Charleston Southern Buccaneers at South Carolina State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETSmith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center · at SC State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Charleston So and SC State
CHSO	This season	SCST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHSO 78–74 · win probability CHSO 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CHSO has more of the edges

CHSO 4, SCST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CHSOBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHSO 54.1 and allows 47.0; SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9

SCSTBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHSO 18.6%, SCST 20.8%. Forced: CHSO 12.8%, SCST 18.8%

SCSTBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHSO 30.5, SCST 41.0. Allowed: CHSO 43.3, SCST 51.9

CHSOSmall

Three-pointers

CHSO hits 35.6% and allows 31.9%; SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 49.5% and 33.3% of their shots

CHSOSmall

CHSO offense vs SCST defense

Offense 268th of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

CHSOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHSO 29.4%, SCST 31.4%. Defensive: CHSO 69.7%, SCST 62.4%

SCSTSmall

Home court

SCST at home. This season: SCST 0-0 at home, CHSO 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 73 possessions: CHSO plays 75.1 a game (5th fastest), SCST 70.3 (102nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHSO 22%, SCST 34%. Transfers in: CHSO 3, SCST 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

CHSO has played the 297th-hardest schedule, SCST the 317th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

SCST offense vs CHSO defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 358th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CHSO -3.7	—
Total	—	151.8	—
Projected score	—	CHSO 77.8 · SCST 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CHSO -2.3	—
1H total	71.0	—
1H projected score	CHSO 36.6 · SCST 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHSO LLWWW	14-15	48%	7-9	—
SCST LWWWL	13-17	43%	5-4	—

Venue/role: CHSO away; SCST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHSO UOOOO	19-10	66%	12-17
SCST UUOOU	15-15	50%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHSO	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
SCST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Charleston So

No more games listed yet.

SC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	@ NKU	L47–58LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CHSO 2–2 SCSTSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · CHSO 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 8, 2025-26	SCST 44 @ CHSO 84	CHSO -12.5	CHSO W
Dec 9, 2024-25	CHSO 63 @ SCST 82	SCST -1.5	SCST W
Dec 2, 2023-24	SCST 64 @ CHSO 66	CHSO -1.5	CHSO W
Dec 21, 2021-22	SCST 75 vs CHSO 65	CHSO +4.5	SCST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Charleston So

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-10

66% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L W L L W W L L W W L W W W L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

L W L L W W W L W W W W L L W W L L L L L L W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1066%

O O U O O U U U U O O U O O U O O O O U U O O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VT	L 67-98	+18.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 165
Nov 10	@CIT	W 96-86	-2.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 13	@AAMU	L 64-68	+1.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 132
Nov 14	vsLIN	L 77-83	+2.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 18	vsIUIN	W 103-91	+1.5	W +13.5	188.5	O 194
Nov 21	@ECU	W 77-65	+13.5	W +25.5	157.5	U 142
Nov 28	@SC	L 62-74	+17.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 136
Dec 2	@UTM	L 56-73	+3.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 129
Dec 8	vsSCST	W 84-44	-12.5	W +27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 18	vsUNF	W 113-90	-10.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 203
Dec 21	@FUR	L 76-84	+10.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 28	@RICH	W 77-72	+11.5	W +16.5	159.5	U 149
Dec 31	@GWEB	W 89-79	-12.5	L −2.5	163.5	O 168
Jan 3	vsUNCA	W 86-83	-4.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 169
Jan 7	@WIN	L 77-81	+8.5	W +4.5	166.5	U 158
Jan 10	vsHPU	L 82-84	+8.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 14	vsUPST	L 81-86	-6.5	L −11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 21	@PRES	L 83-87	-1.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 170
Jan 23	@LONG	L 79-81	+1.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsRAD	L 75-84	+1.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 159
Feb 4	@HPU	L 55-80	+14.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 135
Feb 7	@UPST	L 94-100	-1.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsPRES	W 84-67	-1.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 151
Feb 14	@RAD	L 80-90	+4.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 170
Feb 17	vsGWEB	W 75-66	-16.5	L −7.5	161.5	U 141
Feb 21	vsLONG	L 96-107	-2.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 203
Feb 26	vsWIN	W 86-84	+8.5	W +10.5	164.5	O 170
Feb 28	@UNCA	W 92-75	+4.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 167
Mar 6	vsWIN	L 81-86	+6.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 67-98

