1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. UND @ UTEP
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at UTEP Miners

Don Haskins Center · at UTEP
#336UNDNorth Dakota
@
#190UTEPUTEP
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNDThis seasonUTEP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTEP 79–68 · win probability UTEP 82%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UTEP has more of the edges

UND 3, UTEP 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNDBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UND 14.1%, UTEP 17.4%. Forced: UND 19.3%, UTEP 18.0%
UTEPBig
UND offense vs UTEP defense
Offense 304th of 366 against a defense 173rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UND has played the 293rd-hardest schedule, UTEP the 163rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UTEPBig
UTEP offense vs UND defense
Offense 226th of 366 against a defense 353rd, on the model’s ratings
UTEPBig
Three-pointers
UND hits 32.7% and allows 37.1%; UTEP hits 33.9% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 40.6% and 40.3% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UND plays 69.7 a game (133rd fastest), UTEP 66.6 (291st). Faster games mean more points
UTEPSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UND 49.5 and allows 56.5; UTEP 48.3 and allows 51.5
UTEPSmall
Home court
UTEP at home. This season: UTEP 0-0 at home, UND 0-0 away
UNDSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UND 37.9, UTEP 33.4. Allowed: UND 43.8, UTEP 42.0
UNDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UND 24%, UTEP 0%. Transfers in: UND 2, UTEP 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UND 27.4%, UTEP 26.2%. Defensive: UND 67.6%, UTEP 67.2%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UTEP -10.3—
Total—146.6—
Projected score—UND 68.2 · UTEP 78.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUTEP -6.0—
1H total68.6—
1H projected scoreUND 31.3 · UTEP 37.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UTEP has the better starters

Position by position: North Dakota 0, UTEP 3, even 2
North DakotaBetterUTEP
G Z. Kraft7.7 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23
UTEPSmall
G L. Moeller TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.7 ast Score 46
G S. Hincapie TR4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
UTEPSmall
G J. Whiting TR10.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31
G T. Wagner TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Miller TR12.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 66
F K. Ouse0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Jackson TR6.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53
C J. Jones2.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 1
UTEPBig
F R. Cason TR3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 43
North DakotaBetterUTEP
UND offense304th of 366 · -9.5
UTEPBig
UTEP defense173rd of 366 · -3.9
UND defense353rd of 366 · -9.9
UTEPBig
UTEP offense226th of 366 · -6.9
Backcourt-4.8 · 3 players
UTEPSmall
Backcourt-3.1 · 4 players
Frontcourt-4.5 · 2 players
UTEPBig
Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUND betterUTEP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Dakota
Guards
Z. Kraft25 minS. Hincapie16 min · TRT. Wagner7 min · TRL. WinkelNewZ. ParksNewJ. MooreNew
Forwards
K. Ouse6 minA. RadojevicNewJ. ThomasNewD. ElyNew
Centers
J. Jones19 min
UTEP
Guards
L. Moeller33 min · TRJ. Whiting32 min · TRR. Miller25 min · TRR. Jackson18 min · TRC. McDanielsNewD. CrissNew
Forwards
R. Cason15 min · TRA. Cassia10 min · TRJ. Ratowski7 min · TRM. KelvinNewI. WardNewI. PerasovicNew
Centers
D. TarpleyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNDUTEP
Scoring
74.2 #187Points per game66.4 #340
1.07 #214Points per possession1.00 #326
69.7 #133Pace (possessions)66.6 #291
Shooting
49.5 #272Effective FG%48.3 #309
32.7 #2463-point %33.9 #178
40.6 #1553-point attempt rate40.3 #163
37.9 #106Free throw rate33.4 #227
Possessions
14.1 #27Turnover rate17.4 #229
27.4 #284Offensive rebound rate26.2 #319
10.8 #343Assists per game11.0 #338
Defense
79.6 #310Points allowed72.7 #125
1.14 #306Points allowed per possession1.09 #196
56.5 #353Opponent effective FG%51.5 #187
37.1 #345Opponent 3-point %34.0 #182
19.3 #36Turnovers forced18.0 #98
67.6 #276Defensive rebound rate67.2 #293
7.9 #49Steals per game7.1 #113
2.5 #307Blocks per game3.5 #149
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Dakota

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Dakota St62–70
  • Wvs St Thomas67–66
  • Wvs Denver83–67
  • L@ N Dakota St63–96
  • L@ S Dakota St83–91

A week or more of rest.

UTEP

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Jax State61–64
  • Wvs Kennesaw St78–71
  • L@ Western KY65–97
  • L@ MTSU67–77
  • L@ New Mexico St63–67

A week or more of rest.