Seattle U Redhawks at San José State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETProvident Credit Union Event Center · at San José St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Seattle U and San José St
SEA	This season	SJSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJSU 71–71 · win probability SJSU 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SEA has more of the edges

SEA 4, SJSU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SEABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SEA 49.8 and allows 48.4; SJSU 49.7 and allows 57.1

SEASmall

Three-pointers

SEA hits 33.7% and allows 32.1%; SJSU hits 35.3% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 39.4% and 38.3% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SEA plays 69.1 a game (175th fastest), SJSU 66.0 (315th). Faster games mean more points

SEASmall

SJSU offense vs SEA defense

Offense 141st of 366 against a defense 76th, on the model’s ratings

SJSUSmall

Home court

SJSU at home. This season: SJSU 0-0 at home, SEA 0-0 away

SEASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SEA 50%, SJSU 24%. Transfers in: SEA 3, SJSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SEA 34.2, SJSU 33.4. Allowed: SEA 33.0, SJSU 35.4

Even

SEA offense vs SJSU defense

Offense 183rd of 366 against a defense 151st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SEA has played the 114th-hardest schedule, SJSU the 85th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SEA 23.7%, SJSU 29.3%. Defensive: SEA 68.2%, SJSU 63.5%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SEA 16.7%, SJSU 15.1%. Forced: SEA 21.2%, SJSU 17.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SEA -0.1	—
Total	—	141.9	—
Projected score	—	SEA 71 · SJSU 70.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SEA -0.2	—
1H total	66.4	—
1H projected score	SEA 33.3 · SJSU 33.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA WLLWW	15-18	45%	5-8	—
SJSU LLLWW	16-16	50%	6-9	—

Venue/role: SEA away; SJSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA OUUUO	13-20	39%	19-14
SJSU OUOOO	21-11	66%	8-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
SJSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Seattle U

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	vs APSU	No recent meeting

San José St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs LBSU	W89–83LO
Dec 12	vs SUU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Seattle U

33 games played

Straight up

19-14

58% wins

Against the spread

15-18

45% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1458%

W L W W W W L W W W W L W L L L W L W L L W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1845%

L L W L W W L L L W L L W W L L W L W L L L L W W W W L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

O U O O U U O O O U U U U U O U U U U U U O U O U O U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEN	W 84-73	-13.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsCP	L 71-73	-10.5	L −12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	vsEWU	W 94-67	-8.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 15	vsIDST	W 83-74	-11.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 157
Nov 21	@STAN	W 77-69	+10.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 28	vsTXST	W 66-52	-7.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 118
Nov 29	vsUCSB	L 71-74	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 145
Dec 7	vsUTEP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 17	@UCD	W 79-78	-2.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 157
Dec 19	vsWASH	W 70-66	+7.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 136
Dec 22	@UTSA	W 71-68	-10.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 28	vsSF	L 59-67	-2.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsWSU	W 69-55	-6.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 124
Jan 2	@GONZ	L 72-80	+24.5	W +16.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 4	@SMC	L 76-93	+11.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 8	@ORST	L 55-68	-4.5	L −17.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 15	vsUSD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 17	vsGONZ	L 50-71	+9.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 121
Jan 21	vsLMU	W 69-59	-4.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 24	@PAC	L 54-56	+1.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 110
Jan 28	@WSU	L 58-70	+1.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 128
Feb 4	vsPEPP	W 83-81	-12.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 7	@PORT	L 53-54	-3.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 107
Feb 11	@SCU	L 72-84	+12.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 15	vsORST	W 60-50	-6.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 110
Feb 18	vsSMC	L 70-72	+9.5	W +7.5	133.5	O 142
Feb 21	vsPORT	W 71-59	-7.5	W +4.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 25	@PEPP	W 87-80	-7.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 167
Feb 28	@LMU	W 71-66	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 6	vsUSD	W 58-56	-8.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 114
Mar 7	vsPAC	L 58-61	+1.5	L −1.5	129.5	U 119
Mar 17	vsSTMN	W 67-52	-2.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 119
Mar 22	@AUB	L 85-91	+14.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

−2.5

L 71-73

−12.5

EWU

W 94-67

+18.5

IDST

W 83-74

−2.5

STAN

W 77-69

+18.5

TXST

W 66-52

+6.5

UCSB

L 71-74

−5.5

UTEP

W 75-68

−5.5

UCD

W 79-78

−1.5

WASH

W 70-66

+11.5

UTSA

W 71-68

−7.5

L 59-67

−10.5

WSU

W 69-55

+7.5

GONZ

L 72-80

+16.5

SMC

L 76-93

−5.5

ORST

L 55-68

−17.5

USD

W 75-64

+1.5

GONZ

L 50-71

−11.5

LMU

W 69-59

+5.5

PAC

L 54-56

−0.5

WSU

L 58-70

−10.5

PEPP

W 83-81

−10.5

PORT

L 53-54

−4.5

SCU

L 72-84

+0.5

ORST

W 60-50

+3.5

SMC

L 70-72

+7.5

PORT

W 71-59

+4.5

PEPP

W 87-80

−0.5

LMU

W 71-66

+6.5

USD

W 58-56

−6.5

PAC

L 58-61

−1.5

STMN

W 67-52

+12.5

AUB

L 85-91

+8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 18avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

