Ohio Bobcats at Central Michigan Chippewas: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETMcGuirk Arena · at C Michigan · Conference game

#128OHIOOhio

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Ohio and C Michigan
OHIO	This season	CMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OHIO 81–76 · win probability OHIO 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OHIO has more of the edges

OHIO 3, CMU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OHIOBig

OHIO offense vs CMU defense

Offense 81st of 366 against a defense 287th, on the model’s ratings

CMUSmall

Three-pointers

OHIO hits 30.1% and allows 36.8%; CMU hits 33.9% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 38.1% and 34.0% of their shots

OHIOSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OHIO 36.9, CMU 31.4. Allowed: OHIO 38.2, CMU 39.0

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: OHIO plays 71.0 a game (78th fastest), CMU 68.3 (212th). Faster games mean more points

OHIOSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OHIO 15.4%, CMU 18.1%. Forced: OHIO 16.2%, CMU 16.9%

CMUSmall

Home court

CMU at home. This season: CMU 0-0 at home, OHIO 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OHIO 28.4%, CMU 29.2%. Defensive: OHIO 67.2%, CMU 65.7%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OHIO 51.0 and allows 53.0; CMU 51.8 and allows 54.0

Context

Schedule so far

OHIO has played the 162nd-hardest schedule, CMU the 158th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OHIO 41%, CMU 43%. Transfers in: OHIO 2, CMU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

CMU offense vs OHIO defense

Offense 258th of 366 against a defense 260th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OHIO -5.1	—
Total	—	157.6	—
Projected score	—	OHIO 81.4 · CMU 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OHIO -3.2	—
1H total	73.6	—
1H projected score	OHIO 38.4 · CMU 35.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO WLLWL	12-18	40%	4-8	—
CMU WWWLL	16-13	55%	8-3	—

Venue/role: OHIO away; CMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO UUOOU	15-15	50%	13-17
CMU OOUUO	13-16	45%	8-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Ohio

No more games listed yet.

C Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs KENT	L81–83WO
Dec 12	@ EMU	L54–66LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

OHIO 8–0 CMUOHIO leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · OHIO has won the last 8 meetings · OHIO 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 30, 2025-26	OHIO 80 @ CMU 64	CMU +6.5	OHIO W
Feb 18, 2024-25	CMU 82 @ OHIO 84	OHIO -5.5	CMU W
Jan 4, 2024-25	OHIO 57 @ CMU 55	CMU +4.5	CMU W
Jan 16, 2023-24	CMU 61 @ OHIO 73	OHIO -10.5	OHIO W
Feb 18, 2022-23	OHIO 76 @ CMU 59	CMU +9.5	OHIO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ohio

30 games played

Straight up

13-17

43% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1743%

L W L L L L L W W W L W W W W L L W L L W W L L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L W L W L L L W W W L W L L W L L L L L W W L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U O O U O U U O O U U U O O O U O U U O O U O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARST	L 85-89	-3.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 6	vsILST	W 72-68	-1.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 11	@SMC	L 60-90	+17.5	L −12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 15	@LOU	L 81-106	+31.5	W +6.5	174.5	O 187
Nov 19	vsBCU	L 73-76	-6.5	L −9.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsGMU	L 69-92	+7.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsLMU	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 3	vsME	W 79-57	-12.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	vsMRSH	W 88-81	-3.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsSBU	W 88-83	+6.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsBGSU	L 58-68	+1.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 126
Dec 30	@CMU	W 80-64	-6.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 3	@EMU	W 68-67	-2.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 6	vsMASS	W 86-83	-4.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsBUF	W 91-80	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	O 171
Jan 13	@TOL	L 85-101	+2.5	L −13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@BALL	L 71-76	-5.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 147
Jan 20	vsNIU	W 80-77	-11.5	L −8.5	154.5	O 157
Jan 23	vsAKR	L 65-86	+6.5	L −14.5	167.5	U 151
Jan 27	@KENT	L 57-72	+5.5	L −9.5	162.5	U 129
Jan 31	@BUF	W 95-83	+2.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 178
Feb 3	vsWMU	W 91-71	-10.5	W +9.5	155.5	O 162
Feb 7	@ODU	L 72-78	-3.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 13	@M-OH	L 74-90	+7.5	L −8.5	163.5	O 164
Feb 17	vsBALL	W 69-57	-9.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 126
Feb 21	@NIU	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 28	vsTOL	L 67-79	-1.5	L −13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@MASS	L 82-94	+1.5	L −10.5	156.5	O 176
Mar 6	vsM-OH	L 108-110	+3.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 218
Mar 12	vsKENT	L 75-86	+3.5	L −7.5	161.5	U 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