−12.5

CIT

W 96-86

+7.5

AAMU

L 64-68

−2.5

LIN

L 77-83

−3.5

IUIN

W 103-91

+13.5

ECU

W 77-65

+25.5

L 62-74

+5.5

UTM

L 56-73

−13.5

SCST

W 84-44

+27.5

UNF

W 113-90

+12.5

FUR

L 76-84

+2.5

RICH

W 77-72

+16.5

GWEB

W 89-79

−2.5

UNCA

W 86-83

−1.5

WIN

L 77-81

+4.5

HPU

L 82-84

+6.5

UPST

L 81-86

−11.5

PRES

L 83-87

−5.5

LONG

L 79-81

−0.5

RAD

L 75-84

−7.5

HPU

L 55-80

−10.5

UPST

L 94-100

−7.5

PRES

W 84-67

+15.5

RAD

L 80-90

−5.5

GWEB

W 75-66

−7.5

LONG

L 96-107

−13.5

WIN

W 86-84

+10.5

UNCA

W 92-75

+21.5

WIN

L 81-86

+1.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 67-98

+18.5

CIT

W 96-86

+36.5

AAMU

L 64-68

−20.5

LIN

L 77-83

+4.5

IUIN

W 103-91

+5.5

ECU

W 77-65

−15.5

L 62-74

−14.5

UTM

L 56-73

−18.5

SCST

W 84-44

−28.5

UNF

W 113-90

+39.5

FUR

L 76-84

+4.5

RICH

W 77-72

−10.5

GWEB

W 89-79

+4.5

UNCA

W 86-83

+17.5

WIN

L 77-81

−8.5

HPU

L 82-84

+2.5

UPST

L 81-86

+11.5

PRES

L 83-87

+22.5

LONG

L 79-81

+3.5

RAD

L 75-84

−3.5

HPU

L 55-80

−27.5

UPST

L 94-100

+43.5

PRES

W 84-67

+4.5

RAD

L 80-90

+8.5

GWEB

W 75-66

−20.5

LONG

L 96-107

+48.5

WIN

W 86-84

+5.5

UNCA

W 92-75

+18.5

WIN

L 81-86

+2.5

over 19under 10avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC State

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134
Feb 4	vsUMES	W 63-54	+3.5	W +12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@HOW	L 57-85	+14.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 16	vsCOPP	L 57-59	-4.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 18	vsNCCU	W 85-72	+2.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NORF	L 71-90	+10.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 25	vsMORG	L 83-90	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	@UMES	L 57-69	+5.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	@DSU	W 61-59	+3.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NCCU	W 80-64	+7.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsNORF	W 88-82	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsHOW	L 61-78	+15.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

UMES

W 63-54

+12.5

HOW

L 57-85

−13.5

COPP

L 57-59

−6.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+15.5

NORF

L 71-90

−8.5

MORG

L 83-90

−5.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

+5.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+23.5

NORF

W 88-82

+13.5

HOW

L 61-78

−1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

UMES

W 63-54

−16.5

HOW

L 57-85

+0.5

COPP

L 57-59

−22.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+20.5

NORF

L 71-90

+20.5

MORG

L 83-90

+19.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

−14.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+3.5

NORF

W 88-82

+25.5

HOW

L 61-78

−6.5

over 15under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Charleston So 1, SC State 1, even 3

Charleston SoBetterSC State

G J. Taylor4.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 2

SCSTSmall

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

G N. Errica TR1.3 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

F L. Olalere4.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26

CHSOSmall

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

F D. Brafford1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

F M. Majok TR2.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

Charleston SoBetterSC State

CHSO offense268th of 366 · -8.1

CHSOSmall

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

CHSO defense358th of 366 · -10.2

Even

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

Backcourt-3.6 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 3 players

CHSOBig

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

Bench+0.0 · 1 player

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestCHSO betterSCST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Charleston So

Guards

J. Taylor21 minN. Errica4 min · TRJ. McLambNewJ. CrawfordNewA. RuffoloNewR. BrooksNew

Forwards

L. Olalere16 minD. Brafford7 minM. Majok5 min · TRT. Deng1 min · TRM. LeslieNew

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHSO80.9 #44

SCST67.4 #325

Points per possession

CHSO1.08 #188

SCST0.96 #353

Pace (possessions)

CHSO75.1 #5

SCST70.3 #102

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHSO54.1 #66

SCST46.8 #341

3-point %

CHSO35.6 #78

SCST34.0 #173

3-point attempt rate

CHSO49.5 #16

SCST33.3 #312

Free throw rate

CHSO30.5 #296

SCST41.0 #47

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHSO18.6 #302

SCST20.8 #355

Offensive rebound rate

CHSO29.4 #223

SCST31.4 #146

Assists per game

CHSO15.7 #57

SCST12.1 #281

Defense

Points allowed

CHSO81.0 #332

SCST80.6 #327

Points allowed per possession

CHSO1.08 #150

SCST1.15 #318

Opponent effective FG%

CHSO47.0 #21

SCST53.9 #296

Opponent 3-point %

CHSO31.9 #58

SCST33.5 #155

Turnovers forced

CHSO12.8 #362

SCST18.8 #59

Defensive rebound rate

CHSO69.7 #174

SCST62.4 #362

Steals per game

CHSO4.9 #339

SCST6.9 #137

Blocks per game

CHSO4.9 #21

SCST3.8 #98

CHSO		SCST
Scoring
80.9 #44	Points per game	67.4 #325
1.08 #188	Points per possession	0.96 #353
75.1 #5	Pace (possessions)	70.3 #102
Shooting
54.1 #66	Effective FG%	46.8 #341
35.6 #78	3-point %	34.0 #173
49.5 #16	3-point attempt rate	33.3 #312
30.5 #296	Free throw rate	41.0 #47
Possessions
18.6 #302	Turnover rate	20.8 #355
29.4 #223	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #146
15.7 #57	Assists per game	12.1 #281
Defense
81.0 #332	Points allowed	80.6 #327
1.08 #150	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #318
47.0 #21	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #296
31.9 #58	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #155
12.8 #362	Turnovers forced	18.8 #59
69.7 #174	Defensive rebound rate	62.4 #362
4.9 #339	Steals per game	6.9 #137
4.9 #21	Blocks per game	3.8 #98

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Charleston So

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Winthrop81–86
W@ UNC Asheville92–75
Wvs Winthrop86–84
Lvs Longwood96–107
Wvs Gardner-Webb75–66

A week or more of rest.

SC State

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-8 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard61–78
Wvs Norfolk St88–82
W@ NC Central80–64
W@ Delaware St61–59
L@ MD Eastern57–69

A week or more of rest.

Charleston Southern Buccaneers at South Carolina State Bulldogs

What could decide it: CHSO has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Charleston So

SC State

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Charleston So

SC State