jones21 min · TRM. Strong18 minW. James9 minM. JohnsonNewM. MattucciNew
Forwards
J. Ouwinga19 minC. Riddle13 minT. Nwokolo2 minR. BarronNewR. PorterNew
Centers
A. Parks25 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
KENTTOL
Scoring
82.3 #31Points per game79.8 #71
1.12 #102Points per possession1.15 #62
73.3 #17Pace (possessions)69.5 #146
Shooting
51.4 #175Effective FG%54.5 #50
35.0 #1183-point %37.0 #29
44.9 #693-point attempt rate32.5 #323
43.5 #15Free throw rate30.5 #298
Possessions
17.9 #268Turnover rate14.7 #51
35.3 #39Offensive rebound rate29.5 #220
15.1 #81Assists per game15.6 #61
Defense
80.6 #328Points allowed77.4 #250
1.10 #221Points allowed per possession1.11 #257
52.1 #219Opponent effective FG%54.3 #308
35.0 #246Opponent 3-point %34.4 #215
16.1 #219Turnovers forced17.9 #104
70.7 #124Defensive rebound rate66.3 #313
6.5 #174Steals per game7.7 #67
3.3 #184Blocks per game2.9 #247
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kent State

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Illinois St58–79
  • Lvs Akron68–75
  • Wvs Ohio86–75
  • Wvs W Michigan86–78
  • W@ N Illinois102–76

A week or more of rest.

Toledo

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Akron76–79
  • Wvs UMass77–67
  • Wvs Bowling Green77–76
  • Wvs Buffalo99–78
  • L@ Miami OH72–74

A week or more of rest.