−7.5

ILST

W 72-68

+2.5

SMC

L 60-90

−12.5

LOU

L 81-106

+6.5

BCU

L 73-76

−9.5

GMU

L 69-92

−15.5

LMU

L 58-70

−8.5

W 79-57

+9.5

MRSH

W 88-81

+3.5

SBU

W 88-83

+11.5

BGSU

L 58-68

−8.5

CMU

W 80-64

+9.5

EMU

W 68-67

−1.5

MASS

W 86-83

−1.5

BUF

W 91-80

+6.5

TOL

L 85-101

−13.5

BALL

L 71-76

−10.5

NIU

W 80-77

−8.5

AKR

L 65-86

−14.5

KENT

L 57-72

−9.5

BUF

W 95-83

+14.5

WMU

W 91-71

+9.5

ODU

L 72-78

−9.5

M-OH

L 74-90

−8.5

BALL

W 69-57

+2.5

NIU

W 74-66

+1.5

TOL

L 67-79

−13.5

MASS

L 82-94

−10.5

M-OH

L 108-110

+1.5

KENT

L 75-86

−7.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

+14.5

ILST

W 72-68

−21.5

SMC

L 60-90

+5.5

LOU

L 81-106

+12.5

BCU

L 73-76

−8.5

GMU

L 69-92

+18.5

LMU

L 58-70

−16.5

W 79-57

−2.5

MRSH

W 88-81

+11.5

SBU

W 88-83

+20.5

BGSU

L 58-68

−27.5

CMU

W 80-64

−7.5

EMU

W 68-67

−15.5

MASS

W 86-83

+8.5

BUF

W 91-80

+14.5

TOL

L 85-101

+24.5

BALL

L 71-76

−0.5

NIU

W 80-77

+2.5

AKR

L 65-86

−16.5

KENT

L 57-72

−33.5

BUF

W 95-83

+21.5

WMU

W 91-71

+6.5

ODU

L 72-78

−6.5

M-OH

L 74-90

+0.5

BALL

W 69-57

−19.5

NIU

W 74-66

−8.5

TOL

L 67-79

−12.5

MASS

L 82-94

+19.5

M-OH

L 108-110

+58.5

KENT

L 75-86

−0.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

C Michigan

29 games played

Straight up

8-21

28% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2128%

W L L W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W W L L W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1355%

W L W W L W L L L W L L W W W L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1645%

O U U U O O O O U U U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAPP	W 82-66	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 8	@BRAD	L 54-85	+9.5	L −21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 13	vsUSA	L 64-66	+5.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsCOPP	W 82-59	-10.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 20	vsNKU	L 66-90	-4.5	L −28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 22	@MARQ	L 71-85	+25.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 2	@LUC	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 7	@SLU	L 65-107	+24.5	L −17.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@STBK	L 55-78	+7.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 20	@NIU	L 73-74	+2.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 22	@WIS	L 61-88	+26.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 149
Dec 30	vsOHIO	L 64-80	+6.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 3	vsTOL	L 75-78	+7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@AKR	L 69-82	+23.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsKENT	W 87-85	+10.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 13	@M-OH	L 61-100	+15.5	L −23.5	158.5	O 161
Jan 20	vsBALL	L 67-68	+1.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 24	@WMU	L 65-77	+5.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 142
Jan 27	vsEMU	W 100-65	+2.5	W +37.5	139.5	O 165
Jan 31	vsBGSU	W 62-59	+8.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 3	@MASS	L 89-95	+11.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 184
Feb 7	@UL	L 80-85	+2.5	L −2.5	134.5	O 165
Feb 14	vsNIU	W 88-46	-4.5	W +37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@EMU	L 54-66	+4.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 120
Feb 21	vsWMU	W 83-70	-3.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 24	@KENT	L 81-83	+11.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 164
Feb 28	@BUF	W 75-70	+5.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsAKR	L 64-77	+11.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 141
Mar 6	@BALL	L 69-85	+2.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+14.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−21.5

USA

L 64-66

+3.5

COPP

W 82-59

+12.5

NKU

L 66-90

−28.5

MARQ

L 71-85

+11.5

LUC

L 72-83

−4.5

SLU

L 65-107

−17.5

STBK

L 55-78

−15.5

NIU

L 73-74

+1.5

WIS

L 61-88

−0.5

OHIO

L 64-80

−9.5

TOL

L 75-78

+4.5

AKR

L 69-82

+10.5

KENT

W 87-85

+12.5

M-OH

L 61-100

−23.5

BALL

L 67-68

+0.5

WMU

L 65-77

−6.5

EMU

W 100-65

+37.5

BGSU

W 62-59

+11.5

MASS

L 89-95

+5.5

L 80-85

−2.5

NIU

W 88-46

+37.5

EMU

L 54-66

−7.5

WMU

W 83-70

+9.5

KENT

L 81-83

+9.5

BUF

W 75-70

+10.5

AKR

L 64-77

−1.5

BALL

L 69-85

−13.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+5.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−8.5