+20.5

L 71-73

−20.5

EWU

W 94-67

+12.5

IDST

W 83-74

+18.5

STAN

W 77-69

−6.5

TXST

W 66-52

−18.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+2.5

UTEP

W 75-68

+6.5

UCD

W 79-78

+13.5

WASH

W 70-66

−15.5

UTSA

W 71-68

−9.5

L 59-67

−20.5

WSU

W 69-55

−20.5

GONZ

L 72-80

−3.5

SMC

L 76-93

+29.5

ORST

L 55-68

−16.5

USD

W 75-64

−8.5

GONZ

L 50-71

−29.5

LMU

W 69-59

−13.5

PAC

L 54-56

−27.5

WSU

L 58-70

−14.5

PEPP

W 83-81

+24.5

PORT

L 53-54

−36.5

SCU

L 72-84

+8.5

ORST

W 60-50

−26.5

SMC

L 70-72

+8.5

PORT

W 71-59

−10.5

PEPP

W 87-80

+21.5

LMU

W 71-66

+0.5

USD

W 58-56

−25.5

PAC

L 58-61

−10.5

STMN

W 67-52

−26.5

AUB

L 85-91

+30.5

over 13under 20avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

San José St

32 games played

Straight up

8-24

25% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2425%

L L L W L W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L W W L W L W L W L L W L L W L L W L W W W L W W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UTAH	L 75-84	+11.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	@UCSB	L 74-85	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 13	@MSU	L 60-79	+24.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 21	vsSOU	W 80-66	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 25	vsTLSA	L 51-81	+5.5	L −24.5	149.5	U 132
Nov 26	vsLUC	W 63-51	-1.5	W +10.5	136.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsUCI	L 63-72	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 5	vsUSD	W 86-69	-6.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 155
Dec 9	vsLBSU	W 89-83	-7.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 13	vsSTAN	L 82-86	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 20	@UNM	L 65-88	+16.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	vsSDSU	L 68-81	+11.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	@USU	L 78-96	+22.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 174
Jan 6	vsFRES	L 55-70	+1.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@GCU	L 58-76	+16.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 13	vsAF	W 70-62	-5.5	W +2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsUNLV	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@NEV	L 54-87	+16.5	L −16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@WYO	L 62-66	+13.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsBOIS	L 58-89	+12.5	L −18.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 31	vsUNM	L 80-90	+15.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 7	@CSU	L 57-65	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@UNLV	L 75-82	+12.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsGCU	L 79-94	+11.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 173
Feb 17	vsNEV	W 87-71	+10.5	W +26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	@BOIS	L 69-84	+18.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 24	@AF	W 86-80	-6.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	vsCSU	L 73-85	+4.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 3	@FRES	L 68-82	+7.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	vsWYO	L 78-88	+6.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Mar 11	vsBOIS	W 84-74	+14.5	W +24.5	146.5	O 158
Mar 12	vsUNM	L 77-93	+16.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+2.5

UCSB

L 74-85

−1.5

MSU

L 60-79

+5.5

SOU

W 80-66

+8.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−24.5

LUC

W 63-51

+10.5

UCI

L 63-72

−5.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

−1.5

STAN

L 82-86

+4.5

UNM

L 65-88

−6.5

SDSU

L 68-81

−1.5

USU

L 78-96

+4.5

FRES

L 55-70

−13.5

GCU

L 58-76

−1.5

W 70-62

+2.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−6.5

NEV

L 54-87

−16.5

WYO

L 62-66

+9.5

BOIS

L 58-89

−18.5

UNM

L 80-90

+5.5

CSU

L 57-65

+7.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+5.5

GCU

L 79-94

−3.5

NEV

W 87-71

+26.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+3.5

W 86-80

−0.5

CSU

L 73-85

−7.5

FRES

L 68-82

−6.5

WYO

L 78-88

−3.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+24.5

UNM

L 77-93

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+12.5

UCSB

L 74-85

+12.5

MSU

L 60-79

−4.5

SOU

W 80-66

−4.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−17.5

LUC

W 63-51

−22.5

UCI

L 63-72

−4.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

+30.5

STAN

L 82-86

+22.5

UNM

L 65-88

+0.5

SDSU

L 68-81

+7.5

USU

L 78-96

+22.5

FRES

L 55-70

−24.5

GCU

L 58-76

−7.5

W 70-62

+3.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−8.5

NEV

L 54-87

+3.5

WYO

L 62-66

−13.5

BOIS

L 58-89

+5.5

UNM

L 80-90

+21.5

CSU

L 57-65

−16.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+7.5

GCU

L 79-94

+33.5

NEV

W 87-71

+16.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+6.5

W 86-80

+20.5

CSU

L 73-85

+6.5

FRES

L 68-82

−1.5

WYO

L 78-88

+17.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+11.5

UNM

L 77-93

+15.5

over 21under 11avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Seattle U has the better starters