USA

L 64-66

−12.5

COPP

W 82-59

−1.5

NKU

L 66-90

+9.5

MARQ

L 71-85

+3.5

LUC

L 72-83

+14.5

SLU

L 65-107

+11.5

STBK

L 55-78

−12.5

NIU

L 73-74

−2.5

WIS

L 61-88

−3.5

OHIO

L 64-80

−7.5

TOL

L 75-78

−5.5

AKR

L 69-82

−13.5

KENT

W 87-85

+15.5

M-OH

L 61-100

+2.5

BALL

L 67-68

−7.5

WMU

L 65-77

−6.5

EMU

W 100-65

+25.5

BGSU

W 62-59

−28.5

MASS

L 89-95

+31.5

L 80-85

+30.5

NIU

W 88-46

−12.5

EMU

L 54-66

−20.5

WMU

W 83-70

+2.5

KENT

L 81-83

+7.5

BUF

W 75-70

−6.5

AKR

L 64-77

−17.5

BALL

L 69-85

+19.5

over 13under 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ohio has the better starters

Position by position: Ohio 4, C Michigan 0, even 1

OhioBetterC Michigan

G J. Paveletzke17.8 pts · 3 reb · 5.1 ast Score 89

OHIOBig

G J. Petty TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

G K. D'Augustino TR19.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 79

OHIOSmall

G P. Phat Brooks11.1 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 46

G K. Mitchell TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 76

OHIOBig

G J. Whitaker5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 11

G J. Burris3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11

Even

G J. Kampen4.1 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

F J. Simmons15.4 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

OHIOBig

F K. Garner7.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35

OhioBetterC Michigan

OHIO offense81st of 366 · +0.5

OHIOBig

CMU defense287th of 366 · -7.2

OHIO defense260th of 366 · -6.7

Even

CMU offense258th of 366 · -8.0

Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players

OHIOBig

Backcourt-6.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player

OHIOBig

Frontcourt-1.1 · 1 player

Bench-0.4 · 1 player

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestOHIO betterCMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Ohio

Guards

J. Paveletzke37 minK. D'Augustino33 min · TRK. Mitchell31 min · TRJ. Burris10 minC. ReeseNewS. LedegenNew

Forwards

J. Simmons28 minK. Kuany8 minZ. MosleyNewC. TrudicNewJ. BowensNewD. MakitanNew

Centers

M. IckeNew

C Michigan

Guards

J. Petty31 min · TRP. Phat Brooks29 minJ. Whitaker18 minJ. Kampen14 minJ. HackettNewU. AmeneNew

Forwards

K. Garner25 minT. AmbroseNewN. UsenNewJ. BascomNew

Centers

C. LuczynskiNewK. AburashedNewB. MendozaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OHIO76.7 #126

CMU71.7 #256

Points per possession

OHIO1.08 #194

CMU1.05 #248

Pace (possessions)

OHIO71.0 #78

CMU68.3 #212

Shooting

Effective FG%

OHIO51.0 #197

CMU51.8 #158

3-point %

OHIO30.1 #341

CMU33.9 #181

3-point attempt rate

OHIO38.1 #211

CMU34.0 #293

Free throw rate

OHIO36.9 #132

CMU31.4 #269

Possessions

Turnover rate

OHIO15.4 #97

CMU18.1 #279

Offensive rebound rate

OHIO28.4 #248

CMU29.2 #230

Assists per game

OHIO12.6 #242

CMU14.4 #120

Defense

Points allowed

OHIO80.0 #319

CMU77.7 #258

Points allowed per possession

OHIO1.13 #295

CMU1.14 #301

Opponent effective FG%

OHIO53.0 #269

CMU54.0 #299

Opponent 3-point %

OHIO36.8 #340

CMU35.5 #282

Turnovers forced

OHIO16.2 #213

CMU16.9 #157

Defensive rebound rate

OHIO67.2 #289

CMU65.7 #323

Steals per game

OHIO5.7 #267

CMU6.1 #219

Blocks per game

OHIO3.4 #163

CMU4.1 #64

OHIO		CMU
Scoring
76.7 #126	Points per game	71.7 #256
1.08 #194	Points per possession	1.05 #248
71.0 #78	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #212
Shooting
51.0 #197	Effective FG%	51.8 #158
30.1 #341	3-point %	33.9 #181
38.1 #211	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #293
36.9 #132	Free throw rate	31.4 #269
Possessions
15.4 #97	Turnover rate	18.1 #279
28.4 #248	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #230
12.6 #242	Assists per game	14.4 #120
Defense
80.0 #319	Points allowed	77.7 #258
1.13 #295	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #301
53.0 #269	Opponent effective FG%	54.0 #299
36.8 #340	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #282
16.2 #213	Turnovers forced	16.9 #157
67.2 #289	Defensive rebound rate	65.7 #323
5.7 #267	Steals per game	6.1 #219
3.4 #163	Blocks per game	4.1 #64

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Ohio

13-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kent State75–86
Lvs Miami OH108–110
L@ UMass82–94
Lvs Toledo67–79
W@ N Illinois74–66

A week or more of rest.

C Michigan

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Ball State69–85
Lvs Akron64–77
W@ Buffalo75–70
L@ Kent State81–83
Wvs W Michigan83–70

A week or more of rest.

Ohio Bobcats at Central Michigan Chippewas

What could decide it: OHIO has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Ohio

C Michigan

Ohio has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Ohio

C Michigan