Position by position: Seattle U 1, San José St 0, even 4

Seattle UBetterSan José St

G T. Boston TR14.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 76

SEABig

G P. Goodarzi8.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

G M. Arington4.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 4 ast Score 41

No call

G J. Hannah7.5 pts · 1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

F J. Yeo12.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 45

No call

F Z. Eddine Bedri TR12.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.2 ast Not ranked

F W. Heimbrodt12.7 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 72

No call

F R. Vaihola TR5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

F T. Thrastarson TR9.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54

Even

F M. Cook TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 61

Seattle UBetterSan José St

SEA offense183rd of 366 · -5.7

Even

SJSU defense151st of 366 · -3.3

SEA defense76th of 366 · +0.6

SEASmall

SJSU offense141st of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt-0.2 · 2 players

SEASmall

Backcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.6 · 3 players

SJSUSmall

Frontcourt+2.3 · 3 players

Bench+0.1 · 3 players

SJSUSmall

Bench+1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestSEA betterSJSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Seattle U

Guards

T. Boston33 min · TRM. Arington31 minK. HansenNewM. WilliamsNewJ. WhiteNewJ. HarshmanNew

Forwards

J. Yeo32 minW. Heimbrodt32 minT. Thrastarson23 min · TRY. Kawashima3 minR. Adams2 min

Centers

H. Dzellat8 min · TRL. CoulibalyNew

San José St

Guards

P. Goodarzi26 minJ. Hannah22 minM. Mason20 min · TRJ. Chammaa17 min · TRR. GreenNewC. KruegerNew

Forwards

Z. Eddine Bedri24 min · TRR. Vaihola21 min · TRM. Cook21 min · TRK. Martin8 min · TRL. HowardNew

Centers

M. Dau NyangolNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SEA70.1 #283

SJSU70.8 #269

Points per possession

SEA1.01 #312

SJSU1.07 #203

Pace (possessions)

SEA69.1 #175

SJSU66.0 #315

Shooting

Effective FG%

SEA49.8 #249

SJSU49.7 #255

3-point %

SEA33.7 #186

SJSU35.3 #97

3-point attempt rate

SEA39.4 #185

SJSU38.3 #204

Free throw rate

SEA34.2 #201

SJSU33.4 #225

Possessions

Turnover rate

SEA16.7 #178

SJSU15.1 #77

Offensive rebound rate

SEA23.7 #347

SJSU29.3 #225

Assists per game

SEA13.2 #201

SJSU10.3 #353

Defense

Points allowed

SEA68.2 #34

SJSU79.2 #305

Points allowed per possession

SEA0.99 #20

SJSU1.20 #359

Opponent effective FG%

SEA48.4 #46

SJSU57.1 #359

Opponent 3-point %

SEA32.1 #69

SJSU36.0 #305

Turnovers forced

SEA21.2 #9

SJSU17.4 #123

Defensive rebound rate

SEA68.2 #249

SJSU63.5 #354

Steals per game

SEA7.8 #52

SJSU5.8 #259

Blocks per game

SEA4.9 #20

SJSU2.2 #333

SEA		SJSU
Scoring
70.1 #283	Points per game	70.8 #269
1.01 #312	Points per possession	1.07 #203
69.1 #175	Pace (possessions)	66.0 #315
Shooting
49.8 #249	Effective FG%	49.7 #255
33.7 #186	3-point %	35.3 #97
39.4 #185	3-point attempt rate	38.3 #204
34.2 #201	Free throw rate	33.4 #225
Possessions
16.7 #178	Turnover rate	15.1 #77
23.7 #347	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #225
13.2 #201	Assists per game	10.3 #353
Defense
68.2 #34	Points allowed	79.2 #305
0.99 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #359
48.4 #46	Opponent effective FG%	57.1 #359
32.1 #69	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #305
21.2 #9	Turnovers forced	17.4 #123
68.2 #249	Defensive rebound rate	63.5 #354
7.8 #52	Steals per game	5.8 #259
4.9 #20	Blocks per game	2.2 #333

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Seattle U

19-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn85–91
Wvs St Thomas67–52
Lvs Pacific58–61
Wvs San Diego58–56
W@ LMU71–66

A week or more of rest.

San José St

8-24 in 2025-26 overall · 4-18 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico77–93
Wvs Boise St84–74
Lvs Wyoming78–88
L@ Fresno St68–82
Lvs Colorado St73–85

A week or more of rest.

Seattle U Redhawks at San José State Spartans

What could decide it: SEA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

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ATS History · 2025-26

Seattle U

San José St

Seattle U has the better starters

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Matchup stats

Seattle U

San José St